The brand new 3AC of Russias Western Milirary District was apparently formed in June and considered to be 15500 in strength consisting of "volunteer" men aged 18-50 without prior military experience. So the army is new and people have had a very short training period and based on the information they will be thrown to worst places. That should end well both militarily and for the civilians as there has been reports of these volunteers abusing the locals around their base in Mulino, so how will they behave in the war zone?

More importantly these people aren't from the land far far away, these are reported to be from eg Saratov, Samara, Ulyanovsk, and Kurgan oblasts which are west of Ural. What I am trying to say is that losses are closing Moskva.

Even though they are apparently equipped with the best kit the Russian army has to offer, are they able to use the gear? Or will they just drive the T90's into mine fields in a row like we've seen constantly. Or use the BUKs red on red. Or just mutine and refuse fighting once its HIMARS o'clock.

It appears that collaborators do not need to check their vehicles. Another one bites the dust. Slow mo it and you can see a small kamikaze drone come in from the right first couple of secs.

Special Kherson Cat is taking the piss. There is a small bird (looks more like a Swift to me than a Swallow) that fly's into the shot and is just in front of the driver's door when the bomb goes off.

I'm going to play Devils Advocate here, but how would you know if they missed a bridge over water? :}
(Not having a go, as I'm sure they're accurate shots) :ok:

Yes, more like swift, and more like swift behaviour

'cuz Art Garfunkels crystal clear notes would be lamenting that fact...
:}

Hopefully Z force will have a small deductible on their insurance on the pontoon sections. I was offered a whole bunch of French built bridging equipment a couple of months back (long boring story), the pontoons are surprisingly complex, but lots of them around, the carriers for them, not so much, they would be great little quadcopter targets of opportunity. It will be interesting to see what if any off axis terminal guidance the Ukrainians can muster from their munitions. My bet, it is more than 20 degrees for high apogee paths, and for sea skimmers... more than 90. Would be putting money on the people dowstream getting debris in their fishing nets. Being in the lee only seems like a good idea, assuming that the other side is less resourceful than the party making the assumption. Recent history suggests that Ukraine is resourceful, and adaptive.

Special Kherson Cat is one cool feline. The RSPCA will be up in arms like Amnesty... That was a lot of bang to take out a pigeon.
Explosion looks like it was right under the front seat area, you have to have offended a lot for that to be done. gonna take a lot of buffing to get that out.

The car is LHD. Don't hitchhike in Ukraine or Russia at present. The RH pax picks up something in the second before things go bad. wonder if that was the IED? explosion looked like it comes from either immediately below them there or maybe there. Don't litter campaign?

Russia has removed some 180K + of their own troops as #200+ #300's, in 6 months. What they have gained is a hostile public in the area that they suggest they are saving from... Nazi's? When the locals are prepared to cut the throat of a Russian soldier for raping a child, it may be a time to re-evaluate the winning hearts and minds strategy as it isn't working, and it will accelerate in extent, unless human nature suddenly changed. Cracking down is a great way of ramping up resistance to additional targets. Would seem that the continued destruction of the Russian military due to the ego of one man is a really poor choice for the stability of Russia.

Expect a ramp up of resistance within Ukraine, and more in Russia, particularly the areas that have been forced to carry the cost of the egotist in the Kremlin.

Started with... 190k and broke 186K in 6 months, that is an impressive effort. Is Putin being paid by Ukraine to de militarise Russia? He deserves a bonus round if he can destroy 300K Russian troops by Xmas.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6cc785593f.png

More like RSPB territory but most definitely the mother of all bird strikes. I will not be surprised if the pro Russian troll's say, "Look we were right. the Ukrainians and NATO are making Bird Bio Weapons".

Sanctions start to bite - or rather to stop Russians being able to buy a bite…

(And yes, it’s steel, and not tin but tins…..)

Commodity giant Russia is running out of tin.

Due to a shortage of sheet steel, the country will soon face a shortage of tinned food and baby food lids, which were previously imported.

If no alternative is found, businesses will be forced to shut down

Where'd you get that number? Or are we making assumptions based on Russkies worst case scenario?
.
that would be 1000 troops KIA/MIA/WIA every day from day one.

The 186K was a recent breakdown ex the UK MOD IIRC, that included 200, 300 and POW's there were 1000 POW still on the books apparently. It was worth a double take, as the figure on the injuries is much higher than my expectation on the historical rates, amended for the lethality and relative lack of dust-off capability in the field.

The Ukrainian sourced numbers may have inflation for public confidence, but the figures through to the first 90 days or so correlated fairly well with the fatalities that would have been expected from the armor and vehicle losses. What then came to light was that the IFV's were decidely undermanned with troops, and that would have given a lower loss of fatalities and injuries per vehicle. The reports from inside Russia indicate wholesale unit losses that are devastating. If the number of current fatalities is correct as recorded by the Ukrainians, then the 180K ineffective is going to be a realistic number. If they are out by 50%, then the latest figures from the US DOD that has been upgraded to 80K ineffective's is closer to the value. The current losses are extraordinary at any end of that spectrum. A lot of Ladas.

The Zombiez are rapidly approaching 50K body bags/envelopes/DNA samples, so the historical KIA/WIA would be close to that amount. The number of destroyed IFVs/MBTs and other vehicles etc with fairly high lethality weapons would suggest a lower ratio, others have suggested higher. Any way you count the figures, it is not a happy situation, and those are presumably a lot of pro-Putin votes going up in smoke with the turrets. Lada's will only gain so much leverage, until the first time it breaks down. the other figures given for materiel losses were remarkable when compared to the forces arranged on the line at Z-hour; they have depleted their initial equipment more or less, and are running on the reserves, that were depleted to a large extent by the commitment to the Special Demolition Derby.

There used to be a steelworks in a little place called Mariupol. Named after the water nearby. Needs some TLC.

Thanks, so it's the worst case scenario, however latest I saw from UK MOD was estimate of 50k total KIA/WIA (july 17th, BBC interview with Admiral Tony Radakin), and that would make more sense.

My issue with the number 180 is that it would mean that 65% of Russian ground forces (280000) would've been wiped out already. This would mean that the Russian front would've already collapsed and there would hardly be any troops left in any of the garrisons from Kola peninsula to Kuril islands.

Also, the roughly 50k KIA is Ukrainian figure with the UK and US figures being way much more conservative.
Then the turret numbers, as Z force has lost 1800 MBT's it would be up to 5200 tank crew members, but not all were blown up, some were just abandoned. In any case it woukd not be a number of significance otherwise than that those were specially trained crews, much harder to replace than the average DPR "volunteer".

I don't have more accurate numbers or direct knowledge so my assumptions are just that, but If we take the different estimates and average it out to 20-25k killed, we'd have a number of 80-100k discounted from the Z force. Which as a number is huge, but more plausible.

Either way, it would seem to be unsustainable by Russia without a general mobilisation, which would be heading towards an accelerated collapse of his economy, and an increase in the likelihood of internal revolt. The latest activities are passing the point of being dissent, to selective attack. A review of the prior bad luck cases in Russia may suggest that much of that was done by Russians and not Ukrainians. That is conjecture but not outside of possibility.

The MBT losses have been pretty tough on Russian families, but they have been manned mainly by 3 man teams for most types. The fatalities to non fatal casualties are still high, but not near 100%, but they are still higher than the historical 1:3, which itself has always had variability between period, conflict, corps involved etc. For armour, it's always been pretty bad odds if hit by effective weapons. The ICVs of all types have been messed up by the munitions employed, the crew numbers seem to have been about as expected, the dismounts have been way less than full complements. For those, estimates based on losses of 10-13 tel per vehicle would have been overestimated, much of those vehicles have been running lower numbers of troops. The headquarter strikes have been devastating, and frequent, the number of officers that are known to have been killed so far, admitted by Russia was approaching 1000 a week ago. Those numbers would appear to be indicating higher total losses, as while Russia has to put senior staff in the field to get anything done, the figures within the oOB would not support a ratio of Jnr and Snr officers to enlisted/conscripted victims in the low numbers that are being indicated otherwise. Lada sales may give a better indication. In the background, the reports out of the groups of the LNR and DNR that had their "volunteers" going and and not coming back, they have had devastating losses, reported weeks ago by Perun on the manpower matters of both sides. The data that Perun derived was solely from Russian statements, and it was surprisingly close to the Ukrainian estimates, which supports the higher losses, however, Russia being Russia, while the fatalities were remarkably high, the provision of medical aid was being complained about by the LNR & DNR, complaining over equipment, support, lack of body armour and basic necessities. Russian losses may have a much more reasonable fatality to casualty ratio than the LNR, DNR teams. Same now for the Chechens and the Wagner groups. All parties have their politics in play, high numbers cause misgivings to general public if they are not invested the conflict.

Far too many on all sides for one mans ego/psychosis.

The same report gave the tel mission capable MBTs at around 3500, with just under 2000 out of action through the war to date. The total fleet that existed on the OOB was more than 2 times that, but much of the reserve is beyond repair. Per Krivosheev, (1997) Russia lost some 3/4 of their MBTs in round 2, and that really covered the period from 1942 through to the end, in the opening rounds, the USSR had little in the way of heavy tanks, and got hammered as a consequence. With the fielding of the T-34 and KV things improved, from a loss ratio of 7:1 to 1.4:1. The intensity of this conflict is up there, well above the loss rates in most modern regional conflicts, but below the WW's & Korea.




Krivosheev, G. I. (1997). Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses. Greenhill.



The other "Non War"
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cae37fc35f.png

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkrai...eb2x&context=3

Aviation content, albeit briefly. Although apparently video'd in Latakia (Syria) the surviving elements of the unit have apparently been redeployed to the North as described earlier in this thread.

I can remember from my own time in the mob that this system really had our side worried when it was introduced. I wonder if the design of the Patriot and NASAMS launchers was specifically to avoid this problem at the expense of having to use directional, rotating equipment to send the missile on its way.

Hitting the Kherson bridge again.

Unsustainable in the long run for Russia in any case, no arguing there. Hopefully Ukraine is the more resilient one (and the west keeps providing the goods as long as it takes).

The actual casualties will be a mystery for the generations to come, many historians will make a good living studying this war. And that means we can only make educated guess of the current situation (I doubt even the Russians know how many they've lost) but I'm having hard time believing in the 180.

What we are fighting against, or why we should providing aircraft and longer range munitions.

Russia is, through their use of gas, waging war against the West. If so we should fighting with our best weapons.

“If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly”

What goes up…..

OWN GOAL: WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 posts this video of a Russian S-300 air defense system scoring a direct hit - on itself……