While US and western supplies are being depleted, surely Russian supplies are being depleted at a far greater rate..
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11338613)
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...es-2022-11-28/
Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines .. |
Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
(Post 11338652)
I wonder if this is a good idea if behind Russian lines means inside Russia borders?
I think the Ukrainians have shown they can be trusted with their targeting, and to not strike centres of population. The first target should be Putin's dacha on the Black Sea, followed by every Russian air base and military installation within range. At the same time as providing this capability, the West should remind Russia that it is not the only nuclear power in the region should it think about escalating the conflict. |
This is what Russia tried to trigger several times, this almost WW3 like scenario. "We" against "NATO". I'd try to keep the cool. Don't support the "Russia is under threat" narrative. Let them face their inner chaos and power struggles instead. Then the long wait works against them.
Ukraine must be supplied as needed and everybody must be ready for a long war, WW1 style. Whatever Russia comes up with by spring must be met with the right responses. |
Originally Posted by melmothtw
(Post 11338657)
I think the West has to provide Ukraine with the means to strike inside Russia, otherwise Russia is safe in the knowledge it can 'stand back' and launch unending waves of cruise missiles/suicide drones into Ukraine without fear of any comeback.
I think the Ukrainians have shown they can be trusted with their targeting, and to not strike centres of population. The first target should be Putin's dacha on the Black Sea, followed by every Russian air base and military installation within range. At the same time as providing this capability, the West should remind Russia that it is not the only nuclear power in the region should it think about escalating the conflict. |
Originally Posted by Less Hair
(Post 11338660)
This is what Russia tried to trigger several times, this almost WW3 like scenario. "We" against "NATO". I'd try to keep the cool. Don't support the "Russia is under threat" narrative. Let them face their inner chaos and power struggles instead. Then the long wait works against them.
Ukraine must be supplied as needed and everybody must be ready for a long war, WW1 style. Whatever Russia comes up with by spring must be met with the right responses. |
Originally Posted by melmothtw
(Post 11338657)
I think the West has to provide Ukraine with the means to strike inside Russia, otherwise Russia is safe in the knowledge it can 'stand back' and launch unending waves of cruise missiles/suicide drones into Ukraine without fear of any comeback.
I think the Ukrainians have shown they can be trusted with their targeting, and to not strike centres of population. The first target should be Putin's dacha on the Black Sea, followed by every Russian air base and military installation within range. At the same time as providing this capability, the West should remind Russia that it is not the only nuclear power in the region should it think about escalating the conflict. |
Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
(Post 11338686)
We must not forget for all the success the Ukrainians have had Russia is a much larger country and as such has greater resources and, in a war of attrition, they will come out on top. Historically in wars Russia starts badly but in the long term they get better. However tempting a deep strike into Russia would be an escalation and the reluctance of the West to provide the appropriate weapons is probably a reflection of that concern.
I would target those bases launching missiles and the aircraft that are launching them, all the bridges and rail infrastructure heading into Ukraine, then I would start by knocking the TV channels off the air spreading their bile, drop a few masts should do, redesign Putins palace for him and personally I would let Moscow feel how it is to freeze, a few gas distribution nodes and power ones should do, that would bring it home to those Russians who think it is all one sided... I think Ukraine has already shown it can be trusted with the weapons they have been given that they will not use them on targets that part of the deal forbids, so I cannot see what is preventing giving them longer range ones. . |
Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
(Post 11338686)
We must not forget for all the success the Ukrainians have had Russia is a much larger country and as such has greater resources and, in a war of attrition, they will come out on top. Historically in wars Russia starts badly but in the long term they get better.
However tempting a deep strike into Russia would be an escalation and the reluctance of the West to provide the appropriate weapons is probably a reflection of that concern |
A deep strike into Russia could be counter-productive by giving the Russian People cause to support the illegal War kicked off by Putin and his cronies.
They did not care much for the Russian affair in Afghanistan....so why risk alienating any popular opinion for little military gain? Mothers are seeing their Sons head off to Ukraine and coming home in Caskets....or not coming home at all. Learn a lesson from other Nations that have conducted unpopular Wars....say.....like maybe the Falklands were the Argies thought they could do something similar to what is going on in the Ukraine. How did that turnout for that Regime? |
Deep strikes damaging Ukrainian infrastructure do not seem to be damaging the nation's resolve and I have no reason to believe that deep strikes into Russia would be any different. I cannot recall of a campaign where anything other than wholesale destruction, or the demonstrated prospect of wholesale destruction, has had a significant effect on the willingness of a people to continue a war.
In terms of effect, bleeding a nation of its young men and material, is more likely to bring on war weariness than direct attacks, which will only give a reason for resentment and a feeling that perhaps the losses were somehow justified after all. |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 11338710)
A deep strike into Russia could be counter-productive by giving the Russian People cause to support the illegal War kicked off by Putin and his cronies.
They did not care much for the Russian affair in Afghanistan....so why risk alienating any popular opinion for little military gain? Mothers are seeing their Sons head off to Ukraine and coming home in Caskets....or not coming home at all. Learn a lesson from other Nations that have conducted unpopular Wars....say.....like maybe the Falklands were the Argies thought they could do something similar to what is going on in the Ukraine. How did that turnout for that Regime? I'm not sure that the Falklands analogy really holds up to Ukraine, but in terms of how that turned out the Argentineans still claim the islands to be theirs, 40 years after the end of the war. We can't allow that to happen with Ukraine - the Russians must be militarily defeated, and seen to be militarily defeated. If not, this conflict could last for generations. |
Originally Posted by Ninthace
(Post 11338715)
Deep strikes damaging Ukrainian infrastructure do not seem to be damaging the nation's resolve and I have no reason to believe that deep strikes into Russia would be any different. I cannot recall of a campaign where anything other than wholesale destruction, or the demonstrated prospect of wholesale destruction, has had a significant effect on the willingness of a people to continue a war.
In terms of effect, bleeding a nation of its young men and material, is more likely to bring on war weariness than direct attacks, which will only give a reason for resentment and a feeling that perhaps the losses were somehow justified after all. |
Originally Posted by Ninthace
(Post 11338715)
Deep strikes damaging Ukrainian infrastructure do not seem to be damaging the nation's resolve and I have no reason to believe that deep strikes into Russia would be any different. I cannot recall of a campaign where anything other than wholesale destruction, or the demonstrated prospect of wholesale destruction, has had a significant effect on the willingness of a people to continue a war.
In terms of effect, bleeding a nation of its young men and material, is more likely to bring on war weariness than direct attacks, which will only give a reason for resentment and a feeling that perhaps the losses were somehow justified after all. However I suspect that Putin would hold defensive postions during the winter and attempt a full offensive in the spring with aim of the destroying the Ukrainian army. |
Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo
(Post 11338729)
I agree.....and isn't this the reason Russia had to quit Afghanistan though it took some years to get that point. In Afghanistan Russian casualities are believed to be 15,000 deaths; a figure probably exceeded in Ukraine so maybe it happen sooner.
However I suspect that Putin would hold defensive postions during the winter and attempt a full offensive in the spring with aim of the destroying the Ukrainian army. The only way this can end favourably for Ukraine and the West, is to give Ukrainians the tools to end the war decisively on their terms, and that means long-range weapons. Let Putin talk about 'escalation' - he's being doing that since before the war started. He's bad but he's not (yet) mad, and he knows as well as anyone what the West can inflict on Russia if it oversteps the mark. |
Ask yourselves this: Did The Blitz weaken, or strengthen our resolve?
Did the part of The Troubles than took place on the UK mainland make anyone in the UK say "Well they have a point"? Did constant bombing the NVA cause them to stop etc etc What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it? |
Russia will implode by itself after they realise that they are unable to violently keep the occupied territories. Let them fight each other.
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Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements
(Post 11338735)
Ask yourselves this: Did The Blitz weaken, or strengthen our resolve?
Did the part of The Troubles than took place on the UK mainland make anyone in the UK say "Well they have a point"? Did constant bombing the NVA cause them to stop etc etc What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it? What actually ended The Troubles? Was it in large part that people just got exhausted by it? |
Originally Posted by Less Hair
(Post 11338738)
Russia will implode by itself after they realise that they are unable to violently keep the occupied territories. Let them fight each other.
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Originally Posted by melmothtw
(Post 11338740)
I do suspect that the loss of Crimea will have a profound effect on the Russian psyche, and and when it happens.
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