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I'm puzzled. I thought that Lavrov and cronies were banned?

Article 4 of the treaty under which the UN is based in the USA.

The USA agreed free access, regardless of any national, federal or local laws.

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publicat...47-English.pdf

Reference the Russian law change…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...210089985.html


Take it as unconfirmed:

"After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." - Bochkala_WAR on TG

How can he go to war against what he claims is Russia itself, it makes a nonesense of his whole posture, the only way he can go to war is if he recognises Ukraine as a Sovereign Nation.

Really it's just more of the same old rhetoric, bluff, bluster and bullsh*t just polished up and regurgitated, and he knows he is losing, he just needs a way out and there are windows a plenty in Moscow.


..

So, whats going on currently
- four Russian occupied areas are arranging a referendum in a very fast pace, by next tuesday.
- today Russian Duma approved to add war time crimes to criminal code, in essence in times of mobilization eg "voluntary surrender" is punished with years of service in the gulags.
- Putin is said to make a statememt on the referendums in the state TV late tonight
- Russian Kilos pulled away from Crimea, also Kerch bridge protective barges are said to be pulled away. Z-force regrouping in occupied territories.
- Lavrov on his way to UN meeting and I would expect him to emphasize the Russias right to defend its territory
- today Lukashenka ordered Belarus army to strengthen the defense of Belarus and prepare for wartime norms
This all smells like escalation.

I'm now playing a bit with scenarios, hoping I'm wrong on this...
Today Putin announces support to referendums, tomorrow Lavrov states in the UN that any attempt to attack "Russian soil" will justify a war and that ir Russia is threatened it will use NBC if necessary hoping that the rest of the world buys that threat,. By next Tuesday the four areas announce "wish to join Russia" and that is swiftly approved by Putin just like the help request by Penis Dushilin in February, Ukraine disagrees and continues the push to liberate its territories, Putin announces mobilization and declares war due to "attack against mother Rossija". It will only be a part mobilization so that it only affects men of certain age and training, to gather some 100-200000 troops as they can't handle more troops (lack of equipment, trained people, officers etc) and to not make the entire population angry (especially st Pete and Moskva areas).
Lukashenka has been blackmailed to join the war within the "state union" and he has no option as he knows how Russia left Armenia on its own and he can"t stay on power without Putins support.

As Russians already know that the declaration of war opens the gates for attacks anywhere without Ukraine having to consider possibility for further escalation, so as the subs are most easily destroyed in ports those are already pulled into safety.

Problem for Russians is that mobilization takes time. It takes at least months to make any real effect in the front unless they just drive the fresh troops to the border by trains and leave them there, WW2 style, some have the rifles and others have the ammo. And this delay would be the opportunity for Ukraine to make a breakthrough, but it would require the West to disregard the NBC thteats and make a big boost on arms deliveries to Ukraine: MBTs, long range missiles, even thise A10's or vipers if Ukraine has some pilots as rumoured, anything and everything they need. Make the Z-forces current forces annihilate so that some 100k new troops won't make a difference.

I hope I'm wrong on this.

I smell desperation on Putin’s part. The military bit simply doesn’t function as he had hoped, so now he’s trying high politics and nationalism. He’s treading a tightrope that could go horribly wrong for everyone … Ukraine, Russia and the West.

""After 23.59 today (Moscow time), men aged 18 to 65 will be prohibited from leaving Russia abroad." Unconfirmed"

Banning Russian diplomats from the UN would be counter-productive.

Is it too much to hope that these 'referendums' might actually not be a scam event, and he can then announce that they voted to not be Russian, and this becomes his out strategy justification to the Russian sheep...........just all seems a bit too soon after he's got given some 'hard facts' of realty by the Chinese, Indians and others at his recent Asian security summit, especially with further unrest on his southern border states?

I still can't see Ukraine giving up getting Crimea back now though, even if my left-field hope above were to be true.

That was not my point!

ORAC answered my question.

And let's be honest, it's very doubtful that their presence will be productive!

UKR sinks RF barge
 

Ukraine Sinks Russian Barge 'Loaded With Weapons, Equipment': Military (msn.com)

Story too long to copy

Yes, it does, but I wonder at how effective Mr Lukashenka will be.
He is between a rock and a hard place. I get the feeling from what little I read on his situation that he hasn't the same amount of support in Belarus that Putin has in Russia. If he tells the troops "go" he may get "get stuffed" for an answer. Or not. And given Belarus' position, a quick strike with air and ground assets could seriously set UKR back. I expect that EW and SIGINT assets are keeping a very sharp eye on Belarus.
Not sure how quickly they could get up to speed on Warthogs or Vipers.
I sincerely hope that you are right.
Yeah, I think he just realized that going "all in" on Ukraine has left him exposed. And the Armenians are feeling it already.

The UAF have already attacked targets in the Crimea, which the Russians consider as their territory. So why would the annexation of other Ukrainian territory stop the UAF from continuing with their objectives?

Indeed, and there is another case of iilogicallity from the Putin Conundrum. If, in his mind, Crimea is already Russia, then so are the other eastern regions of Ukraine. The only escape from this loony loop is to actually declare war, properly, and face the consequences from his own people.

Putin is in a hole and just can’t stop digging.

Isn’t a fake referendum followed by annexation to enable Ruzzia to ‘legitimately’ use conscripts to defend what they will claim is a part of Ruzzia? Not that the fact that something is illegitimate has stopped them so far.

Apparently he wanted 77 visas for him and his associates. Inlcuding wives/mistress so they could go shopping. US said they had to be diplomatic staff, they resubmitted a new list which the US vetted and approved, heard its around 12 -18 now

Latest info is that Putins speech has been postponed till tomorrow, very unusual.
At the same time comes a statement from the Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov: "There will be no general mobilization, but martial law may be introduced in some places".

Right... so no mobilization but martial law... in everywhere else but st Pete and Moscow, huh? To mobilize the peasants east of Ural but keeping the "real ruschist" happy?

Looks like their is a rush to flee Russia.

Probably means, as per Luhansk & Donetsk, compulsory press-ganging of every male over 16 as cannon fodder in the annexed areas.