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-   -   Here it comes: Syria (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria.html)

Capot 3rd Jul 2013 12:50

ORAC, you are quite right and I am guilty of gross over-simplification in the search for a succinct phrase.

Perhaps I should have said that within 60 days (+/- 30 days) the political situation in Afghanistan will be pretty much what it was before the Taliban were pushed out of Kabul all those years ago.

That, too is an oversimplification; what I'm really getting at is that our leaders should learn that squabbling Muslims are best left to get on with it, that BS about saving the world from Al Qaida is never credible when it emanates from a Western politician's backside, and that the intervention in Afghanistan has changed nothing.

alemaobaiano 3rd Jul 2013 12:53


The question would be if they ended up in an uneasy national alliance or another prolonged civil war.
I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that statement, but clearly there will be no place in any future Afghanistan for Karzai and his buddies.

Fox3WheresMyBanana 3rd Jul 2013 12:57

The horrors of civil war are not unique to Syria, Al Qaeda or any side.

Innocent civilians take refuge in a church, which the State soldiers then set fire to. The soldiers accept the surrender of the civilians, then promptly strip them naked and murder them in the street.

Damascus 2013?
No, a nice little village in England, 1643.

( and it was "moste barbarouslie & contr[ar]y to the Lawes of Armes" even then)

I am unaware of any civil war having been 'civil', and I don't think a daily detailed description of atrocities helps matters. In fact, I find it gratuitous.

ORAC 10th Jul 2013 10:24

Key White House Ally Wants 'Targeted' Strikes in Syria

WASHINGTON — The United States should press Syria and Russia to enter into talks to end the Syrian civil war, including “targeted” strikes on Bashar al-Assad’s military forces, a White House ally said Tuesday.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, an influential Obama administration ally on Capitol Hill, is calling for America and its allies to conduct “limited, targeted strikes at Assad’s apparatus of terror, including airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks and artillery.” Such strikes should be “coordinated with the actions of the Syrian opposition on the ground,” the Michigan Democrat said in a joint statement with fellow SASC member Angus King, I-Maine. “Such strikes could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, bring some relief to the embattled Syrian people, show we are serious,” said Levin and King............

Any US military involvement in the kinds of “targeted strikes” called for by Levin and King would come with a hefty price. As America learned with the Libya intervention, even modern-day aerial bombardments from aircraft and naval vessels are extremely costly. The cost of the Libya mission was around $1 billion, according to Pentagon data released in 2011.

Congressional sources are mixed about whether a new 2013 emergency spending measure tailored specifically for a Syrian effort would be needed. Some say it would depend on the shape and duration — as well as the level of direct US military involvement — of such a mission.

alemaobaiano 10th Jul 2013 10:56

Libya 2.0. Well at least they aren't calling it "humanitarian" this time.

They will never get this idea through the UN after the mission creep over Libya, so the US and their associated lapdogs will have to go it alone. They also need to make up their mind quickly, recent government gains are pushing the jihadis closer to defeat.

TTFN

Ronald Reagan 10th Jul 2013 12:42

Russian inquiry to UN: Rebels, not Army, behind Syria Aleppo sarin attack ? RT News

Ian Corrigible 10th Jul 2013 15:29

Syrian P-800 AShMs destroyed by Incognito State Reacting to Arms Embargo Limitations
 
Syria naval base blast points to Israeli raid


Asked about the Latakia blasts, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon told reporters: "We have set red lines in regards to our own interests, and we keep them. There is an attack here, an explosion there, various versions - in any event, in the Middle East it is usually we who are blamed for most."
I/C

Eclectic 10th Jul 2013 17:28

We are backing the wrong side.

Al-Qaida in Syria is most serious terrorist threat to UK, says report | World news | guardian.co.uk

Rosevidney1 10th Jul 2013 19:31

We have been backing the wrong side and the conflict is spreading to Lebanon as well as threatening stability elsewhere.

Lonewolf_50 10th Jul 2013 20:44


WASHINGTON — The United States should press Syria and Russia to enter into talks to end the Syrian civil war, including “targeted” strikes on Bashar al-Assad’s military forces, a White House ally said Tuesday. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, is calling for America and its allies to conduct “limited, targeted strikes at Assad’s apparatus of terror, including airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks and artillery.”
Senator, yer a freakin' idiot.

I'll suggest that Senator Levin's Jewish ancestry can be used as a political rhetorical point by Assad, Iran, and those fun loving folks of all sorts who believe that the recent attacks on the missile warehouse "seems to be from Israel" (who knows, at this point?) ... and thus part of a US/Zionist plot to do X evil thing in Syria for Y reason.

I'd say he's tone deaf to the politics of the region. He's also tone deaf to the politico military fusion.

Such strikes should be “coordinated with the actions of the Syrian opposition on the ground,” the Michigan Democrat said in a joint statement with fellow SASC member Angus King, I-Maine. “Such strikes could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, bring some relief to the embattled Syrian people, show we are serious,” said Levin and King.
He's reading talking points on doing a replay of Libya.

Senator, please learn this:

THERE IS NO COOKIE CUTTER! :ugh:

Would somebody please send him a clue? :mad:

smujsmith 10th Jul 2013 22:58

With great respect to all, I have no intent to offend anyone, but, I believe that we have a situation here where 8 pints Hague, Camoron and a few other rabid warmongers have decided that we need to get involved, militarily, in a civil war that is nothing to do with our country, offers no threat to our country and we can't afford it anyway. There is now evidence, and I see no reason why we should disbelieve Russian reports more than American reports, that the people we are supporting are actually the people lobbing the chemical sh1t around. As a taxpayer and voting citizen of this country, my vote would go to keeping well away from this quagmire of international disingenuity. Not that I will get that vote. Reading this thread I believe that many posters have the happy disposition of being able to say "I told you so" when it all goes tits up and Bill and "Roly Poly" Dave look stupid.

Smudge

thing 10th Jul 2013 23:11

+1 to the above. But Dave a rabid warmonger? I don't think he's a rabid anything; he just leans with the wind like the rest of them.

Lonewolf_50 11th Jul 2013 14:12

Points well made, smuj, and I think no few American tax payers feel as you do. As I noted a few weeks back, supporting Jordan and their effort to aid and deal with refugees ought to be the focus of American efforts in the area for two reasons:

It's a humanitarian mess that risks becoming worse
It's a condition that can potentially destabilize Jordan, who have been a decent ally for some time
It's a good way to show that Americans care about the people in the area. That message isn't always well made. Feeding weapons to rebels who are as likely to be allies of Al Q as not seems a poor long term strategy.

The US has for a variety of "realist" reasons put up with despots of various sorts and quality for decades. Why Assad is especially unworthy to be worked with needs a bit better explanation to me, given some of the thugs we've supported over the years to advance our larger interests. :p

Onceapilot 11th Jul 2013 14:26

I found a possible explaination for my question at post number 1.
Debacle:
An event or enterprise that ends suddenly and disastrously, often with humiliating consequences.

OAP

Eclectic 12th Jul 2013 13:04

Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front.
So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight.
This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won!
The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship.

This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely.
Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win.
Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters.

The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose.

Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit.

Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference. Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary.

A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain.

Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity.

Lonewolf_50 12th Jul 2013 14:13


Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front.
Got a source for that? I'd be interested to see a bit more.

So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight.
Good news for Assad, I think. :p

This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won!
It may also mean that the civil war has grown before the revolution was lost, by Assad. ;)

The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship.
Is it really that simple?

This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely. Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win.
Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters.
Not so sure about that. I'd guess alliances remain fluid, on the ground.

The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose.
I don't think that sale will be made. Saudis and Qatar have no reason to go along with that.

Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit.
Likely.

Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference.
Might do, but maybe this time the US will do its best not to advertise that. The ability of people in Washington to keep their pie holes shut is staggeringly low. :mad: I don't think any drone strikes would target Assad or his forces. Why? The nutters are a bigger problem than he is, long term, and keeping the Russians from getting too pissed off is an important political consideration.

Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary.
Not sure you are right about that.

A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain.
Agree, but I don't think a no fly zone will be a chosen course of action.

Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity.
Probably right. They look out for themselves.

Eclectic 12th Jul 2013 14:21

Lonewolf. Here is the simple BBC reference you want: BBC News - Key Free Syria Army rebel 'killed by Islamist group'

More nuanced: Al-Qaeda Tries to Control Areas Liberated by Free Syrian Army - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East

Lonewolf_50 12th Jul 2013 14:44

Good stuff, thanks.


Kamal Hamami was in charge of a key brigade within the Free Syrian Army (FSA). He is believed to have met members of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in the port city of Latakia to inform them of a
planned offensive in the area, before being ambushed and shot dead.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A year ago the jihadis were still operating almost underground in Syria. Now they are powerful and important players, in some places running whole towns, where they impose Sharia law.
"This is a disaster for us, a disaster for the revolution," a female
opposition activist told me. She was complaining about Islamist gunmen telling her not to smoke, to cover her head, and to leave meetings where she was the only woman.

The jihadis had grown in popularity because of corruption and infighting among the FSA. The moral clarity of the early days of the uprising has been lost. Then, people wanted to defend themselves against overwhelming and brutal force - and ultimately to replace a corrupt, one-party dictatorship. Now the revolution itself has become corrupt and, in rebel-held areas, people fear a different kind of tyranny: crime, kidnapping, gangsterism.
==

Tunisi ordered all FSA members in his area of control to declare their allegiance to ISI and to hand over their weapons. FSA intelligence has learned that ISI is sending weapons to Iraq. According to security
sources, Iran has penetrated al-Qaeda since 2004 and has used it to further Iranian goals in Iraq, and today in Syria
.

An Iraqi security official said to Azzaman that al-Qaeda is doing in Syria what it did in Iraq: killing anyone who refuses to surrender his weapons and swear allegiance. ISI has killed many fighters that were fighting US troops in Iraq. The source said that ISI is helping the Syrian regime, either with or without coordination, by killing armed oppositionists in Syria.
The plot sickens ...

Eclectic 13th Jul 2013 16:31

Confirmation that there are now three sides: Syrian rebels and al-Qaeda-linked fighters battling each other at key checkpoint in Aleppo - Washington Times

But the extremist nutters have fallen out with each other! ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) and al Nusra are the two main nutter salafist groups. ISIS think al Nusra aren't extreme enough. And al Nusra think that ISIS are too extreme. Al Nusra?s Syria Strategy; Update: FSA declares war on ISIS ? 2.0: The Blogmocracy

So we are on the very verge of a four way war.

There are other factions on the ground including Hezbollah, the Kurds, Christians and Druze. All armed and fighting. Alliances are constantly shifting, depending on many factors including who has the most money/arms. Soldiers often switch groups. Large numbers of fighters have arrived from Iraq, some fighting on the Sunni side and some on the Shia side. Afghani fighters are also arriving now they have beaten the UK/USA in their own country. Messy doesn't even begin to describe what is happening.

Israel is the biggest factor. They are a regional superpower and are already engaged in a undeclared war with Iran. Assad and Hezbollah are both Iranian clients so Israel wants them both beaten. The big car bomb in a Hezbollah district in the Lebanon this week looked like Mossad was involved. Creating trouble between them and the Sunnis. And there have been repeated Israeli air strikes against Gucci kit.

In the diplomatic world it appears that the USA and Russia are getting much closer (despite Snowden). They both have a huge vested interest in acting against islamic extremists.

Interesting times.

Lonewolf_50 15th Jul 2013 14:25


So we are on the very verge of a four way war.
It's already in progress.

Large numbers of fighters have arrived from Iraq, some fighting on the Sunni side and some on the Shia side.
Good. Payback from when it was a flow in the other direction. Assad turned a blind eye to his porous border for years ... :mad:

Israel is the biggest factor.
No, they aren't. Biggest factor is Iran, followed by Saudi and the other crowned heads in the Gulf. Follow The Money.

They are a regional superpower and are already engaged in a undeclared war with Iran.
They are no superpower. Words have meanings.
They are a regional power. (And one not to be taken lightly, of course).

The big car bomb in a Hezbollah district in the Lebanon this week looked like Mossad was involved.
I'll need more than an assertion to buy that. One of many parties who don't care for Hezbollah.

And there have been repeated Israeli air strikes against Gucci kit.
Of course there have. The Israelis have been doing that for some years.

In the diplomatic world it appears that the USA and Russia are getting much closer (despite Snowden). They both have a huge vested interest in acting against islamic extremists.
I hope so, but I wonder sometimes if the meeting of the minds will ever take place. Agree with the bold part, but I wonder if our President actually lshares my sentiments.

Interesting times.
Indeed.


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