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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Tu.114 17th Mar 2023 10:55

Polish is plausible. The truck seems to be a STAR, which is common in Poland but less so in Ruzzia.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...x-STAR_266.jpg

ORAC 17th Mar 2023 11:05

I see one of two explanations for the Sky story being so wrong.

First, they were provided with completely false intel.

Second, they’ve uncovered a major corruption scam where people in the arms acquisition chain are operating a scam where they are producing paperwork (with corrupt Iranian cooperation) and claiming the funds for buying ammunition, but actually using it to buy vehicles and other goods for sale to launder the funds back into legitimate accounts.

​​​​​​​On March 8th, @SkyNews published an article about 2 Russian cargo ships which allegedly shipped 100 million bullets and 300,000 shells from Iran to Russia. Together with @pustota we found photos made on board of one of them during that trip.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...621082118.html

jolihokistix 17th Mar 2023 11:24

Re above. I wouldn't discount anything. These ships will have a main cargo, (lumber etc.) and every spare inch, including the decks will be used for extra revenue, such as cars.

golfbananajam 17th Mar 2023 11:32


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11403384)
“Banned” by whom? Some countries have agreed not to use them, but what entity can ban them, and what authority does such a ban have?

UKR is using these munitions on their own territory, not someone else’s and will have the unenviable task of cleaning up after.
Until then they fighting for survival.


Assuming Wikipedia has it right, The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...ster_Munitions


Ohrly 17th Mar 2023 11:41


Originally Posted by golfbananajam (Post 11403826)
Assuming Wikipedia has it right, The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...ster_Munitions

Did you miss the conveniently placed list of signatories at the bottom of that page?

ORAC 17th Mar 2023 12:55

Well worth a read….

Leader of the nazi group Rusich reveals that in his inspection of the so-called "Surovikin line" of defence in Zaporizhzhia, he found a large number of inconsistencies and issues that pose a threat to its defenders. He says the line is built by civilians using old maps, often going through lowlands. Anti-tank ditches are on the wrong side of ridges, allowing the enemy to quickly accumulate on the other side. Trenches are missing drainage or cover against drones. No dirt roads are built close enough to deliver ammunition.

It's a long post, the translation is on 4 screenshots below, but worth the read.​​​​​​​

https://threadreaderapp.com/convos/1636450410067099648

Winemaker 17th Mar 2023 13:32

From Newsweek today:

In an update on Thursday, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said that 1,040 Russian troops had been killed over the previous 24 hours. This took its estimate of the total number of Russian troop losses since the start of the war to 162,560.

The update also said that Russia had lost 12 tanks and 11 armored vehicles the previous day. This put the total number of tank losses to 3,504 over the course of the war and the number of armored vehicle losses at 6,810, according to Kyiv.

Kyiv first started reporting more than 1,000 Russian daily deaths in February, a figure which has been surpassed several times. However, Ukraine's tally of Russian personnel losses is higher than Western estimates. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in February that in the first year of the war, there were approximately 70,000 Russian combat fatalities.

Timmy Tomkins 17th Mar 2023 13:46

Drone intimidation
 
I see that FORTE 10, the Global Hawk, is well south of its habitual track over the Black Sea, so the Ruso attack on the Reaper seems to have worked for them :ugh:

NutLoose 17th Mar 2023 16:00


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11403880)
Well worth a read….



Leader of the nazi group Rusich reveals that in his inspection of the so-called "Surovikin line" of defence in Zaporizhzhia, he found a large number of inconsistencies and issues that pose a threat to its defenders. He says the line is built by civilians using old maps, often going through lowlands. Anti-tank ditches are on the wrong side of ridges, allowing the enemy to quickly accumulate on the other side. Trenches are missing drainage or cover against drones. No dirt roads are built close enough to deliver ammunition.

It's a long post, the translation is on 4 screenshots below, but worth the read.​​​​​​​

https://threadreaderapp.com/convos/1636450410067099648

The trench line I saw they had dug, they dumped the spoils on the Ukrainian side which would come in handy for backfilling it on top of the Russians with a bulldozer bladed tank. Just push it in, turn and run along the edge shoving it all back in.

Ninthace 17th Mar 2023 16:01


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11403907)
I see that FORTE 10, the Global Hawk, is well south of its habitual track over the Black Sea, so the Ruso attack on the Reaper seems to have worked for them :ugh:

How do you know where it is? Because the operators want you to know . . .

GlobalNav 17th Mar 2023 16:06


Originally Posted by golfbananajam (Post 11403826)
Assuming Wikipedia has it right, The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster bombs, a type of explosive weapon which scatters submunitions ("bomblets") over an area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conven...ster_Munitions

Sure, but it only applies to signatories, which I think, neither Ukraine nor Russia are. Secondly, whether you like the idea or not, UKR is/wants to use them on their own soil to defend themselves from a criminal aggressor. Not the same as CBW or other weapons of mass destruction.

Sfojimbo 17th Mar 2023 16:09


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11403978)
Sure, but it only applies to signatories, which I think, neither Ukraine nor Russia are. Secondly, whether you like the idea or not, UKR is/wants to use them on their own soil to defend themselves from a criminal aggressor. Not the same as CBW or other weapons of mass destruction.

They don't want to use them as cluster bombs. They want to disassemble them and use the bomblets on their drones.


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11403976)
How do you know where it is?

FR 24

Tartiflette Fan 17th Mar 2023 16:21

[QUOTE=Sfojimbo;11403979]They don't want to use them as cluster bombs. They want to disassemble them and use the bomblets on their drones.
/QUOTE]

AFAIK they have asked for intact cluster-bombs from the US and have been turned down. Asking for dis-assembled parts is the back-up to get more anti-armour ammo for their drones.

ORAC 17th Mar 2023 16:23

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ine-war-crimes

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes

Arrest warrants issued for Russian leader and his children’s rights commissioner for ‘unlawful deportation’ of Ukrainian children

Sfojimbo 17th Mar 2023 16:28


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11403984)

Originally Posted by Sfojimbo (Post 11403979)
They don't want to use them as cluster bombs. They want to disassemble them and use the bomblets on their drones.

AFAIK they have asked for intact cluster-bombs from the US and have been turned down. Asking for dis-assembled parts is the back-up to get more anti-armour ammo for their drones.

That's as far as you know. Others know different.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ns-use-drones/

Do you think they would blatantly lie to their biggest benefactor?

Then there is the question of how would they deliver them when Russia has air dominance over the battlespace?

NutLoose 17th Mar 2023 16:32

Wagner have put a Euro 15 million bounty on the head of the Italian Ministry of Defence, lets hope the world starts to return the favour.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ad/ar-AA18I432

Ohrly 17th Mar 2023 17:05


Originally Posted by Sfojimbo (Post 11403979)
FR 24

No, the answer is because the operator wants you to know.

DaveReidUK 17th Mar 2023 17:22


Originally Posted by Ohrly (Post 11404000)
No, the answer is because the operator wants you to know.

I think you are confusing the "how" and the "why".

DuncanDoenitz 17th Mar 2023 17:23


Originally Posted by Ohrly (Post 11404000)
No, the answer is because the operator wants you to know.

And obviously USAF only has one RQ-4.

Timmy Tomkins 17th Mar 2023 17:42


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11403976)
How do you know where it is? Because the operators want you to know . . .

Of course, I know that but my point is that is staying away from the bit of airspace that the Rusos claim nobody should be in, even though it is open airspace that the RAF often uses as well as the usual route of FORTE. So the Rusos seem to have scared off the US operator exactly as they wanted.


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