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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

etudiant 4th Apr 2021 22:17


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11022208)
Iím aware of the bridge - and Russia stopping Ukrainian and other shipping going under it in contravention of the right of free passage (The crews just having been freed) - but bridges can be cut, which is why a land bridge is preferable. And of course preferable if you want to link to Moldova and limit Ukrainian access to the sea.

One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.

The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.

All good wars start with plausible claims on the various sides.
Here we have the Crimea, where Russia spent a lot of blood in the 1850s and the 1940s, reassigned to the Ukraine by Khrushchev, a native Ukrainian, while all were part of the USSR in the 1950s.
Then we have collapse of the USSR and the rise of the CIS, then the Maidan revolt spnsored by Ms Victoria ( F*** the EU) Nuland, at a cost of $5B according to some intercepts of her discussions.
Later the Ukrainian leader Ms. Tymoshenko was recorded stating that she would like to get rid of her Russian minority(30% of the people).and chose to outlaw Russian language teaching in elementary schools.
The Donbass revolt soon followed, plus the popular vote for returning the Crimea to Russia.
So now we have a civil war, in an artificial country ruled by a deeply corrupt elite held hostage to foreign paymasters, with one side supported by another country also ruled by a deeply corrupt elite, albeit with local roots.
A happy playground for the various spooks and influence peddlers, at the expense of the people trying to survive there.
In retrospect, perhaps we should bring back the Hapsburgs, they were a lot less bloody minded and no more incompetent.

Aegis8 5th Apr 2021 06:59

The art of civil discourse is long lost.

One part that is missing here, is that Ukraine has been speaking of and planning their spring offensive on Donbas for several months and have been actively moving their military units into position. Which is in contravention of the Minsk agreements and add to this more belligerent words of retaking Crimea by force. This puts us squarely where we are now, a military response from Russia.

This response is now being used by the west to paint Ukraine as the victim, instead of the instigator.

If Ukraine had delivered on their requirements under the Minsk agreements, we would not have the current situation. Peace would reign in the region and people could get back to living normally.

Deltasierra010 5th Apr 2021 12:08

Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the stand off between Russia and Ukraine, they would be crazy to start a fight they are going to loose. Biden might have family contacts there, getting involved in Russiaís backyard is a really bad idea, Putin might be loosing popularity, defending National interests will put him right back at the top of the polls.

Aegis8 5th Apr 2021 12:27

Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.

As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.

ORAC 5th Apr 2021 13:04

We will see who takes major military action first.

I say major because the situation in Eastern Ukraine is so murky that a casus bellum is far to easy to create and claim.

fitliker 5th Apr 2021 16:25

Nothing murky about using artillery against civilians.
Cutting the water off .
Cutting the power off .
If NATO used those tactics in Afghanistan they would have been home in three months , instead of playing at sitting ducks for almost two decades .

Finningley Boy 5th Apr 2021 19:05


Originally Posted by Aegis8 (Post 11022676)
Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.

As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.

I'm sure I read or heard a couple of days ago that President Biden told the Ukraine that they are not alone.
FB

Gulfstreamaviator 6th Apr 2021 08:40

Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.

Asturias56 6th Apr 2021 09:00

I'm impressed that PPrune deemed important enough to suddenly have a number of new pro-Russian posters turn up all of a sudden - I exempt racedo & etdudiant who have been on here for years

Gulfstreamaviator 6th Apr 2021 11:59

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0a4a9944f5.jpg

Gulfstreamaviator 6th Apr 2021 12:01

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....18c491f2d9.jpg

aw ditor 6th Apr 2021 12:47

Casus belli ?

highflyer40 8th Apr 2021 09:48


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11022090)
Invaded ? Population of Crimea has always been overwhelmingly Russian. They had a vote and every survey since including from Western agencies asking people would they wish to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow comes out with 90% Moscow.

Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.

Of course they donít. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.

I would love to see Russiaís opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.

Aegis8 8th Apr 2021 11:30


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11024298)
Of course they donít. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.

I would love to see Russiaís opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.

Your statement is a bit over simplified and not entirely correct. The right to self determination is enshrined in the UN charter and international law. It guaranties peoples the right to the process of self determination, but it does not guaranty the outcome, ie. full independence.

You will find that the Donbas regions initially wanted autonomy form Kiev, but still to be part of Ukraine. Now with the history of Kiev stalling, not implementing the Minsk agreements and war looming again, they are proclaiming more loudly to become part of Russia. Which will not happen.

This needs to be resolved by Kiev coming to the party and doing what they signed up to do.

dead_pan 8th Apr 2021 14:11


Originally Posted by Gulfstreamaviator (Post 11023171)
Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.

Nothing new here. They've both been doing this for years now.

In Europe the only major 'local' nation state threat is Russia, so its wholly unsurprising all our airborne surveillance assets are sent this way.

dead_pan 8th Apr 2021 14:17


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11022090)
Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.

On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?

fitliker 8th Apr 2021 15:14


Originally Posted by aw ditor (Post 11023315)
Casus belli ?

Someone made money selling land previous collectives and Soviets .
Probably the same corrupt people that sold the old Soviet aircraft carrier , and rocket technology to Iran and North Korea .
We all know what happened to the Arms dealer trying to sell the stolen nukes , he was given a nuclear death .
Maybe the Land thieves who sold the old Soviet farms to foreign investors will wage war to avoid court .
Not the first time illegal land sales have been the cause of war . There are stories in the Old Testament about fields being sold off .

Gulfstreamaviator 8th Apr 2021 16:21

FAA warning to American carriers....

etudiant 8th Apr 2021 17:10


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11024492)
Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.

On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?

I'd just note that the Kiev government said explicitly that they wanted to get rid of their Russian speaking minority and passed laws prohibiting Russian language teaching in the majority Russian speaking areas.
Seceding from a government that wants to get rid of you does not seem illegitimate to me.
More generally, it is dubious I think to make a big 'international law' argument, the Soviet Union shifted internal boundaries quite arbitrarily, so they are not necessarily sensible.
We've seen from the Yugoslavia experience how desperately ugly rationalizing the mess can become, even in a small patch. The Ukraine is big, a much larger mess looms.


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