NATO vs Russia
“The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security? And vice versa, what contribution are we willing to make? When it comes to peace and freedom in Europe, we must not shy away from these difficult questions.”…..
Practical difficulty may be that UK doesn't have Aircraft deployed nuclear bombs/missiles and the French nuclear bombs won't be easy/possible to integrate into F-35. Either Countries buy Rafale or they just get 'assurances' by France/UK for a financial contribution. It is a bit sad that these thoughts have to be intensified but looking at the late statements of that guy in the current situation it would be a big risk not to prepare for such a possible scenario. Russia will only respect if they have to fear complete and terminal destruction.
On the conventional side if Poland and to some extent Germany stick to the Up- Arming and Ammunition production plans I'm not so concerned. But the European Nuke stick needs to get way bigger. I don't understand Stoltenberg's reluctance on that topic. The message from Captain Orange was clear: If you nuke Europe, we won't nuke you.
Last edited by henra; 16th Feb 2024 at 09:55.
I think in case that Orange guy should get the opportunity to enter the Throne again (and consequently possibly leaving NATO or at least dropping from commitments) Europe will have to seriously rethink it's Geostrategic approach. Including a significant increase in Nuclear Warheads and Carriers. MAD will have to be assured from UK + FR (+ possible nuclear sharing of their assets by other European Countries). And: Yes the costs for this cannot be taken by UK and FR alone. I would asumme something in the Ballpark 1000 major nuclear warheads would be a good target. Mainly strategic Nuclear weapons. For tactical ones I see only limited use. A handful of them should sufficient. Once the 10th tactical nuke has been fired it's anyway time for the final. They don't have a real military pupose any more. There will be no (and as we now learned never really have been) 30.000 Modern Tanks rolling through a narrow western Germany and needing immediate stopping.
Practical difficulty may be that UK doesn't have Aircraft deployed nuclear bombs/missiles and the French nuclear bombs won't be easy/possible to integrate into F-35. Either Countries buy Rafale or they just get 'assurances' by France/UK for a financial contribution. It is a bit sad that these thoughts have to be intensified but looking at the late statements of that guy in the current situation it would be a big risk not to prepare for such a possible scenario. Russia will only respect if they have to fear complete and terminal destruction.
On the conventional side if Poland and to some extent Germany stick to the Up- Arming and Ammunition production plans I'm not so concerned. But the European Nuke stick needs to get way bigger. I don't understand Stoltenberg's reluctance on that topic. The message from Captain Orange was clear: If you nuke Europe, we won't nuke you.
Practical difficulty may be that UK doesn't have Aircraft deployed nuclear bombs/missiles and the French nuclear bombs won't be easy/possible to integrate into F-35. Either Countries buy Rafale or they just get 'assurances' by France/UK for a financial contribution. It is a bit sad that these thoughts have to be intensified but looking at the late statements of that guy in the current situation it would be a big risk not to prepare for such a possible scenario. Russia will only respect if they have to fear complete and terminal destruction.
On the conventional side if Poland and to some extent Germany stick to the Up- Arming and Ammunition production plans I'm not so concerned. But the European Nuke stick needs to get way bigger. I don't understand Stoltenberg's reluctance on that topic. The message from Captain Orange was clear: If you nuke Europe, we won't nuke you.
1. Joe B loses, Captain Orange wins.
2. In January he takes over. Makes noises about reconsidering/withdrawing from NATO. (Note: this past year Congress passed a law against unilateral withdrawal by the White House).
3. In ten to eleven months, what can be accomplished?
4. I have a surprise answer for you that is probably achievable:
Dear Europe:
Every NATO nation (save perhaps Iceland, and never mind Hungary, they've chosen to be a spoiler) can demonstrate a budgetary shift to meet the agreed goals, or exceed them (as some of our allies already have done) and basically call his bluff at the political level.
OK, we've done as you have asked, let's get back to business. Oh, by the way, the real estate where your people and air bases are sitting is quite valuable in terms of location. You are a long time real estate guy, you get location. Let's get down to brass tacks and make sure we still have a deal ...
Learn how to speak to him in his language. Not sure how that will work, but it's a possible path forward that isn't simply sneering at him to his face because you don't like him.
(Even though he provides ample reason for that dislike). Our country put up with and dealt with a variety of distasteful folks (Ferdinand Marcos comes to mind, as does Preve Musharraf in Pakistan) in order to achieve a particular goal.
Remember, he thinks it's all about him. Use that to your advantage. Work that angle.
Is that the easy button? No. But it might work.
5. Be prepared for that to not work, and do as henra suggests: fall in on France's independent deterrent and live with the fact that France now becomes more important. This will please the French to no end.
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As a European I'm absolutely not keen on totally depending on France (I understood and fully share your view on how France would take this). But if the choice is France or nothing, France suddenly looks like a brilliant idea.
The problem with that is that deterrence depends on credibility. As soon as Captain Orange comes into Office and seeds serious doubts about his willingness to press the button (and I repeat: his putting of pressure on NATO members to pay their dues is fully OK for me but he conveys a different message - 2% or not I generally don't give sh*t about you being taken over by Russia), deterrence is immediately gone.
As a European I'm absolutely not keen on totally depending on France (I understood and fully share your view on how France would take this). But if the choice is France or nothing, France suddenly looks like a brilliant idea.
As a European I'm absolutely not keen on totally depending on France (I understood and fully share your view on how France would take this). But if the choice is France or nothing, France suddenly looks like a brilliant idea.
If the US were going to leave NATO, the time to dissolve the alliance was in about 1993, before NATO decided to
(1) do out of area operations, beginning with former Yugoslavia
(2) get bigger and more unwieldy.
The decision for NATO to keep on going, and to eventually keep on growing was (IMO at the time) an application of the sunk cost fallacy.
But as it turns out, that's what the 16 nations all decided to do together, so here we are.
80 years after Nazi Germany collapse, it's about time that another European country (yes, even Germany) builds its own independent nuclear deterrence. France should be pleased to help. Not sure many would apply, though.
Oops, too late.
Knowing Germany first hand I can't really imagine this being supported by the public (and thus politics). At least not yet. That said If Germany was heading in this direction a better choice might be going with the UK. In Defence matters I see generally better compatibility with UK than with France -especially now that we are back to territorial defence in Europe. To put it bluntly: France is a Diva. And it is still more interested in its global footprint. Plus we still cannot rule out that the next French president might be Marine Le Pen.
We cannot rule out either that the next US president might be Donald Trump, and then the key word would be independent. However that doesn't matter so much as 4 or 5 years go by quickly in such an endeavour.
And I hinted at Germany (which could afford it but has no political will), but other countries (i.e. Poland) might show the will, but would need serious financial assistance...
And I hinted at Germany (which could afford it but has no political will), but other countries (i.e. Poland) might show the will, but would need serious financial assistance...
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That rather mises the point and overlooks the potential seriousness of the situation. You can always dislike the person in charge (even sometimes when you voted for them), but generally they'd have the country's best interests at heart whether or not you agreed with the policies being implemented.
America was founded because they rejected being subjects of a monarchy, yet now a significant portion of the population seem to want exactly that
America was founded because they rejected being subjects of a monarchy, yet now a significant portion of the population seem to want exactly that
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
I know there is no current mechanism to expel anyone from NATO - but there have to be methods of limiting access to critical intelligence and strategic documents….
https://kyivindependent.com/china-of...w-enforcement/
China offers backing to Hungary in security matters, law enforcement
China has offered long-term support to Budapest in the security field, expanding mutual ties beyond economic cooperation, Reuters reported on Feb. 19 after Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong's visit to Hungary.
Wang met Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Feb. 16 as the two countries aim to deepen their friendship and "strengthen communication and coordination in international and regional affairs," the Chinese state-owned news agency Xinhua said.
Under Orban, Hungary has been fostering close ties with authoritarian regimes like China or Russia, much to the dismay of its EU and NATO partners.
Wang reportedly said he hopes to open a new level of cooperation with the Central European country in areas such as combating terrorism and transnational crimes.
These efforts should also include security capacity building under China's Belt and Road Initiative, Reuters said.
During his stay in Hungary, Wang signed documents on law enforcement and security cooperation with Hungarian Interior Minister Sandor Pinter, according to Reuters.
A security pact between Hungary and China is likely to further strain Budapest's relationship with Western countries.
Orban has repeatedly undermined Western consensus on supporting Ukraine and countering Russia, delaying aid and sanctions. Hungary is also the last country that has not yet ratified Sweden's accession to NATO.
In turn, Russia has been building a tight partnership with China. While not providing direct military support, Beijing has continued deepening economic cooperation, refused to denounce Russia's aggression, and helped the country counter Western sanctions.…
https://kyivindependent.com/china-of...w-enforcement/
China offers backing to Hungary in security matters, law enforcement
China has offered long-term support to Budapest in the security field, expanding mutual ties beyond economic cooperation, Reuters reported on Feb. 19 after Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong's visit to Hungary.
Wang met Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Feb. 16 as the two countries aim to deepen their friendship and "strengthen communication and coordination in international and regional affairs," the Chinese state-owned news agency Xinhua said.
Under Orban, Hungary has been fostering close ties with authoritarian regimes like China or Russia, much to the dismay of its EU and NATO partners.
Wang reportedly said he hopes to open a new level of cooperation with the Central European country in areas such as combating terrorism and transnational crimes.
These efforts should also include security capacity building under China's Belt and Road Initiative, Reuters said.
During his stay in Hungary, Wang signed documents on law enforcement and security cooperation with Hungarian Interior Minister Sandor Pinter, according to Reuters.
A security pact between Hungary and China is likely to further strain Budapest's relationship with Western countries.
Orban has repeatedly undermined Western consensus on supporting Ukraine and countering Russia, delaying aid and sanctions. Hungary is also the last country that has not yet ratified Sweden's accession to NATO.
In turn, Russia has been building a tight partnership with China. While not providing direct military support, Beijing has continued deepening economic cooperation, refused to denounce Russia's aggression, and helped the country counter Western sanctions.…
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Russia issues threats against Norway over “sovereignty issues” in Svalbard
Russian Deputy PM Yuri Trutnev compares the situation there for Russians with Ukraine: “Today, our warriors are spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country & the right to speak Russian”.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/20...-be-challenged
The Russian deputy prime minister in charge of Far Eastern and Arctic affairs on the 13th of February sent a thinly veiled threat to Norway for its management of the Svalbard archipelago.
In a meeting in the so-called Government Commission on the Protection of Russian Presence at Spitsbergen, Trutnev signalled that Russian rights in the Norwegian archipelago are under pressure. “None of the rights and benefits acquired by Russia can be reduced or infringed. We do not have the right to move even a single step backwards,” he underlined in an opening remark.
With reference to the war in Ukraine, he added that “warriors are today spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country and the rights of people to speak the Russian language.”
As if comparing the situation in Svalbard with Eastern Ukraine, the deputy PM argued that it is all a question of ‘sovereignty.’ “I think that we should address the work here in Government the same way, that the work here is also a fight for our sovereignty, a fight for the rights of Russia and Russians,” he told the Commission members.
Trutnev also slashed the role of international cooperation. “I believe that everyone present understands well that now is not the best time for development of international cooperation. Probably, humankind is entering a phase of deepened conflict.”
In the meeting were more than 20 of the member of the commission, among them Ildar Neverov, leader of state-owned company Arktikugol.
In May 2023, Neverov and his Arktikugol together with the local Russian General Consulate, organised militaristic parades in the settlements of Barentsburg and Pyramiden. In Pyramiden, the parade included a tractor and excavator decorated with the flag of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.
Later that same year, Neverov invited Bishop Iakov, the hardline Russian churchman, and set up a major Orthodox cross in the hill over Pyramiden without requesting permission from Norwegian authorities.
Trust Arktikugol is the company that operates the local coal mine in Barentsburg and manages the settlement and its about 400 inhabitants.
Since he was appointed head of Trust Arktikugol in 2022, Neverov has significantly stirred relations with Norway and its Svalbard Governor. The more assertive approach of Neverov and his team coincided with transfer of the Trust Arktikugol to the Ministry of the Far East and Arctic…….
It is far from the first time that Russia threatens Norway over its Svalbard policy. The far northern archipelago has repeatedly been in the spotlight of Moscow hardliners and in connection with the 100-year’s anniversary of the Svalbard Treaty in 2020, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted that Oslo engages in “bilateral consultations” over the management of the islands……
Norway has full sovereignty over the archipelago in accordance with the Svalbard Treaty of 1920, and individuals and companies from signatory states are allowed to engage in economic activity. Russians have since the 1930s run coal mines in the area.
The meeting in the Russian Spitsbergen Commission took place only few days after Trutnev welcomed to his office a group of warriors that had fought in Ukraine. Among the men were several members of Spetsnaz intelligence units.
Reportedly, among the men were employees of the Ministry of the Far East and Arctic that had volunteered for fighting on the occupied lands.
“We will continue to use their experience that now not only includes civilian and military service, but also real battle experiences, for the development of the Far East and Arctic,” Minister of the Arctic Aleksei Chekunkov said.
Russian Deputy PM Yuri Trutnev compares the situation there for Russians with Ukraine: “Today, our warriors are spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country & the right to speak Russian”.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/20...-be-challenged
The Russian deputy prime minister in charge of Far Eastern and Arctic affairs on the 13th of February sent a thinly veiled threat to Norway for its management of the Svalbard archipelago.
In a meeting in the so-called Government Commission on the Protection of Russian Presence at Spitsbergen, Trutnev signalled that Russian rights in the Norwegian archipelago are under pressure. “None of the rights and benefits acquired by Russia can be reduced or infringed. We do not have the right to move even a single step backwards,” he underlined in an opening remark.
With reference to the war in Ukraine, he added that “warriors are today spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country and the rights of people to speak the Russian language.”
As if comparing the situation in Svalbard with Eastern Ukraine, the deputy PM argued that it is all a question of ‘sovereignty.’ “I think that we should address the work here in Government the same way, that the work here is also a fight for our sovereignty, a fight for the rights of Russia and Russians,” he told the Commission members.
Trutnev also slashed the role of international cooperation. “I believe that everyone present understands well that now is not the best time for development of international cooperation. Probably, humankind is entering a phase of deepened conflict.”
In the meeting were more than 20 of the member of the commission, among them Ildar Neverov, leader of state-owned company Arktikugol.
In May 2023, Neverov and his Arktikugol together with the local Russian General Consulate, organised militaristic parades in the settlements of Barentsburg and Pyramiden. In Pyramiden, the parade included a tractor and excavator decorated with the flag of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.
Later that same year, Neverov invited Bishop Iakov, the hardline Russian churchman, and set up a major Orthodox cross in the hill over Pyramiden without requesting permission from Norwegian authorities.
Trust Arktikugol is the company that operates the local coal mine in Barentsburg and manages the settlement and its about 400 inhabitants.
Since he was appointed head of Trust Arktikugol in 2022, Neverov has significantly stirred relations with Norway and its Svalbard Governor. The more assertive approach of Neverov and his team coincided with transfer of the Trust Arktikugol to the Ministry of the Far East and Arctic…….
It is far from the first time that Russia threatens Norway over its Svalbard policy. The far northern archipelago has repeatedly been in the spotlight of Moscow hardliners and in connection with the 100-year’s anniversary of the Svalbard Treaty in 2020, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted that Oslo engages in “bilateral consultations” over the management of the islands……
Norway has full sovereignty over the archipelago in accordance with the Svalbard Treaty of 1920, and individuals and companies from signatory states are allowed to engage in economic activity. Russians have since the 1930s run coal mines in the area.
The meeting in the Russian Spitsbergen Commission took place only few days after Trutnev welcomed to his office a group of warriors that had fought in Ukraine. Among the men were several members of Spetsnaz intelligence units.
Reportedly, among the men were employees of the Ministry of the Far East and Arctic that had volunteered for fighting on the occupied lands.
“We will continue to use their experience that now not only includes civilian and military service, but also real battle experiences, for the development of the Far East and Arctic,” Minister of the Arctic Aleksei Chekunkov said.
no-one should fight and die over Svalbard
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
no-one should fight and die over Svalbard
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
A British RC-135 'Rivet Joint', a dedicated electronic surveillance aircraft, has conducted a patrol along the borders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland. The UK undertakes such flights in order to gather intelligence about Russian forces.
Ice free routes - people have been talking about those all my life - its as the same as fusion power stations - always " a few years away"
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.politico.eu/article/trum...ear-nightmare/
Trump triggers Germany’s nuclear nightmare
German leaders fear confronting Putin’s menace without the protection of America’s nuclear umbrella.
Trump triggers Germany’s nuclear nightmare
German leaders fear confronting Putin’s menace without the protection of America’s nuclear umbrella.
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MAD has been not quite the scenario for about a generation. They are just now waking up to this, apparently.
Nuclear is the current deterrence concept. Germany even bought new F-35s and the US just modernized and upgraded the B61 to continue.