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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Video Mixdown 23rd Nov 2022 20:10


Originally Posted by JulieAndrews (Post 11336107)
on the chopper front - I'm not sure 3 Sea Kings is going to do it ........plus the shed full of spares to keep them going for the week.

They have clearly been offered and since UKR have accepted they must see them as a useful asset. If any other country had done this it would be seen as praiseworthy, but because it's the UK your first reaction is ridicule. Why would that be?
​​​​​​


Low average 23rd Nov 2022 20:13


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11336140)
They have clearly been offered and since UKR have accepted they must see them as a useful asset. If any other country had done this it would be seen as praiseworthy, but because it's the UK your first reaction is ridicule. Why would that be?
​​​​​​


These are very old, mothballed airframes. I'm not sure of their value either. On the other hand, I think the Ukranians would benefit from plenty of warm, fighting gear.

ORAC 23rd Nov 2022 20:13

The three SK supplied are SAR versions for aeromed etc, not the ASW birds.

Meanwhile.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022...on-to-ukraine/

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon said it will send Ukraine up to $400 million in artillery ammunition, weapons and supplies in its latest drawdown package to help the nation defend itself against Russia.

The security assistance package announced Wednesday includes more ammunition for HIMARS, HARM and 200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement.

It also includes 150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights that Ukraine could use to shoot down Russian drones, the Pentagon said, as well as 10,000 120mm mortar rounds and additional munitions for NASAMS, air defense systems developed by Norway’s Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace and U.S. firm Raytheon Technologies.…

NutLoose 23rd Nov 2022 20:19


Originally Posted by JulieAndrews (Post 11336107)
on the chopper front - I'm not sure 3 Sea Kings is going to do it ........plus the shed full of spares to keep them going for the week.

Have they provided them with torpedoes or Compatible missiles?

ORAC 23rd Nov 2022 20:19

Reference Wagner and the hammer..


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....699c1f62b4.png

NutLoose 23rd Nov 2022 20:33


Originally Posted by Old_Slartibartfast (Post 11336082)
Much as I've been very reluctant for the West to get involved in yet another conflict on foreign soil, I am seriously worried that this view is going to gain more traction over the coming weeks and months. It frankly terrifies me if it were to happen, as our (as in the West's) track record of engaging in military action in foreign lands isn't exactly a glowing recommendation for the idea.

The multibillion dollar question is knowing how Russia might react if the West were to directly intervene, or even just give Ukraine longer range weapons that could strike deep within Russia. I frankly do not trust any of our assessments of Russian capability, as the past 9 months have proved, beyond doubt, that every one of our assessments has been completely wrong. If we can have been so wrong about their military capability, what else have we seriously misjudged about Russia?

The major fear is that the madmen in the Kremlin may choose to do the unthinkable, and use their nuclear weapons. Some assessments of the remaining Russian weapon capability are suggesting that they have few conventional long range missiles left, and at least two reports suggest that long range missiles that landed in Ukraine, but had no warheads, were dummy nukes, perhaps fired as decoys, perhaps fired out of desperation. This war is evolving into a massively more serious phase now, with Russia under severe sanctions, with badly depleted and poorly trained and equipped land forces, having been declared a terrorist state and having expended most of its warstock of reasonably capable conventional weapons. There has to be a risk that the Kremlin may decide they have nothing to lose by using tactical nukes, and that could well be precipitated by the West upping the ante and taking more direct action.

I would not like having to sit around a table in whatever sort of decision conference decides on these things, it seems an almost intractable problem, with no good outcomes.

The ONLY way I can see them ever stopping the threat from these missiles destroying the countries infrastructure is as I said before, it’s not to keep plowing defensive weapons into the Country, because they will never catch them all, they need to give them long range weapons capable of destroying that bridge, hitting the ships, subs and loading docks in Sevastopol, also hitting the facilities launching the suicide drones and hitting the bomber launching from over the Black Sea.
And drop all the rail and road bridges linking Russia to Ukraine on both sides of the border.

After that I also think they need to give permission given to start destroying Russias power infrastructure around Moscow as well as their tv transmission masts etc..

And give them fighters, I just hope training on them has already begun.

magyarflyer 23rd Nov 2022 20:34


Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 (Post 11335935)
It's not just a sponsor. Russia is a terrorist state.

indeed we don't have the balls to call it what it is: a terrorist state not a sponsor
its time to revoke all Russian diplomats and expel them from western countries (after listening to the Russian embassador in England totally blind to the Bucha massacre).
In the meantime Putin is destroying Ukraine, nothing left but ruins and civilians lying dead. In the meantime Prigozhin has the audacity to send a blood stained hammer to the European Parliament.
The west needs to face reality. Lack of courage.

Confusious 23rd Nov 2022 20:42


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336158)
The ONLY way I can see them ever stopping the threat from these missiles destroying the countries infrastructure is as I said before, it’s not to keep plowing defensive weapons into the Country, because they will never catch them all, they need to give them long range weapons capable of destroying that bridge, hitting the ships, subs and loading docks in Sevastopol, also hitting the facilities launching the suicide drones and hitting the bomber launching from over the Black Sea.
And drop all the rail and road bridges linking Russia to Ukraine on both sides of the border.

After that I also think they need to give permission given to start destroying Russias power infrastructure around Moscow as well as their tv transmission masts etc..

Agreed, but the resistance to send the required offensive hardware is probably fuelled by the same fear as physical intervention, lighting Putin's unpredictable fuse.

Herod 23rd Nov 2022 20:43

Fighting a war where one side is not allowed to strike the other's territory is like playing football where one side isn't allowed over the half-way line. Makes no sense.

Old_Slartibartfast 23rd Nov 2022 20:56

What we don't know (and quite rightly so) is what's being done in terms of training those Ukrainians that are here and in the USA. There have been Ukrainian troops on Salisbury Plain for some time now, for example, and I've no doubt they are probably training elsewhere as well. Giving Ukraine long range weapons is sod all use unless they are competent to deploy them very effectively.

Think back to how long it takes to learn to use any bit of fairly complex kit competently. It's not a short process, especially as we know that they will get zero additional training when they get home, they need to be ready to use any new weapons and systems they are given the moment that set foot back on Ukrainian soil. For all we know that process might well be going on now, with a publicity black out because no one would want to tip off Russia as to what might be pointed in their direction before too long.

ORAC 23rd Nov 2022 21:51

😁😁😁😁

A confectionery producer in Kazakhstan dropped a new ad for their chocolate bar called “Kazakhstan”.

In it, what looks like a Russian draft dodger walks over to Kazakhstan and is handed a chocolate bar.

He asks what it is and is told, “It’s the taste of freedom.”

Absolute fire.
​​​​​​​

ORAC 23rd Nov 2022 21:57

Germany offered to move patriot air defense systems to Poland after missiles killed two polish citizens.

Poland ask Germany to move them to Ukraine.

​​​​​​​Legends.

ORAC 23rd Nov 2022 22:28

I’m seeing more and more talk of a Russian and Kazakhstan possible conflict... from both sides.

This is like a wounded animal lashing out at anyone.

Kazakhstan has a capable military, a big enough army and the Russian space program.

Go ahead and f around and find out

NutLoose 23rd Nov 2022 23:01

​​​​​​​

NutLoose 23rd Nov 2022 23:03


Originally Posted by Old_Slartibartfast (Post 11336176)
What we don't know (and quite rightly so) is what's being done in terms of training those Ukrainians that are here and in the USA. There have been Ukrainian troops on Salisbury Plain for some time now, for example, and I've no doubt they are probably training elsewhere as well. Giving Ukraine long range weapons is sod all use unless they are competent to deploy them very effectively.

Think back to how long it takes to learn to use any bit of fairly complex kit competently. It's not a short process, especially as we know that they will get zero additional training when they get home, they need to be ready to use any new weapons and systems they are given the moment that set foot back on Ukrainian soil. For all we know that process might well be going on now, with a publicity black out because no one would want to tip off Russia as to what might be pointed in their direction before too long.

On the liberation of Kherson film, one of the soldiers was wearing on his chest the Union flag badge with the top half yellow and the bottom blue, which I think those trained in the U.K. had.

NutLoose 23rd Nov 2022 23:06

Shows some of Russia's losses in one region.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/UkraineRussia2/status/1595478650790375424

..

rattman 23rd Nov 2022 23:07


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11336229)
I’m seeing more and more talk of a Russian and Kazakhstan possible conflict... from both sides.

Sounds like hes just making stuff up. no way either would start a war

BlankBox 23rd Nov 2022 23:49


That includes replacing the string of 1980s-era radars in Canada’s north that form the backbone of this country’s contribution to Norad with more modern systems that can see farther and detect and track new types of weapons.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russia-res...011012308.html

ORAC 24th Nov 2022 05:47

More on the previous report if the withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea….


https://censor.net/en/video_news/338...ia_videophotos

Russians massively transfer military equipment from occupied Crimea to mainland - media. VIDEO&PHOTOS

In the occupied Crimea, a lively movement of columns of Russian military equipment was recorded from the occupied Kherson region in the direction of the Kerch bridge….

ORAC 24th Nov 2022 07:40

Excellent thread on remaining Russian ASM/SSM/IRBM stocks.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...889127936.html

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 09:06


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11336317)
More on the previous report if the withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea….


https://censor.net/en/video_news/338...ia_videophotos

Russians massively transfer military equipment from occupied Crimea to mainland - media. VIDEO&PHOTOS

In the occupied Crimea, a lively movement of columns of Russian military equipment was recorded from the occupied Kherson region in the direction of the Kerch bridge….

As the main routes from Crimea to the Donbas are more or less under Ukrainian fire coverage, I wonder if they are going to either ship them through Russia and in via the border, either that or they could be transports that brought in Mobilics and are going for more. Let's hope they are just legging it.

Andrewgr2 24th Nov 2022 10:34


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11336352)
Excellent thread on remaining Russian ASM/SSM/IRBM stocks.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...889127936.html

If the numbers in this thread are reliable it sadly looks like the rain of precision missiles falling on the beleaguered people of Ukraine doesn’t have to stop any day soon even if stocks have been much depleted. Of course it may be that some of the remaining stock has been ‘converted’ into yachts and palaces. We can hope.

Beamr 24th Nov 2022 11:02


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 11336452)
If the numbers in this thread are reliable it sadly looks like the rain of precision missiles falling on the beleaguered people of Ukraine doesn’t have to stop any day soon even if stocks have been much depleted. Of course it may be that some of the remaining stock has been ‘converted’ into yachts and palaces. We can hope.

the thing is that Russia can't empty their stocks to Ukraine. They really need to have stocks to keep up deterrence and readiness. In essence, they should be decreasing their usage of missiles very sharply very soon.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 11:10

Armenia just stuck the knife into Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) :}


They got their wish


So the fact the CSTO is no more there are unhappy people lol.


More on the reasoning behind it.


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...1860c667b2d30f


That sledge hammer they sent to the EU, they should chop the head off it and send it back...


..

Andrewgr2 24th Nov 2022 12:43


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11336469)
the thing is that Russia can't empty their stocks to Ukraine. They really need to have stocks to keep up deterrence and readiness. In essence, they should be decreasing their usage of missiles very sharply very soon.

Doesn’t that assume some rational logic in their military decision making? Not too much evidence of that in their actions over the last 9 months which seem to have resulted in the destruction of a very high proportion of their military resources.

Sue Vêtements 24th Nov 2022 12:49


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336472)
That sledge hammer they sent to the EU, they should chop the head off it and send it back...

...or make up airfix kits of all the tanks, planes, helicopters, ships etc and those 1:72 soldiers in numbers to match what's been lost, shove them all in a box and give that as a present

It would have to be a big box

henra 24th Nov 2022 13:24


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336472)
Armenia just stuck the knife into Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) :}

..

That is an interesting (and for Putin most critical one) development. First signs of the end of what was the "Russian Empire". And this after first rumours/signs of Kazakhstan starting to untie the ropes to Russia...


That sledge hammer they sent to the EU, they should chop the head off it and send it back...
That move by Prigozhin/Russia was so desperate/childish as it would get in the first place. I like the idea, cutting it to slices/chopping it and handing it back, though. You have to talk to children in a way that children do understand....

Beamr 24th Nov 2022 13:38


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 11336519)
Doesn’t that assume some rational logic in their military decision making? Not too much evidence of that in their actions over the last 9 months which seem to have resulted in the destruction of a very high proportion of their military resources.

Point taken. :E

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 14:04


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11336538)
That is an interesting (and for Putin most critical one) development. First signs of the end of what was the "Russian Empire". And this after first rumours/signs of Kazakhstan starting to untie the ropes to Russia...


That move by Prigozhin/Russia was so desperate/childish as it would get in the first place. I like the idea, cutting it to slices/chopping it and handing it back, though. You have to talk to children in a way that children do understand....

The other Idea I had was to add a set of crouquet hoops, balls, three extra sledge hammers and a set of instructions to the game, then ship them back.

Or send it to Zelensky and get him and his workforce to use it in publicity photos online using it to repair damaged buildings or even knocking in tent pegs etc, those will soon get back to Russia, showing both EU support by donating it and Ukrainain's using the Russians attempt as showing it's might in a practical everyday lowly use..

..

langleybaston 24th Nov 2022 14:04


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11336538)
That is an interesting (and for Putin most critical one) development. First signs of the end of what was the "Russian Empire". And this after first rumours/signs of Kazakhstan starting to untie the ropes to Russia...


That move by Prigozhin/Russia was so desperate/childish as it would get in the first place. I like the idea, cutting it to slices/chopping it and handing it back, though. You have to talk to children in a way that children do understand....

I have seen nothing of the original disgusting gesture in the media. Have I missed it, or is such crass, offensive and threatening behaviour by Putin now seen as the norm?
Grotesque, the product of a warped, evil failed state.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 14:14


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11336559)
I have seen nothing of the original disgusting gesture in the media. Have I missed it, or is such crass, offensive and threatening behaviour by Putin now seen as the norm?

See

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...eu/ar-AA14vaZp

FUMR 24th Nov 2022 14:59

The best response to Prigozhin would be to send him a child's pacifier!

dead_pan 24th Nov 2022 15:18


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 11336452)
If the numbers in this thread are reliable it sadly looks like the rain of precision missiles falling on the beleaguered people of Ukraine doesn’t have to stop any day soon even if stocks have been much depleted. Of course it may be that some of the remaining stock has been ‘converted’ into yachts and palaces. We can hope.

Given these are the only weapons Russia is really employing to any effect, I wouldn't be surprised if they directed the majority of the arms industry to contribute to their production. Unfortunately they've found a chink in Ukraine's armour and are exploiting it to the full.

dead_pan 24th Nov 2022 15:29


Yevgeny Fedorov, State Duma deputy from the United Russia party, called Armenia an "illegal state".
Seriously, what does expect the Russian state to do about this? Armenia is physically separated from Russia. What are they going to do - ask Georgia or Azerbaijan for permission to cross their territory? An airborne assault is out of the question given their airborne forces were decimated during the first months of the Ukraine invasion.

These people are so detached from reality its laughable.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 15:56


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336607)
Given these are the only weapons Russia is really employing to any effect, I wouldn't be surprised if they directed the majority of the arms industry to contribute to their production. Unfortunately they've found a chink in Ukraine's armour and are exploiting it to the full.

You would think something as simple as a net type curtain slung between some scaffolding towers would protect the substations, the suicide drones are flying from one direction so you can position the screen to cover that direction and the curtain should catch the drone in its dive before it strikes the target. They all seem to rely on basic GPS and they must have a set glidepath to the target, so the angle should be able to be worked out and a screen erected accordingly.

dead_pan 24th Nov 2022 16:18


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336626)
You would think something as simple as a net type curtain slung between some scaffolding towers would protect the substations, the suicide drones are flying from one direction so you can position the screen to cover that direction and the curtain should catch the drone in its dive before it strikes the target. They all seem to rely on basic GPS and they must have a set glidepath to the target, so the angle should be able to be worked out and a screen erected accordingly.

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

Old_Slartibartfast 24th Nov 2022 16:46


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336648)
Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.


I'd also wager that there are a lot of threat assessments regarding Russia that have been hastily re-written over the past few months. I've been well out of the loop for twelve years, but the last time I went to a RUSI conference that was discussing the potential threats Russia posed (would have been around 2008 or 2009) the capability of their air force and land forces were definitely considered to be significantly better than has been borne out by the war in Ukraine. Medium range missiles seem to be just about the only threat that might have been assessed reasonably accurately, I think.

The impression I have is that we (as in the West) paid too much heed to weapon and platform technical capability, and far too little heed to Russia's ability to effectively deploy their military capability. Ukraine has undoubtedly performed massively better than most in the West would have expected, but there seems little doubt that this has been aided by the incompetence of even some supposedly highly capable Russian forces (like the air assault force at Hostomel). Clearly, Russian logistic support seems to be poor, bordering on non-existent in some areas, which has aided and abetted Ukrainian forces.

I'd also question the decision made by Russia to initiate this war with a ground forces attack with limited top cover. The tactics seem to have been deeply flawed, and very different to those that I think Western countries might adopt. Before starting the ground forces attack against Iraq, for example, there was the "shock and awe" air and missile attack that both knocked out a fair bit of Iraq's air defences and must have played a significant part in putting the fear of god into their ground forces. We didn't see much of that from Russia at the beginning of this war, yet from what's been happening over the past few weeks it seems clear that Russia had the capability to do that.

I believe that the study of this war is going to be a set piece in military colleges around the world for years to come.

GlobalNav 24th Nov 2022 16:49


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336648)
Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

The apparent commitment not to allow attacks on Russian territory should be reassessed. Wouldn’t the Russian power grid be at least as vulnerable?

Video Mixdown 24th Nov 2022 17:37


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11336669)
The apparent commitment not to allow attacks on Russian territory should be reassessed. Wouldn’t the Russian power grid be at least as vulnerable?

That wouldn't stop the missiles. Destroying the irreplaceable Tu95/Tu160 fleets would be much more effective.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 17:42


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336648)
Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.


Already on the way tank wise according to this, though I cannot fathom what the heck the navy have to do with it.. pun intended ;)

https://worldnewsera.com/news/uk/roy...-x-ray-vision/

Another thought re the substations, stack freight containers around them to form a wall.


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