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-   -   Here it comes: Syria (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria.html)

racedo 6th May 2013 22:26

Assad has diddled the Pooch....he has authorized combat action against the Israeli's! So he is going to fight a Civl War and the Israeli's....now that is chutzpah!
I believe BiBi took a call from the Russians today in Shanghai......there will be no more air attacks as otherwise Syria will have right on its side in attacking Israel.

BiBi wouldn't be in Shanghai if there was an attack going to occur................it will all go calm.

SASless 7th May 2013 00:59

Self Defense is always a Nation's Right!

Nothing about Assad is "right".

I said at the end of the Gulf War (the first one), we should road march the US Military through Syria to the Med and put them on ships there as it would solve a problem with Syria and make the homebound freight a lot cheaper than having to go the long way round.

500N 7th May 2013 01:06

Jesus SAS, they couldn't even go to Bahgdad and you wanted
them to march to the Med, cleaning up all the xxxx along the
way :O

Nice idea.

Would have stopped Syria from being a large entry point for
rebels in Gulf Two.

Roland Pulfrew 7th May 2013 06:50

Nothing about Assad is "right".
Well except that prior to the western supported "Arab Spring" men and women in Syria had access to education, reasonable health care, access to work, relative prosperity, freedom of religion, relative peace and security (a bit like Iraqis under Saddam).

What have they got now? And what will they have when the Islamic Terrorists finally win, with western support? I'll put money it won't be better than what they had under Assad and in several respects it will be a lot worse.

Lonewolf_50 7th May 2013 13:17

The rocket fire was “apparently connected to the situation inside Syria,” she added, suggesting Israel was not targeted but that it was a spillover of fighting between the Syrian regime and rebels.

“The Israeli army combed the sector the rockets fell in and informed the UN
forces deployed in the Golan,” the spokeswoman said.
I doubt the Israelis will consider it a casus beli

I suspect they don't want to get involved in the Syria fight, and that Assad is to them a lesser of two evisl sort of deal.

GreenKnight121 7th May 2013 22:47

Israel invading Syria would be a huge gift to Assad, as the more radical Islamicists in the rebels would immediately shift all of their attention to the IDF forces, taking most of the pressure off Assad's loyalists.

Israel knows this, which is why the only thing they are doing is hitting arms shipments heading from Syria to Lebanon.

Lonewolf_50 8th May 2013 14:07

Some critical thinking applied to Syria and the Region
Andrew J. Bacevich
An excerpt from his recent comments on the security issues in Syria

Recall that the modern Middle East is a relatively recent creation. It emerged from the wreckage of World War I, the handiwork of cynical and devious European imperialists. As European (and especially British) power declined after World War II, the United States, playing the role of willing patsy, assumed responsibility for propping up this misbegotten product of European venality -- a dubious inheritance, if there ever was one.

Now it's all coming undone. {Aside: Lonewolf_50 notes that Yugoslavia came undone similarly, and was constructed similarly}

Today, from the Maghreb to Pakistan, the order created by the West to serve Western interests is succumbing to an assault mounted from within. Who are the assailants? People intent on exercising that right to self- determination that President Woodrow Wilson bequeathed to the world nearly 100 years ago.

What these multitudes are seeking remains to be seen. But they don't want and won't countenance outside interference.

Anyone fancying that the United States can forestall this quest for self-determination should think again. Anyone who thinks Washington can bend the process to suit our own purposes needs to undertake a remedial study of the Iraq War.

Americans have long entertained the conceit that we are bigger than history. We provide the drumbeat to which others march. Sorry: Not so.

By way of comparison, think of those stories about the sea encroaching on some Nantucket or Plum Island home. Those immediately affected might delude themselves into thinking that a bit of sand replenishment will save the day. Grown-ups know better. Ultimately, the winds and tides, reinforced of late by climate change, will have their way.

So too with the Greater Middle East. Pressure on Obama to "do something" about Syria continues to mount. Perhaps he'll refuse. I hope so. Or perhaps he'll cave, with Syria becoming yet another active theater in what has become America's endless War To Be Named Later. One thing is certain: US intervention in Syria won't affect the tsunami of change that is engulfing the Islamic world.
Why should we consider what Bacevich writes? Well, he's one of oure brotherhood, albeit currently a professor of history and international relations at Boston University. He's been critiquing US security policy for decades. I don't always agree with him, but he usually gets me thinking.

I think he got this one right.

His Bona Fides:
Bacevich graduated from West Point in 1969. He served a one year tour in Vietnam, 1970 to 1971. {The first book of his that I read was on Vietnam}. Later he held posts in Germany, including 11th ACR, and in the Persian Gulf. Retired Colonel. He holds a Ph.D. in American Diplomatic History from Princeton University. Taught at West Point and Johns Hopkins University, now at Boston University since 1998.

Bacevich's son, a first Lt, was killed in action in Iraq by an IED (In Iraq, near Samarra) in 2007. (3rd Bn, 8th U.S. Cavalry Regt, 1st Cav.) Bacevich is of Lithuanian ancestry, and has described himself as a "Catholic conservative.

In this article his criticism of both GW Bush and B Obama regarding America's wars is concisely presented. Punch line:

"Who is more deserving of contempt? The commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause, however misguided (Bush), in which he sincerely believes? Or the commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause in which he manifestly does not believe and yet refuses to forsake?" {Lonewolf notes: the latter could also be said of LBJ}

Roland Pulfrew 9th May 2013 09:56

And here is a slightly different take from the BBC

Whatever happens, I think that the "west" should steer well clear of arming the terrorists in this case, unless (and its probably already too late) we want to see another ME country tearing itself apart because of a split in Islam several hundred years ago. Whatever one may think of the current/former leaders of Syria, Iraq, Libya etc these countries did not suffer the religous slaughter that now pervades each country and which is likely to endure for years :(


Not sure that the "venal Europeans" can really be "blamed" for Yugoslavia; the desire to form such a state was driven largely by the population involved (at least according to Wikipedia). And of course the fact that the US "assumed responsibility" was nothing to do with US access to oil, was it? Not saying that Mr Bacevich is entirely wrong, just that there is a bit of pro-American and anti-European rhetoric in that article. :=

Eclectic 9th May 2013 10:04

Russia to supply 6 Grumble launchers and 144 missiles to Assad. This is a substantial strategic game changer and would deter the Israelis from further action. Also any Western enforced no fly zone would be a lot more difficult to police.

Story from WSJ: U.S. Is Warned Russia Plans Syria Arms Sale - WSJ.com

Eclectic 10th May 2013 09:38

Turks very keen for a no fly zone. Erdo?an: Türk hastanelerinde kimyasal silahtan etkilenmi? Suriyeli yaral?lar var - WSJ.com
Akrotiri will be busy.
What UK assets will go? GR4s for SEAD + AWACs + tankers?

TEEEJ 11th May 2013 15:10

The Russian Foreign Minister has cleared up the rumours of S-300s being supplied to Syria.

No S-300 supplies planned, Russia finalizes standing Syrian weapons contracts - Lavrov

Russia is not planning to supply Syria with any weapons beyond the current contracts that are nearing completion, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said refuting speculations that Moscow was going to sell S-300 air defense systems to Damascus.

“Russia does not plan to sell,” Lavrov told reporters on being asked on S-300 air defense systems rumors. He stressed that Russia has only been fulfilling contracts that have already been signed with Syria for defensive weapons.
No S-300 supplies planned, Russia finalizes standing Syrian weapons contracts - Lavrov ? RT News

ORAC 11th May 2013 16:30

Turkey-Syria border town hit by car bombs

Syria's civil war spilled over the border into southern Turkey on Saturday when a series of car bombs killed 40 people in the town of Reyhanli.

This was the bloodiest incident on Turkish soil since the onset of Syria's civil war in 2011. Four explosions near the town hall devastated the centre of Reyhanli in the Turkish province of Hatay. Muammer Guler, the interior minister, told local media that 40 people had been killed and at least 29 wounded. The government made no accusations about responsibility for the attack, but Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister, said: “Those who for whatever reason attempt to bring the external chaos into our country will get a response.”

After the bombings, local people vented their anger by vandalising cars with Syrian number plates and attacking Syrian refugees. Thousands have arrived in the area, raising tension with the Turkish host population. Reyhanli, with a population of about 60,000, is near the Cilvegozu frontier crossing with Syria.

Turkey has openly supported the Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, allowing them to arm, train and recruit using bases inside its territory. Accordingly, Syria’s regime has a motive for striking back by attacking Turkey. In the past, Syrian forces have fired artillery shells and mortar bombs over the border, killing five Turks in the village of Akcakale last October.

In the past, the Turkish army has often retaliated in kind. After the Akcakale incident, when a mother and her three daughters were among the dead, Turkey responded by bombarding targets inside Syria.

Lonewolf_50 11th May 2013 21:10

Might the PKK be stirring the pot? :sad:

racedo 11th May 2013 21:36

Could be just as easily be the Qatari and Saudis falling out because FSA is imploding and joining Al Q or Russia targeting a supply route or M16 trying it on.

Lonewolf_50 12th May 2013 15:18

M16 trying it on?
Can you explain to me what that means?

By M16 did you mean MI6? :confused:

ORAC 12th May 2013 20:49

May be true, might be Turkey setting up a casus belli, but expect either Syrian forces to be hit hard or a almost undeniable demand for a No Fly Zone.

Turkey Blames Syria for Bombing

REYHANLI, Turkey—Turkey on Sunday blamed groups connected to Syria's intelligence service for two car bombings that killed at least 46 people in a Turkish border town a day earlier, the deadliest sign yet that Syria's civil war is spilling over into neighboring states. A pair of car bombs exploded in Reyhanli, a small Turkish town near the Syrian border. More than 40 people were killed and over 100 were injured by the blasts. Photo: Associated Press.

Turkish officials said Sunday that security services had arrested nine people, all Turkish citizens, including the alleged mastermind, after two car bombings ripped through Reyhanli, a small town close to Syria. Syria denied any involvement in the bombings. Turkey's interior minister, Muammer Guler, said an investigation showed that the huge blasts—which damaged almost 500 shops, 300 homes and 60 vehicles—were carried out by a "terrorist organization in close contact with Syria's intelligence agency."

The government didn't immediately publish evidence that showed Syrian involvement, although Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said a number of the suspects had confessed links to Syrian intelligence services................

VinRouge 12th May 2013 20:53

Just as likely to be FSA trying to trigger a western response. I wonder how much of the headline massacres, use of chemical weapons has in fact been the FSA (read al q) trying to cross lines in the sand and invoke a NATO intervention.

Do we really want Al Q on the Mediterranean coast?

Lonewolf_50 13th May 2013 02:54

Not sure who "we" is but I sure don't. I see nothing good coming from that.

reynoldsno1 13th May 2013 03:33

Jabhat al-Nusra - usually reckoned to be the most successful of all the rebel groups, these guys make the Syrian Army look like a charity organisation. They have been categorised by the US as a terrorist organisation, but are Sunni-backed and led (probably) by a Golani i.e a Syrian formerly from the Golan Heights. These guys are capable, and capable of anything ....

Eclectic 13th May 2013 06:12

The sizeable Kurdish community in Syria are a complication. The Turks don't want to supply and train Syrian opposition only to end up as the victims.
Ultimately the Kurds would like to have their own country carved out from northern Iraq, a chunk of Turkey and a chunk of Syria. Just now in Syria they are asking that any post conflict settlement is a federal state with a semi-autonomous Kurdish state within a state (much like they have achieved in Iraq).

The Turks are in the middle of the process of coming to a political settlement with the Kurds. They have Abdullah Öcalan in jail, which makes him very available for negotiations.

Lots of information about the various political machinations here: ORSAM

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