A bit different I am afraid. In that case, the aggressor faced overwhelming odds. Including massed attacks on 2 major fronts and carpet bombing. Ukraine is the underdog here.

Request to go dark over Kherson.

dunno what significance the "Israel's Minister of Diaspora Affairs" has in the grand scheme of things but he said

This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia. The sufficiency of where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict will end. There is no room for self-righteousness anymore. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as the USA and NATO countries do.

I would suggest that is a watershed moment in Russian-Israeli relationship. Israel has maintained an odd mutually beneficial relationship with Russia, in part due to the diaspora. Family relationships and migration has continued since WW2, even during the Cold War. Migration started back in 1880, and 1908 where Russia was hostile to jews. Given Vlad's racist tendencies, I would expect Israel to be concerned about targeting of jews for conscription by Russia in retaliation to Israeli support on what sounds like moral objections to the actions of Russia. Israel may be a small country, but the ability for Israel to defend it's interests, are well above their weight bracket.

That sounds like good news for Ukraine and a diplomatic wet fish slap from Israel to Vlad. :ok:

More on Iran to supply ballistic missiles to Russia.

Egypt urging all citizens to leave Ukraine

Kazakhstan has decided to evacuate all employees from its embassy in Kyiv.

China calls on its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.

somethings up…


https://twitter.com/visegrad24

“If someone runs back, we will kill them”……

This intercepted call reveals how defensive lines operate for the Russians: first in the line are convicts guarded by mobiks in the second line, who are in turn guarded by regular forces.

Ukrainian telegram channels heating up with reports of lots of Russian hardware in the air, aimed across Ukraine.

UAVs heading to western Ukraine, reports of several MIG31 from Belarus over Ukraine, numerous missiles all over Ukraine. CM heading towards Kyiv. AFU asking to post neither videos nor pictures of air defence.

Iran Giving Missiles to Russia
 

Report from the Washington Post, October 16, 2022 at 2:30 a.m. EDT So they denied shooting down the Ukranian air liner (they eventually came clean) and now they deny supplying drones for use against Ukraine. Field testing at its finest. :p
Iran and Iraq traded hundreds of Theater Ballistic Missiles against each other back in the 1980's. Iran seems to have made home grown ones. They know what they are doing, so I wonder what Ukraine did to piss them off? Make them look bad about that air liner shoot down?
I wonder who that could be? ;)
So what is Russia paying to Iran, or providing to them, in return for this non-trivial shipment of modern weapons?

I am not sure what the TBMD posture of Ukraine is, but I doubt that it is very robust.
Some decades ago, the USAF was going a bit nuts about 'boost phase intercept' (large airliner sized aircraft zapping missiles with lasers as they took off) as the approach to defending against North Korean ballistic missiles of a similar class to the ones being provided by Iran. (I was very skeptical of that program, at the time). Have heard little to nothing about it since.
I wonder if it's been kept under wraps, or, if my skepticism was well founded.
That would be a very handy capability to employ at a time like this, if it works.
It may be like nuclear fusion as an energy source: "we are about 15 years away from solving this" as a decades long state of play. :p

The reports of a serious new front opening up from Belarus is disturbing: some months ago I asked "what if we are already in WW III and just don't know it yet?" The 'evacuate the embassy, all citizens leave Ukraine" signals from various countries doesn't make me feel any better.

Aviation content:

"Ukrainian pilot on his mission. Two rockets at 1:18 and flew home above the road"

The music will not appeal to all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhpg...ый

So is he targeting something or is this just a fire and forget mission?

HARM? Could be being fired in Pre-Briefed mode. Just reach the programmed launch point and pull the trigger.

“The HARM has four basic operating modes. The Pre-Brief, Pre-Emptive or Position-Known (PB/PE/POS) mode is a Lock On After Launch (LOAL) mode, and is used for standoff maximum range attacks on emitters of a known type and location, within several degrees of the missile boresight. This is the basic mode used by dedicated defence suppression (SEAD) aircraft such as the F-4G and Tornado ECR, or F-16CJ/HTS.

In PB/PE/POS mode, as used by the Tornado ECR or F-4G, the aircraft's Emitter Locating System (ELS) determines the identity and position of the target, which are downloaded to the missile. The launch aircraft will then toss the missile to impart the best possible range. The missile flies on inertial guidance until it acquires the target, and then homes to impact. The PB/PE/POS mode is essentially offensive and most commonly used when taking down an IADS.”

Russian channel Older than Edda: Reports of the transfer of "Daggers" (KH-47M2 Kinzhal missiles) to Belarus…


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ed134ce62.jpeg

It could of course all be it a counter bluff to divert attention away from the Donbas or Kherson region.

BREAKING: Employees at the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations have received weapons from the MoD with the task of "maintaining order and protecting the country in the event of mass riots or armed conflict.", head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations - Readovka

It is increasingly likely that a joint contingent of Russian/Belarusian forces are preparing some sort of offensive operation along the border with northern Ukraine.

Note the new tactical markings on a large majority of these vehicles.

Unless we are very ill-informed this is either sabre rattling, or another precursor to a second front. If the latter, will the Bela's fight, can they tolerate an early severe bashing?

Whilst I can see that in his current mood, Putin would have no compunction about throwing Belarussian units into a futile fight to relieve pressure - both military and media - on other operations, I find it enormously hard to believe that Lukachenko would go along with this unless his arm were twisted so far up his back, it threatened to tear off. From everything I have read, any involvement would seem certain to lead to his downfall.

If the Russians & Belarussians do decide to mount some form of offensive from the north, what will (can?) they do differently this time around? Its still the same forested terrain, they've proven themselves to be incapable of combined arms manoeuvre warfare, their air force is ineffective, and the Ukes are way better prepared, trained and equipped than they were the last time. This would be a desperate act.