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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

tdracer 6th Aug 2022 00:04


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11273697)
Against that is the size of the facility.
Nuclear plants are pretty big, they don't explode if one punches a hole into the concrete containment shell.
To do serious damage, one would ideally hit the reactor, a pressure vessel entombed at the base of the containment.
Seen that the resultant mess would be yours to clean up, if you win, neither combatant has any interest in doing so.

To state the painfully obvious - these are not "western" nuclear facilities. The Russian/Soviet standards are not nearly so robust.

Lonewolf_50 6th Aug 2022 01:57


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11273585)
The containment envelope ( of Western plants ) is supposed to withstand a very large passenger plane striking it, so even a 155 mm shell shouldn't be too much of qa challenge.

You want to bet your health on that?

Lonewolf_50 6th Aug 2022 02:00


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11273669)
Didn’t the US take out the Iraqi none nuclear power plant by stuffing one missile into the wall to punch a hole into it, then sticking another one through the said hole to take out the generation plant

Don't you mean the Israelis? The US blew up a lot of stuff in Iraq, but a nuclear plant wasn't one of them.

fdr 6th Aug 2022 02:23


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11273669)
Didn’t the US take out the Iraqi none nuclear power plant by stuffing one missile into the wall to punch a hole into it, then sticking another one through the said hole to take out the generation plant

Containment requirements

https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/public...ub1189_web.pdf

..

Ilan Ramon, who was killed on the Columbia STS-107 was one of the pilots on the Osirak NPP raid flying his F-16...

fdr 6th Aug 2022 02:38


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11273317)
Drones are really changing the way war is fought. How to protect troops from drones will be in the "very urgent acquisition list" of probably every army on earth. All one needs is a drone with some payload capability and a release servo, pick a grenade of your choice and off you go.
https://twitter.com/LXSummer1/status...26674928779265

That conscripted soldier has a severe brain injury that is causing his behavior, the guy is seriously injured. It may be shrapnel to the head, or just concussion but he is having a very bad day and probably the rest of his life will be altered by this one moment. The harm to any individual is a sad event, it may be necessary but it is not a point of amusement I would suggest. The Russians are committing horrific acts, they need to go home, and if they don't then they need to be neutralised, and that does cause death, all of which should be regrettable at the same time as it is necessary.

peter we 6th Aug 2022 03:36


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11273746)
That conscripted soldier has a severe brain injury that is causing his behavior, the guy is seriously injured. It may be shrapnel to the head, or just concussion but he is having a very bad day and probably the rest of his life will be altered by this one moment. The harm to any individual is a sad event, it may be necessary but it is not a point of amusement I would suggest. The Russians are committing horrific acts, they need to go home, and if they don't then they need to be neutralised, and that does cause death, all of which should be regrettable at the same time as it is necessary.

He's a volunteer, no Russia conscripts allowed in Ukraine.

Winemaker 6th Aug 2022 03:55


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11273732)
Don't you mean the Israelis? The US blew up a lot of stuff in Iraq, but a nuclear plant wasn't one of them.

And was it an operating reactor or a reactor in construction or initial fuel loading. There's a big difference between an operating plant and one that has never gone critical. As to Soviet reactors, containment is not to international standards per Chernobyl.

ORAC 6th Aug 2022 05:56


He's a volunteer, no Russia conscripts allowed in Ukraine.
ROFL,

Tell that to the families of the conscripts told they were just going to Belarus for an exercise.…

NutLoose 6th Aug 2022 05:59

I must admit I have wondered if this is the Ukrainians plan for a while, make a big play for Kherson drawing Russian troops from elsewhere to bottle them up by dropping bridges and taking out their supply dumps and resupply lines thus rendering them less combat effective while maintaining the ability to accurately hit high value targets,

Thus while the other areas especially around the likes of Izyum, allow the Ukrainians a breathing space and the ability to stall the Russian advance by pushing on Izyum and cutting off the Russian main supply route into the region.


https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...m_campaign=RSS

peter we 6th Aug 2022 07:42


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11273793)
ROFL,

Tell that to the families of the conscripts told they were just going to Belarus for an exercise.…

that was long ago. They were withdrawn pretty quickly.

henra 6th Aug 2022 08:02


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11273759)
He's a volunteer, no Russia conscripts allowed in Ukraine.

Probably true (yet there do seem to be also conscripts involved) but still the fact that some ugly mercenary troops engaged and also some individual regular Army Soldiers (often from Chechnya - but those are not the ones in the trenches) are and have been committing atrocities and war crimes doesn't mean this particular guy wasn't a poor Joe average coming from a poor region in Russia where joining the Army was one of the few options feeding his family.
I'm with @fdr on this one.
I'm genuinely happy for each ammo storage flying to the moon. I'm happy for each arty piece or tank sending its turret to a geostationary transfer orbit. For each Cruise missile or Russian Fighter Jet being shot down. Yet I can't feel genuine happiness seeing this kind of vids. May have been a nice bloke that just signed the wrong paper. Will never return to a normal life like so many others in wars fought because some elderly sh*tbag has an itch for glory.

Beamr 6th Aug 2022 08:26

Those ammo storages have staff.
with every turret, three troops blow up.
with every aircraft there are pilots.
in every trench there is an undisclosed amount of people.
Ii is easier to see a MBT blow up since you cant see the blood and guts that have spread out evenly to every corner. Or smeared the inside of the turret.

These videos aren't nice, especially since that specific video made suffering a comedy. That is wrong.

However, I despise even more castration videos, rape videos, torture videos, videos showing buildings with children blown up. These are the aggressors, invaders, those people in trenches chose to be there, they knew the dangers and odds and that may happen when you choose that uniform. If they can't fathom that it is a killing business, it's their personal issue.

henra 6th Aug 2022 09:31


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11273835)
These videos aren't nice, especially since that specific video made suffering a comedy. That is wrong.

That was my point. This is not comedy. This is tragedy.
Even for many/most of the individual Russian soldiers (Wagner/Chechen thugs excluded they are there fully knowing what they signed). And Yes, they did sign the paper themselves. Did the average regular Army Soldier think they would ever go to war? I'm sure, No. Russian regular Army has seen very little to no combat in the last 75 years (and it shows by their inexperience and lacking proficiency). >>90% of the dirty messing Russia did in the last decades was by rather 'irregular' troops plus a tiny bit of Air Force. Main exception being the Helicopter crews in Afghanistan back in the day.

wondering 6th Aug 2022 09:57

UKR needs a lot more heavy gear to push back RU. A few HIMARS and arty pieces don´t change the fundamental metrics. RU still has a lot more. Otherwise, UKR keeps loosing too many soldiers just trying to hold off RU.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/...gainst-russia/

I hope, I am wrong. But, the published RU combat losses by UKR look inflated. Definitely too high for aircraft and helicopters.

https://static.euromaidanpress.com/w...-172754-2.jpeg





fdr 6th Aug 2022 10:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11273795)
I must admit I have wondered if this is the Ukrainians plan for a while, make a big play for Kherson drawing Russian troops from elsewhere to bottle them up by dropping bridges and taking out their supply dumps and resupply lines thus rendering them less combat effective while maintaining the ability to accurately hit high value targets,
Thus while the other areas especially around the likes of Izyum, allow the Ukrainians a breathing space and the ability to stall the Russian advance by pushing on Izyum and cutting off the Russian main supply route into the region.

Nutty, you could be right, but the UF would need pretty good C&C and unimpeded supply chains to pull of something like that off. The lead up to Kherson was pretty much the antithesis of any of the Sun Tzu mantra's... hard to have the advantage of surprise when you are sending the plan to the Red Team by all mediums. About the only thing that doesn't rely on surprise is long range arty, and even then, it is a factor as stats show, the first salvo does the harm, the recipients are big on getting into cover otherwise. (the reason the PzH2K fires 5 rounds with simultaneous TOT).

A run to Izium and cutoff of the Red Teams NE MSR would be a pretty gutsy move...

The UF have shown an ability to be effective at interdiction, matching the Red Teams own goal on the train set with their own bit of mayhem on munitions trains. As difficult as things have been in the field for the UF, the C&C of the Team Bled has been pretty patchy, being short by 1000 officers of various flavours probably helps there.Pushing ground troops into Kherson right now without having depleted the Team Rouge's ammo would be difficult. The defence is still doing work well above their weight, but need more assistance from those that benefit from their standing the wall for the rest of us ingrates.

The Vermillions are still left with a problem in Kherson, their shortest supply route is pretty banged up, and the other options are limited and exposed too. The option for an Incheon moment has more or less gone to the bottom of the Black Sea, not before time.

Prefer that Puteen just decides to go home and tend to his flock there, as it does appear that the ball of wool that is the RF today is starting to get decidedly raggedy around the edges. there is a real risk that the overextended RF can no longer hold the union of love and kindness together, which should make for a need for lots of popcorn. At the rate that the carmines are going they will at least save on voting costs for the next celebration of Krimmin power, they will have Moscow and... St Pete's, and the rest of the great land will be looking towards their own independence from the yokels in the big cerise shed with the pointy roofs.

Russia is able to make threats that they have made since Sting made songs about their antics, China has the wheels coming off the rickshaw at an accelerating pace, and adds more reasons for the global supply chain to reset to countries that are less intent on pi$$ing off their customers and neighbours while endeavouring to support despotic Dear Leaders.

There were apparently some northerners in Formosa some 6,000 years back, but they didn't stay, they then returned to cause some mischief 5,500 years later, and then handed it over to the dudes from the land of far far away, who barely did anything to it. Post the antics of Mr & Mrs Mao, CKS and his band actually made something of the place, and it is a pretty darn neat place today. PRC has their hands full redoing the wheel nuts on the rickshaw, Taiwan adds nothing to their resume, and it alienates their faltering wonder economy from those that actually made that possible. "there be dragons... ".



ORAC 6th Aug 2022 10:59


that was long ago. They were withdrawn pretty quickly.
I presume the ones being press-ganged in Donetsk and Luhansk don't count....


jolihokistix 6th Aug 2022 11:13

Fdr quote: “and then handed it over to the dudes from the land of far far away, who barely did anything to it.”

Apparently they turned the arid eastern quarters into fertile agricultural lands inter alia, which is one of the many reasons the two countries have such a close relationship today.

Tartiflette Fan 6th Aug 2022 12:15


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11273666)
I would suspect you have no idea what you are talking abou?

An aircraft is designed for light weight to slice through the air, a shell is designed to penetrate concrete with explosive plasma jets to severe steel let alone a few inches of concrete.

Bottom line - the containment vessel is easily penetrated - and the external cooling systems and ponds are obviou and unprotected.

You are right that I have no special knowledge but I was paraphrasing articles I had read. The Swiss publication below confirms that , although there are seemingly more incremental changes than I remembered.


https://www.ensi.ch/de/2011/11/04/ke...zeugabstuerze/ (partial translation "Nuclear power plants are sufficiently protected against aircraft impact " )

"a shell is designed to penetrate concrete with explosive plasma jets to severe steel let alone a few inches of concrete."

When you write this, you are also venturing outside your sphere of expertise. What you describe there is a shaped-charge war-head which is, as far as I have been able to find out, not used in field-artillery. The reason is obvious: this is an indirect fire weapon and until now the accuracy simply wasn't there, and using such charges would have been sheer waste. Artillery shells are normally designed to kill and destroy with blast and/or shrapnel, or possibly distribute sub-munitions
i.e. spreading the effect of the explosion rather than concentrating it.

ORAC 6th Aug 2022 12:33


What you describe there is a shaped-charge war-head which is, as far as I have been able to find out, not used in field-artillery.
I presume Russia will have an equivalent, even if not publicised.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155

SMart 155 armour piercing artillery shell. Believed in use by Ukraine, or the French equivalent.

https://mezha.media/en/2022/07/12/sm...-or-155-bonus/

SMArt 155 or 155 BONUS? The Armed Forces use very interesting high-precision projectiles to destroy the enemy

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army...tillery-shell/

ORAC 6th Aug 2022 16:45

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...854499328.html

How has the Russian army responded to the huge casualties it's suffered in Ukraine? For a bonus 🧵, I'll draw once more on @wartranslated's archive of translated phone calls by Russian soldiers, which have been intercepted and published by the Ukrainians.

——————-

Original Twitter thread with links to his previous threads..




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