Medvedev is a sycophantic acolyte of Vlad's. Hardly any surprise there.

There have been two really really close calls that involved potential nuke releases by Russia, and in both cases, it was the Military that declined to follow the procedure/order. 27 October 1962, Valentin Grigoryevich Savitsky, the Captain of B-59, a Foxtrot with a special weapon decided that he had criteria to make a release. The 2 I/C, Vasily Aleksandrovich Arkhipov, refused to agree, a 3 man rule was in force supposedly. Arkhipov was the flotilla commander, so he had some topcover, but he got flak on return. Pretty interesting guy, was the 2 I/C on K-19 when the reactor went bad, got himself a major dose of sunshine.

In 1983, Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov stopped release of all response ICBM's following 2 false alerts in an hour, refusing to believe that there was anything other than a computer glitch, which there was.

Would Russian officers follow an order to do a release knowing that their country has a high probability of being turned into glass? If they believe the Russian land is being attacked, almost certainly. For the Ukrainians fighting for their own land? I doubt it. The RF are as disgusted by their managers as the rest of the world is, they are the ones eating bullets and getting no support on a bogus mission that they know is bogus. The troops commit atrocities, certainly, they have officers following their command system, they have brutal mercenaries, and they have conscripts that didn't know they were going to war, hop out of their helicopter/tank/BMP/BTR and find that they are invading a neighbor, and they are getting torn up as a result. They are brutalized by their system, and being on the receiving end of effective and motivated defence. They still know that Russian troops are on the other side. They do use the term Nazi, which indicates that they are either believing some of the B/S, or they are trying to placate their home fans.

1917, this may be similar. If not, then the 2014 lines and a negotiated truce may be a halfway house, but Ukraine needs absolute protection from the brutes next door, that means something more enduring than the deceit that passed for support over removal of the nuclear arms that remained in Ukraine. I would still doubt that Ukraine will buy that, they have good reason to be distrustful of vacuous promises that then get words parsed like Clinton's infamous obfuscation.

yes, he could pretend to be the gracious one and let UKR rule itself in the contested regions (so magnanimous of him) it would be a face saving move as he is forced to return to pre-2014 borders

I note that these people didn't protest because of the heinous crimes their soldiers have been committing in Ukraine, or because tens of thousands of them are being killed in Putin's war. They only became 'brave' when their own little pink bodies were being put in the trucks. Some are so brave that they're trying to escape from their own country. Like you I hope Putin's regime is soon toppled and something better emerges from the wreckage, but I have little regard for a people who either turned a blind eye to what was going on or actively encouraged it.

Good News, Russian Anti Aircraft defence is improving, they have shot down a drone....... Ohh wait a minute, it's one of theirs :E

I have no military background or experience. So I have to ask this. It seems Putin has now threatened the entire West with the use of nukes. The French, the UK and the the USA are out there with with Subs, I assume ready to launch.

Has Putin got so deranged that he is willing to destroy the world to prove a point. ( what that point is, I don’t know).

I note with interest that even China has started backing away from Putin. What scares me now, he is becoming increasingly isolated and mad.

Highly motivated person https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/6850...p-ander-niveau Scoll down a bit to see a video of a journalist calling the son of Dmitri Peskov.

If you take the view that he'll do anything to ensure his personal survival, his actions can still be interpreted as rational.

• If he withdraws entirely, he ends up going out of the window, so that's not an option - 0% chance of survival
• If he maintains the offensive, maybe something will happen in Russia's favour - unexpected gains, the West backs down etc. pretty small chance, but non-zero
• If he threatens major escalation, maybe the West gets scared and tells Ukraine to settle for a compromise or they'll withdraw support. Odds still not great, but arguably higher than just hoping something favourable happens

If he's clutching at straws, threatening to go nuclear would seem to be the biggest straw available. As for what happens if/when he finally accepts the game is up, who knows...

The thing as I see it is hopefully his military have enough sanity to not launch or remove him if he ever decided too, I believe the Russian system is not a one man system, it takes several to authentic it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-03-02/

China is trying to "broker a ceasefire" and talks, but having just met with Putin that sounds more like a Putin request to allow his troops more time to dig in and bring in reserves. Something that would disadvantage Ukraine

https://twitter.com/search?q=china%2...d_query&f=live

As the weather cools, the window incidents may reduce, gotta be motivated to open up a window on the 6th floor at -25C and -20 wind chill. Perhaps that will give Medvedev and Soigu some spine as the OH&S accident risk recedes. :O

thats VP-BVO, red wings A320 sitting in Tallinn, Estonia since 2021. In essence since prior to sanctions. The video has been doing rounds since January I believe.

Regarding Medvedev, he has been pretty consistent playing the Russian media with his hardline statements.

It appears to me that Medvedev could be a fallback position for Putin. If things continue badly, he could "resign" and install Medvedev who is no doubt controlled by him and continue pulling the strings in the background as the real ruler. It could be the perfect setup for Putin's future if things don't recover to normal for the average Russian and Medvedev's leadership is deemed soft. The people then clamor for a hardline leader and guess who reappears to 'save the day'.

Thoughts?

Russian Ka52 downed by manpad. Looks like crew survivability good.

The mobilization is apparently taken very seriously by the authorities east of Ural.
the threads on twitter are various but the message in all of them is the same: in practice every adult male is in risk being taken away. The messages from west of Ural is very different, not so much press ganging.
The speculation is that the actual amount Putin is going for is 1M men. However, they probably can't handle more than 100-150k mobilized people before running out of resources and even for those it'll be winter before they are of any use in the front.

The day of 'put up or shut up' is fast approaching. The referendums are taking place from today until the 27th in the 4 Russian 'held' regions in the East of Ukraine. Russian ministers have said that if these regions vote to join Russia, then they will be instantly accepted and will become part of the Motherland. They further said that any military action against these areas will then be deemed a direct attack against the Russian state and will attract the gravest of consequences, including Nuclear. This is not rumour or speculation - it is being openly said by Putin, Medvedev, Soigu, and others.

Now, the outcome of these referenda is of course a foregone conclusion. They will vote to join Russia. However, the area's they cover will of course really be part of Ukraine and the UKR military will not recognize the referendums (as will nobody else) and they will contine to attack and fight to regain their territory. This is precisely the scenario that Russian leaders are saying will invite a nuclear response, and this scenario is virtually inevitable - barring something completely unforseen it will happen

We will then be in a position where the bluff has been called. We will be in the situation that Putin and Medvedev said will result in the use of nukes - a direct threat to the Russian state. At this point they have options - they either do not use them and destroy the credibility of their deterrence for all time, or they use them.

I have said several times on this forum and for many months that this conflict would end either with Putin's demise or go Nuclear. It was always inevitable - the West could simply not allow Putin to win...it was never going to happen. Once Putin realized he was losing, his personality would force him to use nukes as he simply cannot countenance looking weak. For me this has always been obvious.

I pray he falls victim to high-velocity lead poisoning in the coming days, but if he does not, I see the use of nuclear weapons as a certainty.

He's gambling that his threats are enough to make the West pause, because he thinks they will never use nuclear weapons (or at least not to defend Ukraine) - remember he thinks the West is weak and won't stand up to him directly. So his rational is if he drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian city, he's not going to be getting Western SSBMs inbound.

I pray for a westerly wind.

They've already played that switcheroo after Putin's first couple of terms when the constitution prevented him from having three in a row I believe. If memory serves Medvedev became President while Putin became his "subordinate" prime minister.

Everyone knows that Medvedev is Sooty to Putins Matthew Corbett.

probably not, but since Biden very clearly said "Don"t. Don't. Don't." the Russian troops will in all probability face the full traditional warfare wrath of the west. Black sea fleet - boom. Bases in crimea - kaboom. Russian forces in Ukraine territory - gone. Anything flying over Ukraine - downed. No-fly zone in Ukraine. Full closure of Russia from everything so that even NK will seem like a regular beach holiday resort.

The Ukrainians could hack the traffic signal lights to show only green eastbound and red westbound. Chaos would reign and victory would soon follow. The city of Montreal, Canada has perfected just such a system. This technology coupled with Montreal’s tactical use of traffic cones, cement barriers, lane closures, detours and conversion of streets to bike paths is brilliant. During winter ( rapidly approaching in the Ukraine ) shambolic snow clearing operations ensures complete gridlock. Perhaps they will share their expertise.

I suspect you're right. And if Russia would look even more stupid if their nuclear strike was met with a conventional response and they were *still* getting beaten...

Edit: Or more stupid still if they fire one and it doesn't go Bang, which sounds like a non-zero probability

or goes bang on launch..........

Newspaper novaya gazeta claims, the number of mobilised reservists called up for duty is one million now, not 300 000. This is advised in the blacked out paragraph 7 of the recent government order the newspaper says.

So we think Russia's response to Ukraine attacking 'now Russian area's' will be Tac Nuclear. What response would you expect to an all out attack by NATO on Crimea / Black Sea fleet etc ?

Hutch

I foresee two options if he does use a nuke, the first (more likely) that he be issued with an ultimatum to vacate his forces from Ukraine and, failing that, NATO unleashes a conventional massive strike on his forces, effectively finishing them off, forcing him to concede and withdraw. The second is that (again, following an ultimatum), we nuke some strictly military target with direct connection to Ukraine, also with the same aim i.e. that he withdraw his forces.

If Russia responds with another strike then we could be looking at a wider conflict where we go after his C+C and missile forces.

Increasingly I think the likes of China is key here. Word is that they too are getting increasingly alarmed at the situation and are pushing for some sort of diplomatic resolution. As someone noted above, the fact were are spiralling into a potential catastrophe for no reason whatsoever is madness personified.

Denied by Peskov. But then, he swore blind that Russia had any ambitions towards Ukraine this time last year.

Much would, IMO, depend on where RU chooses to do the Stupid Thing, which I could guess would be well away from their ill-equipped and NBC-ready troops. And, of course, the readiness state of assorted Western assets [land/sea/air] to generate a swift response. That we will not know, or should not know. until they are used.

We are all standing on the cliff edge, and subject to the fantasies of Putin and his lap-dogs.

I don't think that they'd nuke Ukraine, IMO they are bluffing and if not, there surely must be reasonable people lower in the command chain capable to cut the wires of the big red button. But if they would, the can would then be open so the response would be either nuke or then not. However I think that Biden didn't bluff by saying “Don't. Don't. Don't. It would change the face of war unlike anything since the Second World War.” If the west does not respond in kind in essence striking back only with traditional means, would even Putler dare to throw a second nuke towards the US or to mediterranean in hopes to catch a carrier group as it would then inevitably mean a lot of glowing glass in Moskva.

I cannot see him nuking Ukraine for the simple reason he will destroy not only the
Ukrainian wheat production by irradiating the soil and crops, but he would wipe out a lot of Russias too wind dependant.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ba89d289ad.jpg
His sunflower production


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b323b9f131.jpg
And his Corn production.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f80b57f334.jpg
In fact a lot of Russias food production capability, see

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/rs_cropprod.aspx

The Kremlin mastermind is now giving tactical orders. Reminds me of certain Kim family, always seen with crowd of generals writing down their immortal wisdoms.

Putin decided Medvedev was unsuitable to replace him as a result of Medvedev not using Russia's veto against the attack on Libya. Medvedev was originally a Liberal, but when Putin effectively neutered him he swung massively to the right. Unless Medvedev is the leader of the Right wing which Putin allegedly fears so much within his country, he is a busted flush.

Working on the premise that, with the absence of any UKR/NATO tactical nukes there is no “escalation ladder” if they employ battlefield nukes. So, would the US risk New York to save Odessa?

https://una.org.uk/sites/default/fil...-_ted_seay.pdf

This is brilliant, Charles Pathé would be proud!

You know, I almost feel sorry for these two….. ok, I’m over it.

Accidents happen.
However now we know what the first ones mobilized will be equipped with: the 60's stuff. Imagine what the 300000th will be getting :E

I'll see what I can do. 10,000 to 20,000 ft is optimum, depends on burst height.

May have lost the touch ..........

A few months back, there was a video of one of Putin's tame TV commentators asked the rhetorical question, "Of what use is the World - without Russia in it?"

So yes, I think there is a mindset among some of Russia's power-elite that "You will, by Bog, give us an equal seat at the table - or there won't be a table."

Murder/suicides ("If I'm going to go, I'll take as many with me as possible!") are not exactly unknown on this planet.

Agree...how would the west respond to a tactical nuke? If responding in kind, then surely it has to be a cruise missile...ICBMs just raise the game massively, whether sub or land based. And what is the target? If it is within Russia, then the ICBMs may come from the east!

Maybe we accept the faked referendum results and play the long game...an aging Putin and a restless populace. Combined with sanctions and an economy going down the pan, maybe just let Russia take care of Russia. The sanctions to be reviewed if and when Ukraine returns to 2014 lines?

There are lots of non nuclear responses that would be very consequential to Russia. Mine all the ports and arrest every Russian ship and Russia’s ability to monetize its oil would be cut off. Another approach would be massive air strikes against all Russian forces on Ukrainian land. A full on NATO response would be a lot of fire power and show Western resolve.

If Putin actually uses a tactical nuke then it is an existential thread to Western Democracies. This is a red line that he can’t be allowed to cross without massive consequences

While I generally think Igor Sushko is a load of rubbish. Very interesting if true

If Putin uses a tactical nuke on Ukraine, the West, which is primarily the USA and the West, will strike all Russian units in Ukraine and on the border of Ukraine with a massive conventional strike or strikes until completely (and I mean completely) destroyed.
You are looking at the full weight of conventional power. Mostly sea, sub and air launched. Shock and awe the likes of which we have not seen.
All this would come with an ultimatum that another nuke strike would result in a massive retaliatory nuke strike.
It's the second Putin nuke that worries me.