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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

fdr 30th Aug 2022 16:15


Originally Posted by uxb99 (Post 11287346)
A very humane suggestion. Mine would be to hit them hard with the aim of destroying them. No sense being squeamish, I doubt the Russians would if situation were reversed.

The relative restraint that Ukraine has managed to retain in the face of grotesque aggression by Putin has resulted in enhanced stature in the eyes of the world that is providing them support in their hour of need. That is something that Putin fails to comprehend, it is not in the Russian psyche to be humane in their treatment of their own people, let alone those friends on the adjacent countries that they attack with monotonous regularity. Ukraine is facing in part, troops that didn't ask for what is happening, have no desire to be there, and would prefer to be anywhere else, above ground. Accepting their surrender and disarmament would be a good outcome for the press-ganged troops, and unfortunate conscripted troops, particularly if they can be detained under protective custody pending their repatriation, should they wish to go back to the Death Star.




fdr 30th Aug 2022 16:30


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11287277)
Strategic summary of the Kherson pocket….



On Kherson

"We provoked the Russian troops into mass redeployment. Now the largest grouping of about 25 thousand men is concentrated on the right bank and we have closed it."

I'm confused... "right bank"?

The Russians on the NW bank of the Dneiper have a good chance of having improved board and lodging soon, assuming that they are wise enough to do the maths. Ukraine has been effective in interdicting Team Red's logistics, which is OK for now, but then becomes a constraint to their advance into the SE region below the Dneiper thereafter. The improvement in their fire capability works to improve the situation, as long as they continue to interdict and weaken Russias MSR in the East of the Ukrainian territory. That may make is a necessity to take out the Kerch Bridge on its western approaches. The wild card may be the consequences of a mass capitulation in the field, that would have fairly substantial repurcussions back on the Death Star. The revenge of the Sith, Nerds, oppressed masses of the Rodina might be prompt and permanent, if the grip on power is seen to be slipping. I would contend that Russian natives clamouring for evacuation from near the Ukraine border would improve that possibility.

Amazingly, Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia, that could never be the case, it's like The Bahamas attacking the USA, but they may make it hard for Darth Vlader to remain at the helm of the mothership.

ORAC 30th Aug 2022 16:37


I'm confused... "right bank"?
The banks of a river are named from which side is on the left and right as you face downstream to the sea.

Hence the Left bank of the Seine in Paris is to the south whilst that of the Thames is to the north.

The Dnipro flows south to the Black Sea, so the right bank is to the west.

NutLoose 30th Aug 2022 16:54

You learn something every day.

ORAC 30th Aug 2022 18:49

Antonovsky bridge - “It’s not f***ing repaired, it broke in half and fell in the river”…


NutLoose 30th Aug 2022 19:10

Well it’s one way to get the message across


MPN11 30th Aug 2022 19:22


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11287935)
Well it’s one way to get the message across

STFU is good Military policy. Sadly the Twitterati live differently.

NutLoose 31st Aug 2022 01:14

Aviation Content.

That’ll be all those Ukrainian helicopters that Russia shot down in the first week lol


NutLoose 31st Aug 2022 01:32

It sounds like the defence of Kherson was crumbling before the Ukrainian counter attack.


When Vicktor Zolotov, director of the Russian National Guard, briefed his boss, President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday on the status of military operations in Ukraine, one remark in particular stood out.

“I especially want to emphasize that we feel the support of the population in the liberated territories,” Zolotov told a stone-faced Putin.

In reality, Russia has been struggling to rally the support of its own troops, according to internal government documents obtained exclusively by Yahoo News that detail drunken acts of insubordination six months into Putin’s invasion.


The documents include an incident and homicide report by the Russian Investigative Committee’s Military Investigations Department for the Black Sea Fleet regarding a June 19 incident in which three Russian soldiers were shot and killed and two others wounded in a gun battle with officers of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, at a bar in Kherson City, on the banks of the Dnieper River.

The city lies at the epicenter of an oblast that has been occupied by Russian forces since late February and which Ukraine yesterday appeared to launch operations to recapture. Details of that operation are hard to obtain, as Kyiv has announced a media blackout of ongoing military activities. But videos posted to social media show a series of Ukrainian artillery strikes on military installations, weapons and ammunition depots and key bridges have continued throughout the last 24 hours. In response, Russian air defenses have been activated throughout the oblast.

Kherson Stremousov, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson, has fled the region and even recorded a video Tuesday from a hotel in Voronezh, Russia. Meanwhile, there have even been unconfirmed reports of gunfire in the Pivnichny and Tavriiske neighborhoods of Kherson.


Russia’s equivalent of the FBI can at least attest to gunfire in Kherson city two months ago — between Russians.

According to the Investigative Committee’s report, at about 8 p.m. on June 19, Igor Yakubinsky, Sergei Privalov and D.A. Borodin, three officers attached to the sub-division Military Task Force No. 9 of the FSB entered the Food Fuel cafe on Ushakova Avenue when they discovered two contract soldiers, Sgt. Sergei Obukhov and Junior Lt. Igor Sudin “idly spending time, consuming alcoholic drinks,” according to the Investigative Committee documents.

The FSB officers remonstrated with the enlisted men for drinking while in uniform. Obukhov responded by removing his sidearm and firing rounds into the floor, the report stated. Privalov tried to grab the gun, whereupon Sudin started spraying the security servicemen with rounds from his AK-74 assault rifle, as Privalov and Yakubinsky returned fire.


Obukhov, Privalov and Yakubinsky “died on the spot,” according to the documents, while Borodin and Sudin were “hospitalized with injuries of varying degrees of severity at Federal Naval Clinical Hospital No. 1427 of the Russian Defense Ministry, located in Sevastopol,” in occupied Crimea. A fourth FSB officer, unidentified in the documents, fled the site.

Obukhov, 28, and Sudin, 31, both belonged to a Russian military unit known as the 8th Artillery Regiment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The shootout, which is now subject to a criminal case under the purview of V.O. Savchenko, an official in the Military Investigations Department, is the latest example of problems involving military discipline among Russian soldiers in the occupied territories of Ukraine.



Reports of Russian soldiers’ alcoholism have been rampant in Ukraine and morale has suffered as Putin’s war drags on without achieving its primary goal of regime change.

In Kherson, especially, Russian occupiers have been the targets of presumed Ukrainian guerrilla activities including assassinations and patrol ambushes. Earlier this month, Sky News quoted a local Ukrainian journalist in Kherson who told the outlet that in the suburbs of the city Russian soldiers parade around hammered, “a bottle of alcohol in one hand, a machine gun in the other.”
https://news.yahoo.com/report-drunk-...001518057.html

Beamr 31st Aug 2022 07:57

Currently its being awfully quiet about the progress in Kharkov area, but here's the first indications of whats going on.

"Our OSINT-team also has reasons to believe that Ukraine may have forced the Russians out of Liubomyrivka and Ternovi Pody. This is, however, unconfirmed at this point. It seems that the Russians have experienced some setbacks, but have been able to hold most of the line. 19/"


NutLoose 31st Aug 2022 10:02

Aviation content :)

Ukrainian front line troops have been banned from having press along for next few weeks with threats of the press losing their accreditation. Rightly too.


skridlov 31st Aug 2022 10:53

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ins-in-kherson
Even considering the sparseness of available information, the above report sounds somewhat ominous to me.

rattman 31st Aug 2022 10:58


Originally Posted by skridlov (Post 11288268)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ins-in-kherson
Even considering the sparseness of available information, the above report sounds somewhat ominous to me.

why would you expect anything else. These are large amount of rookie troops going against entrenched positions, exactly the same as what the russians have been required to do. Theres going to be big a body count on the ukrainian side

FUMR 31st Aug 2022 11:07

With the UKR counter offensive now in full swing, I think it has a lot more to do with not accidentally giving your enemy any useful information. There will sadly be losses on both sides but I tend to think that the Russians will come off a lot worse!

ORAC 31st Aug 2022 11:15

This is one of the key indicators I have been looking for that Russian Artillery has "hit the wall" in terms lacking logistical capability to go on.

Barrel liners have to be replaced regularly or you destroy the artillery barrels…..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...877213701.html

NutLoose 31st Aug 2022 11:21

Some movement in the field apparently

twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1564932134544052225

NutLoose 31st Aug 2022 12:04

I know its off season but how would you like a holiday in somewhere that is hot at the moment?


The Russian Federation plans to strengthen the defence of Crimea with residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as military personnel. Source: Chief Intelligence Directorate, information provided by the press service of the Ministry of Defence

Lonewolf_50 31st Aug 2022 12:21


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11288272)
why would you expect anything else. These are large amount of rookie troops going against entrenched positions, exactly the same as what the russians have been required to do. Theres going to be big a body count on the ukrainian side

Probably, unless they can get local air superiority.

Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11288279)
With the UKR counter offensive now in full swing, I think it has a lot more to do with not accidentally giving your enemy any useful information. There will sadly be losses on both sides but I tend to think that the Russians will come off a lot worse!

We'll see.
As to the Twittersphere: good job locking the journos out. As much of a good idea as 'embedded reporters' can be, it's also a risk which has been amplified by the Twittersphere (in a way that had not yet manifested when imbedding with troops in Iraq was done). OPSEC is important.

Fitter2 31st Aug 2022 12:37

Nutloose's twitterlink in 8686 is exactly the sort of thing UKR is trying to avoid. Geolocated it is one link in the overall intelligence chain. Dark means just that.

Unless, of course, it is a deliberate tweet to mislead. :oh:


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