Originally Posted by
henra
I think in case that Orange guy should get the opportunity to enter the Throne again (and consequently possibly leaving NATO or at least dropping from commitments) Europe will have to seriously rethink it's Geostrategic approach. Including a significant increase in Nuclear Warheads and Carriers. MAD will have to be assured from UK + FR (+ possible nuclear sharing of their assets by other European Countries). And: Yes the costs for this cannot be taken by UK and FR alone. I would asumme something in the Ballpark 1000 major nuclear warheads would be a good target. Mainly strategic Nuclear weapons. For tactical ones I see only limited use. A handful of them should sufficient. Once the 10th tactical nuke has been fired it's anyway time for the final. They don't have a real military pupose any more. There will be no (and as we now learned never really have been) 30.000 Modern Tanks rolling through a narrow western Germany and needing immediate stopping.
Practical difficulty may be that UK doesn't have Aircraft deployed nuclear bombs/missiles and the French nuclear bombs won't be easy/possible to integrate into F-35. Either Countries buy Rafale or they just get 'assurances' by France/UK for a financial contribution. It is a bit sad that these thoughts have to be intensified but looking at the late statements of that guy in the current situation it would be a big risk not to prepare for such a possible scenario. Russia will only respect if they have to fear complete and terminal destruction.
On the conventional side if Poland and to some extent Germany stick to the Up- Arming and Ammunition production plans I'm not so concerned. But the European Nuke stick needs to get way bigger. I don't understand Stoltenberg's reluctance on that topic. The message from Captain Orange was clear: If you nuke Europe, we won't nuke you.
OK, take the worst case scenario.
1. Joe B loses, Captain Orange wins.
2. In January he takes over. Makes noises about reconsidering/withdrawing from NATO. (Note: this past year Congress passed a law against unilateral withdrawal by the White House).
3. In ten to eleven months, what can be accomplished?
4. I have a surprise answer for you that is probably achievable:
Dear Europe:
Every NATO nation (save perhaps Iceland, and never mind Hungary, they've chosen to be a spoiler) can demonstrate a budgetary shift to meet the agreed goals, or exceed them (as some of our allies already have done) and basically call his bluff at the political level.
OK, we've done as you have asked, let's get back to business. Oh, by the way, the real estate where your people and air bases are sitting is quite valuable in terms of location. You are a long time real estate guy, you get location. Let's get down to brass tacks and make sure we still have a deal ...
Learn how to speak to him in his language. Not sure how that will work, but it's a possible path forward that isn't simply sneering at him to his face because you don't like him.
(Even though he provides ample reason for that dislike). Our country put up with and dealt with a variety of distasteful folks (Ferdinand Marcos comes to mind, as does Preve Musharraf in Pakistan) in order to achieve a particular goal.
Remember,
he thinks it's all about him. Use that to your advantage. Work that angle.
Is that the easy button? No. But it might work.
5. Be prepared for that to not work, and do as henra suggests: fall in on France's independent deterrent and live with the fact that France now becomes more important. This will please the French to no end.