it allows him an escape from his current position. I think you might be right. Interesting to see what the Israeli PM has to say as they are specialists in land borders

I tend to agree, however a Ukraine without a major port is going to be severely challenged.

I suspect that if he does go down this route, he will be wanting a significant lifting of Western sanctions, perhaps in exchange for a port…

". Hopefully there would be very smart ways to accomplish this."


GlobhalNav - We are not talking about some secret software for Facebook here.. If you and we can't see it, it's not there. Although that's not to say "it "can't be negotiated by sensible people on both sides.

Their aim is, according to the leaked map by the muppet in Belarus, to link up with the Russian Exclave in Moldova that goes by the name of Transnistria. There are Russian "peace-keeping" troops stationed there - but I believe I saw a UA graphic showing it as a location of a missile launch on the first day of the "special operation".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

I certainly hope for successful diplomatic negotiations but it doesn’t appear that Putin does so in good faith. If the US, NATO, and/or EU nations must respond to further escalations by him, I only hope it’s accomplished with best wisdom they can muster. (Perhaps there is more wisdom that we on PPRUNE, alone, can muster.)

I am confused why people keep saying he is going to make a move on Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden, Finland et al.
Looking at progress so far and the skill of his forces, I fail to see how they would all make it back home after a ceasefire without getting lost and ending up in India.
At this stage even making it as far a Kiev is looking fanciful.
Listening to Radio 4 today "Any Answers" some of the public are in uproar as to why we and NATO are not doing more, with no fly zones etc.
The Ukrainians are doing just fine with all the weapons being smuggled in, the missiles are doing fantastically and that is not going to stop.
The real time intelligence is making a real difference, how else are Russian Commanders getting bumped off, as well as saboteurs etc.

The whole world is in on this conflict without troops on the ground and no - no fly zone.
This pragmatic approach is all part of the game that all sides know.

Who knows what Putin’s true intentions are, but escalation beyond Ukraine is not out of the question for someone as deranged as he. I wouldn’t interpret the rate of Russian conquest this past week as a sign of their inability, only a sign of their adherence to Russian military strategy/tactics. I wish this were not so and I am not giving up on a rigorous and courageous Ukrainian resistance continuing well beyond Russia’s initial victory.

For example, today Rivet Joint ZZ665 has spent hours flogging up and down the Belarus & Ukraine borders presumably gathering every snippet it can (now heading home for a well-earned resupply of pies). Given the value to Ukraine of such activities, how long before someone on the Russian side in a fit of pique decides 'enough is enough' and takes out one of such monitoring aircraft? (Hopefully never...)

Do the rivet aircraft have escorts?

I suspect so, seeing all of the Tankers operating over that area. The odd Typhoon pops up on FR24 over Romania from time to time.

Yep, I think all along his plan has been to take and control the whole of the northern Black Sea coast around to Romanian border, and that map of the invasion plan shown by the Belarus puppet pretty much showed no major invasion incursion to the left of this red line, and he may well be 'content' to leave Lviv as 'capital' of a reduced by over two-thirds in size Ukraine to the left of the red line, if he controls everything to the right of the line.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fc87d2f6cd.jpg

Fully in agreement, although I have to think back to my adolescence when i distinctly know that I thought about major geopolitical problems and believed that "much more intelligent people would solve them " and I would not have to worry.

Decades later, documents would reveal that they were not much smarter than me, and all kinds of terrible solutions were being floated on the table.

But it does have nukes, and a leader that so it seems isn’t afraid to use them. I don’t think they will be having any northern adventures soon.

I don’t think the Chinese have any expansionist goals other than Taiwan. They are content to rule by economics. In that they loan then take control. Fair enough. The US has done it long enough.

There is absolutely 100% no way he leaves Kiev in Ukrainian hands. The capture of that city is the sole reason he has done what he has. All the other reasons are secondary. This has always been about him securing the birthplace of mother Russian. Which is Kiev. It’s an obsession with him. Which is also why I don’t think he has any ideas on other countries. He will be satisfied with Kiev.

The escorts are going to be next to useless if someone decides to “take a shot”. It won’t be done air to air. I don’t think there is much possibility of someone getting annoyed and taking a shot. If anything I would think it leans the other way. If ordered they may still take the shot but would have a few moments of second thoughts.

I think most Russians like the way it is now as opposed to the repressive Soviet Union days. They like their Facebook, twitter, and holidays to the Med. hence the mass uprising in Russia and almost as many people fleeing Russia as are fleeing Ukraine!

There have been a lot of Indian C-17s flying in and out of eastern Europe in the last few days. Maybe they've already stated bringing hem back.

On a more serious note, there was a C-32A that looked like it was heading into Moldova or point east earlier.

And you think the people of Ukraine would settle for that, and a "promise" he won't take more? After what they have been through?

Maybe Kiev will be his final resting place.

Exactly this - the people of Ukraine won't be happy until every last Russian soldier is back in Russia and not in any position to come back.

This is a little odd: I'm on the gov dot yookay email list for Covid travel restrictions and today I got this

Change made:
If you began your journey in Russia, you do not need to complete a passenger locator form, or take a COVID-19 test before travel to England or on arrival.

Not really sure what the goal is here? Welcoming dissidents maybe? or have they just not been paying attention?