PPRuNe Forums - Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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- - Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

One wonders when/if Iranian missile and drone production lines may start spontaneously combusting?
Probably being planned in Tel Aviv right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11315128)

Belarus’s latest statement come threat..

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/stat...Ci1dfi6_QrAAAA

At least there wouldn´t be any reason left for Ukraine not to hit ruZZian assets and bases in Belarus. 'Nibelungentreue' will be the end of Luka. He should know.

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War Monitor
Current power outages in — Kyiv — Zhytomyr — Ivano-Frankivsk — Dnepropetrovsk – Dnipropetrovsk region (Sinelnikovo, Pavlograd) — Kharkov

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Water supply shortage reported in: — Zhytomyr — Ivano-Frankivsk — Dnepropetrovsk — Dnepropetrovsk region (Pavlograd)

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https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/stat...ConYTZpfUrAAAA

Unanswered questions.

How much to replace/ stocks already transferred to Ukraine. How much to send to Ukraine. How much to increase stocks to realistic war levels.

Quote:

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/...j5MqyeXsDZGulQ

US Senate wants the Pentagon to buy:

• 750,000 XM1128 / XM1123
• 1,000 M777
• 700 (!) M142 HIMARS
• 100,000 GMLRS
• 20,000 Stinger
• 25,000 Javelin
• 30,000 Hellfire
• 36,000 AGM-179
• 1,000 Harpoon
• 800 NSM
• 10,000 Patriot PAC-3
• 6,000 (!) ATACMS
• 20,000 AMRAAM

Damn the UK never got a mention :{ :p

Quote:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/st...79794242486277

Ukraines consensus on the Belarus military capability.

Quote:

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/w...aine-4563.html

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/w...aine-4563.html

Their summing up

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The "core" of the strike group (if there is a new offensive from Belarus) will be the Belarusian army. The existing set of forces will be enough to form only one "army corps" level connection. And this circumstance dictates two options for the development of events.

Either the strike group of the Kremlin led by the Belarusian army will be able to rapidly break through on one part of the front, but then even more rapidly retreat back. Or the russian generals will "smear" their strike group along the wide front line, and then the end of the Belarusian army in Ukraine will be even more inglorious. According to the example of how russia’s 3rd Army Corps was "wiped out" literally in a month of fighting, during the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022.

I haven't seen any reports about where the drones used against Kyiv were launched from, presumably from Russian territory to the north?

Ukraine's air defences certainly have their work cut out dealing with these - tricky targets to detect and bring down. Radar laid triple-A definitely seems like the way to do, but do they try and defend the entirety of each city or just the critical infrastructure?

Quote:

Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11315303)

This commentator (former USAF EWO/IWSO) recommends C-RAM (17:53 on the video if it doesn't take you there directly):

In addition to ground defences, I wonder if some form of adhoc aerial defence could be mustered e.g. by equipping some light aircraft (helos?) with door-mounted LMGs, vectored by Uke AD?

Instill sleepless nights into the Ukrainians,
get presents never dreamed of.

I am sorry but this is a one legged ass kicking, they should be provided with the ability to hit Moscow and Russia's power supplies.
Guardian

Quote:

Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy says 30% of Ukraine’s power stations destroyed in past eight days after fresh Russian strikes

Summary of the day so far …

Russian forces carried out new airstrikes on Ukrainian energy facilities on Tuesday, causing several explosions in an area of northern Kyiv where there is a thermal power station. Dnipro, Mykolaiv and Zhytomyr were also targets.
City mayor Vitali Klitschko said today’s attack was on “critical infrastructure” in northern Kyiv, and urged resident to conserve electricity and stockpile drinking water.
Serhiy Sukhomlyn, mayor of Zhytomyr said “the city has no light or water at the moment. Hospitals are on back-up power.”
In Mykolaiv, a Russian missile struck an apartment building. The missile completely destroyed one wing of the building in the downtown area, leaving a massive crater. A fire crew pulled the dead body of a man from the rubble, a witness said.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said: “Since 10 October, 30% of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country”. Describing the Russian strikes on power supplies as “another kind of Russian terrorist attacks”, Zelenskiy said there was “no space left for negotiations with Putin’s regime”.
The death toll from yesterday’s attack on a central district of Kyiv has risen to five. Klitschko said the body of another resident – an elderly woman – had been pulled from the rubble of a building destroyed in an explosion.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Moscow has “no information” on whether Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones were used in large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities this week.
Oleh Synyehubov, the governor of Kharkiv, said on “Tuesday at around 8.30am, the enemy launched eight rockets at Kharkiv from the Russian city of Belgorod” but there were no casualties.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, said a man has been injured after Ukrainian forces shelled a railway station within Russia.
UK defence secretary Ben Wallace has hastily cancelled an early afternoon appearance before the Commons defence committee for an urgent trip to Washington DC, prompting speculation as to the purpose of the sudden visit.

Is there no way to ensure they do not arrive?

Quote:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/stat...CjlfD42fUrAAAA

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Is there no way to ensure they do not arrive?

Difficult, they can deliver by ship via the Caspian Sea to Dagestan.

Israel has said no.

Rather sad this, even if it is Russian, a tank was hit and lost the left track then continued to do donuts in the mud, the crew were possibly dead, and the driver unconscious.

Quote:

https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status...89324717776896

Eventually he appears to recover. stops the tank, probably grab a couple of things from a locker and start to climb down only to get hit by a dropped grenade and blown off the tank, another one finishes the job.

Quote:

https://twitter.com/aeyntkmcjy/statu...37825862529024

Quote:

Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11315314)

In addition to ground defences, I wonder if some form of adhoc aerial defence could be mustered e.g. by equipping some light aircraft (helos?) with door-mounted LMGs, vectored by Uke AD?

Helicopter Door Gunner vs Drone

Not sure I would want to be so close to a drone packed with explosive.
As drones are dumb and predictable perhaps a mini gun would be better?

They used to flip V1's ;)

They need to ask for their money back.

"Russian infantry trying to down a Ukrainian drone with an anti-drone weapon, instead get hit by a drone-dropped munition."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Quote:

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/sta...t2mijT5A5HCQBQ

WHEN YOU HAVE TO GET AWAY: Russia’s military age men continue to depart. Largely to Finland, but also to Norway, where at least two have been arrested on suspicion of espionage. Not surprisingly, Poland has expelled 23 more RU citizens than it has admitted.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....8389b1685.jpeg