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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

MJ89 2nd Aug 2022 15:15

Russia blows up russian Train killing many.
 
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-...-50260570.html

3 russians walk into a bar.

byt' dolzhnym

NutLoose 2nd Aug 2022 15:43

I would say as a layman this must be accurate.


The long-term damage to the Russian army, marines, VDV from this war cannot be overstated. It goes beyond the numbers of men killed and equipment destroyed. This will also be a story of a military generation that is damaged or gone, and who remains.
/1
Heavy losses to what professional NCOs RS had, junior + field-grade officers means that the group of people who signed up in the last 10-15 years, when the military tried to reform and who knew something even a little different than 90s or Soviet military life, are gone
/2
When this is over, the parts of those service branches left unscathed are conscripts, those officers or NCOs they didn't trust to go in the first place (who are back at home garrisons), senior officers who received commissions as Soviet officers (50/60 year olds) and
/3
....those who survived in Ukraine, bringing back combat stress/trauma/criminality with them, right back into the barracks. This will be a toxic brew for incoming conscripts for years to come. Without significant oversight the conditions hazing could get out of control
/4
Then, add in the mass casualty events that the Russian military has not coped with since WW2, being sent in unprepared for the Kremlin's war of choice, the lies, the war crimes, atrocities, the list goes on and on.
/5
In sum, the numbers of Russian casualties are severe enough -- but the damage that will ricochet around inside those service branches after this war is over, will be worse.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...350342148.html

MPN11 2nd Aug 2022 16:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11271848)
All change, this train will terminate here.

https://twitter.com/uawire/status/1554465240867393536

”Please move to the nearest emergency exit, taking nothing with you … “

Beamr 2nd Aug 2022 17:06

Medvedev continues his ranting. And this nutcase is the deputy chairman of the security council of Russia.

"Medvedev's account calls for occupying Georgia, Kazakhstan, aide claims it's been hacked. Dmitry Medvedev, an ex-president and deputy chairman of Russia' Security Council, had published a post on social network VK saying that Georgia should be merged into Russia."

"He also said that Kazakhstan is an artificial state, accusing it of launching a "genocide" against Russians and adding that order will be restored only when Russia interferes. The post was deleted from Medvedev’s account, and a Medvedev aide said the account had been hacked."


NutLoose 2nd Aug 2022 17:17

Russia should be merged into Georgia sounds better.

ORAC 2nd Aug 2022 17:17

About that plan of shipping Ukrainian wheat via the Danube-Rhine canal to the North Sea ports….

CHART OF THE DAY: Rhine barge costs beyond the chokepoint of Kaub are rising very fast, approaching the record high set during the 2018 drought.

Kaub water gauge stands at 62cm (down from 150cm in early July), and set to drop to 45cm by weekend. Below 40-35cm barge traffic stops…

etudiant 2nd Aug 2022 23:14


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11271910)
About that plan of shipping Ukrainian wheat via the Danube-Rhine canal to the North Sea ports….



CHART OF THE DAY: Rhine barge costs beyond the chokepoint of Kaub are rising very fast, approaching the record high set during the 2018 drought.

Kaub water gauge stands at 62cm (down from 150cm in early July), and set to drop to 45cm by weekend. Below 40-35cm barge traffic stops…

If the Odessa port shipping option remains intact, it should ease the crunch considerably. Afaik, there are over 20 ships waiting for clearance. No idea whether crews are on board though
Imho, the success of this effort depends on it working for both Russia as well as Ukraine. So any report of Russian fertilizer getting delivered would be evidence that the deal is being fully implemented.

Lonewolf_50 3rd Aug 2022 01:46


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11271909)
Russia should be merged into Georgia sounds better.

Now that's a post you ought to delete, given how mind numbingly dim that statement is.

skua 3rd Aug 2022 06:52


Beamr 3rd Aug 2022 10:30

UK MoD: "As a result of a Ukrainian strike against a Russian ammunition train in Kherson oblast, southern Ukraine, it is highly unlikely the rail link connecting Kherson with Crimea remains operational."

This sounds good. Even though the invaders are probably able to repair the link in a few days, it shows that it may well be cut again in the third day. The same kind of pressure the Snake Island got. Makes life miserable for the russkies as resources like security and hardware are then needed for repairs causing lack of resources in the battle field in terms of supplies, weapons and troops, eventually they need to abandon the weak rail link and need to start driving trucks via land but they don't have enough trucks and convoys are vulnerable too... in a few months the weather starts to deteriorate temperature dropping close to zero at night with rainfalls. Hopefully Ukraine gets as much supplies from the west as possible as fast as possible before the winter to equip the hundreds of thousands of troops Ukraine is getting out of the training, at the same time the Russian resources are being eaten out meaning they need to scrape even older and worse equipment from the stock.



langleybaston 3rd Aug 2022 10:36

And the good Russians
 
Beyond the Russian military dead, maimed physically or mentally, corrupt, sadistic, incompetent will be the intrinsically genuinly decent blokes. They will exist........
these will be much like our regular forces as humans BUT WITHOUT BELIEF, ETHOS, LEADERSHIP, PROPER TRAINING,POOR EQUIPMENT, BAD MEMORIES etc.
These potentially good guys will be no match for their enemies fighting a just war, a just war by any standards of ancient statehood law.

Beamr 3rd Aug 2022 10:46

Russian proofs... :}


NutLoose 3rd Aug 2022 11:20

Ferries being used to ferry both Military and civilian traffic, It makes sense from the Russians perspective, Ukraine probably won't hit the ferries if they have civilians on board. The Ukrainians on them probably do not realise they are being used as Human shields.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1554758077836050435



..

ORAC 3rd Aug 2022 11:24

Rare footage of no less than four M142 HIMARS in action, firing 24 M31A1 GMLRS unitary rockets at Russian targets.

This footage is notable not just for the quantity but also the daytime usage of HIMARS. Note the Ukrainian soldier with possible MANPADS to the left.

NutLoose 3rd Aug 2022 12:06

Azerbaijani authorities confirmed to supply LGB's for the Su25, I wonder how they will spike the target.


MJ89 3rd Aug 2022 12:17



NutLoose 3rd Aug 2022 12:17

And they're racking up the list.

https://topcargo200.com/

ORAC 3rd Aug 2022 13:41

Russian control loosening all around the periphery elsewhere. When the cat’s away….

Renewed conflict in Karabakh…..


Lonewolf_50 3rd Aug 2022 13:51


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11272388)
Russian control loosening all around the periphery elsewhere. When the cat’s away….
Renewed conflict in Karabakh…..

Excellent link, and aviation content! (Drones + mortars as a method, seen that before). Thank you ORAC! :ok:


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