Originally Posted by skridlov (Post 11379151)

* GLSDB: Ground launched small diameter bombs. Acronyms are getting out of hand! The most recent neo-acronym I've encountered is MLCOA: most likely course of action. How long before we start to see SIX-letter acronyms?

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11379187)

Notwithstanding all the arguments for and against above; one thing is clear. If Putin gets away with this, those who are not wading in, will have a much harder time in future and so will we all.

Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11379328)

88 Leopard 1's from DE within some timeframe, but as news also 15 Gepards in the shopping list. Those would create a good air defence basis for the Leopard brigades.

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status...67053398921216

Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11021865)

There are a lot of soundings at the moment in relation to Eastern Ukraine and the possibility that Kiev Government will look to conduct a major attack on this area.

In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.

Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.

Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.

Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.

Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.

Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.

So questions are

Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?

At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.

Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.

Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11379370)

Lest we forget, it's been early 3 years since racedo started this thread and not hide nor hair of him has been seen since Russia invaded.

It's all too easy to accuse those we disagree with as being 'Russian bots', but in racedo's case I genuinely believe he was one.

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11379365)

Problems with ammo for the Gepard. Both Brazil and Switzerland refusing to deliver, although there may be a small purchase from Qatar - 16 000 rounds. Brazil also not willing to sell 105 mm ammo for Leopard 1

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11379382)

Since he joined in 2008 and, given the elevated average age of members, isn't it more likely he is deceased ? I don't recall his regular postings being any way untoward, so although his beliefs may have lain that way ( personally no idea ) I think the idea of being a bot/troll from date of joining is extremely unlikely. I am a little puzzled why you suddenly dragged this up.

Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11379403)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/a...0yNC_SAQA?oc=5

Swiss body proposes removing barriers to re-export arms to Ukraine

A Swiss parliamentary group has proposed to lift a ban on reexporting ammunition from Ukraine from other countries.

With 14 votes in favor and 11 against, the recommendation was passed. It will now require approval by parliament.

"The majority of this commission believes that Switzerland should contribute to European security, which also includes more assistance to Ukraine," a Swiss parliament committee stated in a press release.

Appeals from Germany for Switzerland to allow it to reexport Swiss-made ammunition into Ukraine have been rejected by Switzerland before.

This was because such a move would be against its neutrality. Bern has been under increasing pressure to reconsider its policies, as shown at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

In its statement, the committee stated that their proposals were not in violation of Swiss neutrality rules because the arms would be sent via another country and not directly into a conflict zone.

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11379406)

And I wonder why......................... The cynic in me would say possibly because if Rheinmetall starts producing it in quantities and with the probems getting it from Switzerland, then who in their right mind would purchase it from Switzerland..

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11379437)

One question would be, how great is the continuing/final total of requirements going to be ? I have no in-depth knowledge, but have the impression that the Gepard ( like the HIMARS ) was not a storming success pre-2021. HIMARS has now experienced a rocket-like increase in sales: will Gepard go the same way ?