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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 23rd Sep 2022 17:03

TB28B
The Russians made it clear they were talking about using them on the west and BPF put it better, and even if they used it in Ukraine it would effect the west and I believe trigger article 5.


If Russia uses a nuke of any size anywhere and there is not an overwhelming kinetic response from NATO then the nuclear taboo has been broken and you have enabled all the despots who have or are working towards nuclear weapons to use them. This would be an existential moment for the West.

If there is no action why would China not use tactical nukes on Taiwan or Pakistan on India?. It is the ultimate terror weapon
The only way you will ever prevent WW3 is to let the other side know that if they ever use a nuclear weapon we will respond in kind, it is that principal that has kept the Genie in the bottle all these years, without that assumed mutual destruction preventing the other side using nuclear weapons you are inviting Armageddon.

Having been on QRA with live weapons, as other on here no doubt have, the thought of ever launching them was frightening, but it was reassuring to know that we never would do that unless the other side did first, and one assumes that they viewed it the same way.

That and that alone is the only thing keeping the lid on them and long may it remain, no one wins.
Hence I stand by what I said, the only response is an equal response… saying we would launch a full blown conventional attack on Russia and all its bases WOULD bring on WW3 regardless.

​​​​​​…

Petit-Lion 23rd Sep 2022 17:05


Originally Posted by NWSRG (Post 11300996)
Agree...how would the west respond to a tactical nuke? If responding in kind, then surely it has to be a cruise missile...ICBMs just raise the game massively, whether sub or land based. And what is the target? If it is within Russia, then the ICBMs may come from the east!

If the first strike is on some remote woodland or Snake Island, the obvious retaliation target would be the Sochi Mansion.
And to not involve NATO, just provide now the UKR with a couple of nuclear-tipped ATACMS rockets without the keys, so they are ready to retaliate in minutes should the need arise. Let the World know, and UKR now has their own deterrence without breaking the NPT.
And yes, the fallout of a tactical nuke would be a tiny fraction of Chernobyl's, that's why the Russians are not as afraid of nukes as we are.

Herod 23rd Sep 2022 18:05

Just a copy from the Rumours and News thread. No guarantee of its validity.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/2...ion-subpoenas/

DaveReidUK 23rd Sep 2022 18:32


Originally Posted by Petit-Lion (Post 11301539)
And yes, the fallout of a tactical nuke would be a tiny fraction of Chernobyl's, that's why the Russians are not as afraid of nukes as we are.

The Russians believe that retaliation for a nuclear strike of theirs would only be a tactical one ?

ORAC 23rd Sep 2022 18:39

General Mark Hertling.

Putin's announced mobilization of 300,000 "reservists" was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.

Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.

A brief 🧵 on some fun facts. 1/

fdr 23rd Sep 2022 18:42


Originally Posted by Herod (Post 11301569)
Just a copy from the Rumours and News thread. No guarantee of its validity.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/2...ion-subpoenas/

taking out the reserve airlift capability to go and fill body bags while using up the stocks of Mosin-Nagant's seems like a great plan IMHO. The guys in the airlines are smart enough to know when to declare a "mayday" and divert. Alternates to Putin exist within the Ukraine, and the need for civil air transport involving Russia seems to be diminishing rapidly. Bring white cloth to aid your departures guys.

ORAC 23rd Sep 2022 18:44

There was palpable frustration in the Russian media that many in the West misunderstood what Putin said⁠—he was threatening the West, not Ukraine, with nuclear strikes.

And so, droves of propagandists have been sent out to tell the West: push us into a corner and everybody dies.

ExAscoteer2 23rd Sep 2022 18:47


Originally Posted by GeeRam (Post 11301532)
They do have a big drawback in that they have a ferocious muzzle blast, so not ideal on a modern (one side at least) battlefield.

The major problem with the Mosin is that the bolt design doesn't allow for rapid fire. But as a sniper or long range engagement weapon is is really very, very, good.

I have never witnessed a "frocious muzzle blast" when firing tha Mosin.

MPN11 23rd Sep 2022 18:57


Originally Posted by ExAscoteer2 (Post 11301584)
The major problem with the Mosin is that the bolt design doesn't allow for rapid fire. But as a sniper or long range engagement weapon is is really very, very, good.

Agreed, provided the user is adequately trained/skilled. Otherwise it’s just ‘rounds down range … GO’.

A Bisley acquaintance of mine was seriously effective in ‘Stan. These people would just burn rounds to no effect.

NutLoose 23rd Sep 2022 19:01


Originally Posted by Herod (Post 11301569)
Just a copy from the Rumours and News thread. No guarantee of its validity.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/2...ion-subpoenas/

So if they are not more “selective” in their selection process they will put their country back into the dark ages, 50 to 80% of their airline staff will kill travel around their country, I read somewhere of a steel mill that was being temporarily shut down as 500 staff were being conscripted, steel mills need skilled labour, you cannot simply fill it with unskilled labour and fire it back up again, repeat this across the board and kill these people on the fields of Ukraine and your state simply cannot function. Mass conscription narrowly targeted is a disaster in the making.

Pali 23rd Sep 2022 19:18

Aviation content, A321 cockpit with "INOP" stickers...

Not sure if this is the correct thread but this is what war brought to Russia.


ORAC 23rd Sep 2022 19:23

China seems to have picked what they see as the winning side…

China’s foreign minister tells his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, that China respects Ukraine’s sovereignty & territorial integrity & rejects force.

This on the day when referendums begin in Russian-held areas of Ukraine on whether to link up with Russia. Watch out, Putin!

flash8 23rd Sep 2022 20:05

Got a call this morning from big US corporate I'm doing work for... I'm not in Russia for now but still use my custom [email protected] (near enough) email address for most stuff.

Nice lady says she is sorry but management have deemed the use of .ru email addresses a threat to the reputation of the business and could I use something else (like gmail) as they can't allow any correspondence to any .ru entity.

OK, I agreed, but afterwards thought.. this is going way way beyond what I imagined.

Other news... Friends in Moscow many are quite scared naturally, some even that I thought would shrug off much of this. One or two are leaving (Georgia) but vast majority staying put. My old secretary (iron lady) is freaking out and I'm trying to calm her down almost as we speak.






Beamr 23rd Sep 2022 20:07


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11301607)
Aviation content, A321 cockpit with "INOP" stickers...

Not sure if this is the correct thread but this is what war brought to Russia.

This has been handled here already, latest was yesterday. That video has been on Reddit in January already and the AC has been sitting in Tallinn, Estonia since 2021. In essence prior to the sanctions.

rattman 23rd Sep 2022 20:32


Originally Posted by ExAscoteer2 (Post 11301584)
The major problem with the Mosin is that the bolt design doesn't allow for rapid fire. But as a sniper or long range engagement weapon is is really very, very, good.

No its probably not even good for that they are old rifles, probably pretty worn out and have optic available for them is extremely limited numbers. You can upgrade them to take modern optics and night sights but its 600-700usd per rifle

NutLoose 23rd Sep 2022 20:32

More Russian state Tv dross from a few that should be conscripable


Flash it’s all ok when the war is not on your doorstep but on TV, but when it comes home to roost and you realise you could be in the fridge trains in a few weeks time.
I personally do not have any sympathy for them, they ( most ) were not on the streets berating the leadership for invading Ukraine, and to be honest they still are not, they are rioting and marching against being conscripted, they up and till now have been happy with the war and stil appear to be.

glad you are safe and well.

flash8 23rd Sep 2022 20:58


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11301641)
Flash it’s all ok when the war is not on your doorstep but on TV, but when it comes home to roost and you realise you could be in the fridge trains in a few weeks time.
I personally do not have any sympathy for them, they ( most ) were not on the streets berating the leadership for invading Ukraine, and to be honest they still are not, they are rioting and marching against being conscripted, they up and till now have been happy with the war and stil appear to be.

I can only speak of the experience of my friends and former colleagues. If they had any choice it would be to revert to before the war. Not one has been gung-ho, like others in similar situations they have been beaten down into subdued submission. That submission is now turning into mild fear coupled with a growing resentment towards the West in some. Russia will never go back to the old days. That is for sure. It has turned a corner into unknown territory - even if the war ended tomorrow - ramifications will last decades for the country (and the world). I guess this may well be the major event of our lives.


glad you are safe and well.
Thanks, all OK (as well as can be in our circumstances).

Video Mixdown 23rd Sep 2022 21:01


Originally Posted by flash8 (Post 11301624)
Got a call this morning from big US corporate I'm doing work for... I'm not in Russia for now but still use my custom [email protected] (near enough) email address for most stuff.
Nice lady says she is sorry but management have deemed the use of .ru email addresses a threat to the reputation of the business and could I use something else (like gmail) as they can't allow any correspondence to any .ru entity.
OK, I agreed, but afterwards thought.. this is going way way beyond what I imagined.
Other news... Friends in Moscow many are quite scared naturally, some even that I thought would shrug off much of this. One or two are leaving (Georgia) but vast majority staying put. My old secretary (iron lady) is freaking out and I'm trying to calm her down almost as we speak.

​​​​The joys of Putin's Russia. Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.

ExAscoteer2 23rd Sep 2022 21:20


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11301640)
No its probably not even good for that they are old rifles, probably pretty worn out and have optic available for them is extremely limited numbers. You can upgrade them to take modern optics and night sights but its 600-700usd per rifle

Possibly the Russian stock are in ess aitch one tea ee order.

However, having fired my friend's Mosin on numerous occasions I stand by what I say.

I can put all the rounds in the V Bull at 1000 yds (that's about the width of a man's shoulders) using the stock open sights.

Chugalug2 23rd Sep 2022 21:45

T28B :-

Notasmodnorasadmin
People who think as you do are the ones who will start World War III. Preventing World War III is in the interest of mankind. Thankfully, some of our other contributors have explained the details.
Perhaps one could say just the same about you and your way of thinking. Putin is a chancer, just as Adolf was. He thought that the West would stand back and simply buy his gas while he busied himself with invading and ravaging the Ukraine. Turns out he was wrong. He now needs to know (or strongly suspect) that if he resorts to using a nuclear weapon of any description anywhere, then Russia will suffer the same. If he suspects that won't happen, then he may just take that chance to dig himself out of the deep hole he has dug himself into. Hitler was ready to recall his troops if any attempt was made to repel them in 1936 when he invaded the Rhineland in violation of the Treaty of Versailles. Nothing happened, nor in Austria, and Czechoslovakia was handed to him on a plate. The rest as they say is history. It was branded appeasement and those who supported it could be said to have started WWII (in Europe anyway) rather than those like Churchill who urged early action. A plot to overthrow Hitler was stillborn thanks to that defeatist stance. Bullies have to be stood up to, in the playground and in the real world. To not do so simply means things get worse, much worse, and very quickly.


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