NATO vs Russia
 

They keep on saying they’re already at war with the West - perhaps we should start listening?



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ears-g8rbpwr67

Nato has three years to prepare for Russian attack, warns Poland

The countries on Nato’s eastern flank have as little as three years to prepare for the possibility of a Russian attack, the head of a Polish national security agency said.

As Ukraine suffered a series of setbacks in its defensive war against Russia, and Europe and the United States have struggled to secure their next packages of military aid to Kyiv, attention is turning to the threat the Kremlin will pose to Nato if the conflict becomes “frozen”.

In a stark report, one leading German think tank has argued that the military alliance must be ready to fend off a Russian offensive within six to ten years. However, Jacek Siewiera, the chief of Poland’s National Security Bureau and a minister in President Duda’s chancellery, said the paper probably understated the urgency of the situation.

“Unfortunately this analysis is consistent with studies drawn up in the US,” he told Nasz Dziennik, a Polish Catholic newspaper. “But in my opinion the time frame presented by the German analysts is too optimistic. If we want to avoid war, the Nato countries on the eastern flank should adopt a shorter, three-year time horizon to prepare for confrontation.”

Siewiera added: “This is the time window when we have to create a capability on the eastern flank that would provide a clear signal deterring aggression. The arms industry in Russia is working in three shifts [each day] and can rebuild its resources within the next three years.”

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began last February, President Putin and several senior figures in his regime have alluded to possible long-term designs on Nato’s eastern-most member states.

There is particular concern about the three Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — which successive Russian governments since the early 18th century have identified as part of Moscow’s sphere of influence and “near abroad”.

In May Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said the regime would create new bases and 12 new “units or divisions” in its Western Military District next door to Nato’s eastern flank in response to Finland and Sweden’s moves to join the alliance. Those plans have been deferred by Ukraine’s resistance for the foreseeable future, with the vast bulk of Russia’s fighting strength remaining bogged down in a war of attrition.

However, many analysts and Nato leaders worry that the alliance has only a limited period of time to bolster its defences as Russia scales up its military industry and puts in place a mobilisation machine that could sustain or expand troop numbers for years to come.

In an impassioned speech at the Körber-Stiftung’s annual foreign policy conference in Berlin last week Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, said Russia was already at war with the West and on course to regenerate its military capacity next to Nato’s borders.

This month Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz of the German Council on Foreign Relations think tank wrote in a much-discussed report that the alliance was now in a “race against time” to fend off a Russian attack that could come within six years….

​​​​​​​Putin has issued a direct threat to Latvia, warning of a reciprocal response if the “mistreatment” of the Russian-speaking population in the country continues.

"I don't know the current percentage, but in Latvia, I believe, there was 40% of Russian-speaking population. If they continue such a policy towards people who wanted to live in that country, worked, created goods for that country, and if they are treated like pigs , then they will face such pig-like treatment within their own country," Putin stated during a conversation with members of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights.

At greatest risk would seem to be the three Baltic Republics.

Why do Russian-speaking communities, usually in the minority, become ticking timebombs, unable to assimilate peacefully within their adopted countries?

maybe they want to keep speaking their own language and have their old ways - lots of people in the USA and UK like that - or S Africa when you think about it

Yes, but Russia uses the situation everywhere to drive in a wedge, take their side, and expand their influence in order to out the majority and justify further land grabs. Rinse and repeat.

There is another culture that is trying to do the same it would appear. Its startling that governments for the last 20+ years believed trade would keep the world peaceful.
This brings greed and that greed creates more conflict.
We really need to be thinking about rearming properly and treating our service personnel like the guardians they are, not some public sector menial civil servant.
Currently the West is in the period of the 1930s, the writing is on the wall.
Instead of addressing the situation politics and the vocal idiots are dividing our countries and communities.
People are starting to harden their views towards the minority tail wagging the dog as they see the existential threat from Russia, China and Islamic Fundamentalism.
Its a pity the politicians are still trying to decide what a woman is, taking the knee and what pronouns are important to men with mental health issues.
I am more concerned that in 10 years my kids are having to wear a uniform to defend the real values of the West.

Because they are not adopted countries, redrawing borders doesn’t create a country of peace and tranquility. This is historic, and is never going to go away until diplomats and countries learn how to work things out.

Georgia generously allowed a huge number of fleeing Russians over their borders last year, potentially setting the scene for increased ethnic role reversal and land/enclave loss scenarios.

I am fairly ignorant in these matters but, whenever I read these forecasts by military strategists, they never seem to refer to any economic restraints which may stand in the way of Russia's further ambitions. All the indications are that Russia will be short of cash and educated men. The latter they have either sent to their deaths on the battle field or encouraged them to leave for less hazardous homes. This must surely limit the speed at which they can rebuild their military power to take on NATO and replacing these men will take many years. Of course, on present form, it looks like Vlad would not recognise these limitations.

Never going to happen. Russia is a busted flush - they're never going to trouble the West militarily. Given their laboured efforts in Ukraine, I think we can all sleep easy.

I completely understand your post but I beg to differ. IMHO Russia has learned 2 things in this war - they have learned that they are not as good as they thought they were, and they have also learned that the West's support for an ally is not as solid they thought - deliverises of weappns and equipment are sporadic at best. They know they can wait this out and the West will fold. They are prepared to rearm and fight a war of attrition - is the USA? (No...in case you were wondering)
Russia see's that despite the billions ploughed into the Ukraine war by the West, they are not losing. They see Western nations like the USA openly debating whether to support Ukraine any further. They see Trump, who is an openly communist Russian puppet, perhaps as the next President, and they are laughing all the way to Kiev. I cannot conceive of how utterly deranged someone needs to be to support Trump, but it is America, the land of Morons, so no surprise really...

The USA will probably elect Trump., and he will hand Ukraine to Putin. Putin will then go for the Baltic states, and Trump will let him.

I grew up in the USA and I loved the place, but it is now a weak vassal to Russia and China and if Trump becomes President it will become a slave.

1877

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....97c43f5bbd.jpg




2018

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0ab56ee49f.jpg




2024 … ?

Russia is massively bogged down in Ukraine despite the fact that Western support for Ukraine is limited to funds and equipment and the use of that equipment is subject to significant limitations in terms of its use beyond the immediate theatre of conflict.

If they touch a NATO member western support will not be limited. NATO airpower and stand-off weaponry will be used to its full extent and Russian conventional forces will be overwhelmed.

This does not make me feel relaxed since the only option open to Russia at that point will be a bucket of sunshine.

I'd like to think that Putin and his cronies are not nuts enough to go down the route of attacking a NATO member but I really fear that they might be.

It is time for the west to nail its colours to the mast and end its indifference to the situation in Ukraine. This needs to stop in Ukraine or it will end up needing to be dealt with in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania or Poland.

Let's hope the next US presidential election does not lead to a US retreat from Europe.

China in the background stoking the fire too.....supplying russia surreptitiously and smiling innocently at the west.

Makes perfect sense to them - keeps much of American attention and forces elsewhere, uses up lost of Western kit , keeps the Russians in their place and beholden to China - and it doesn't cost them a single dollar or a single life

what's not to like

I am sure the same was said of Germany between the wars - even after the Nazis had come power.

Anyway, back in October, The First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Ben Key RN, spoke at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as reported by USNI News here:

Key said the United Kingdom’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific “is a both/and, not an either/or” when it comes to its traditional emphasis on the North Atlantic and Europe. Even if the United States had to commit more naval forces to defend Taiwan, he cited the carrier cooperation agreement among the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain that “keeps balance” by deterring Russia’s naval ambitions.
---
The war, however, has not affected the Russian Navy’s submarine fleet. Likewise, Moscow’s strategic bomber force and nuclear missile force have not been affected by the war. Key also said the Russians have added five naval infantry brigades in recent years...

This is another thing worth reading:

‘We can do all of that’: Admiral says US can support Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan at same time - Stars and Stripes

WASHINGTON — The U.S. military can aid Taiwan along with Ukraine and Israel if the Indo-Pacific island came under attack from China, the Pentagon’s second highest-ranking officer said Monday.

“[They are] not necessarily the same things, so we are able to work our way through that,” Adm. Christopher Grady, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a discussion at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank that studies international affairs. “Is it challenging? Sure, but as [Defense] Secretary [Lloyd Austin] said, we have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.”

The United States has been providing billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion in early 2022 and recently began sending increased aid to Israel after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militants. The U.S. has said many times that it would also provide needed support to Taiwan if it was attacked or invaded by China, which considers the island a breakaway Chinese territory.

Giving aid to two countries involved in conflicts has already raised the question whether the support could put a strain on U.S. military capabilities and readiness. Some U.S. military leaders have said China could move on Taiwan as soon as 2027.

“According to some observers, Taiwan’s civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan’s military struggles to recruit, retain and train personnel,” according to a report in September by the Congressional Research Service, a public policy research institute. “Some U.S. officials [have] publicly cited specific years in the mid-2020s as possible target dates for a [Chinese] attack on Taiwan, sparking alarm and reinvigorating debates among experts and policymakers about how to allocate limited time and resources to shore up Taiwan’s resilience.”

Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro said earlier in the year that it might be “challenging” to keep U.S. and Ukraine troops armed if the defense industry cannot maintain adequate production of equipment and weapons. He later clarified his remark and said he fully expected industry production to keep up. Grady said Monday that giving aid to three allies can be done...

Edward Hunter Christie is a Senior Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He served as a NATO official from 2014 to 2020


We're on the verge of being check-mated by just one man, namely Vladimir Putin.

He overreached so much, we could've wrecked him, his regime, his expeditionary forces, and to some extent even his country. But he could count on his cattle-like population to just obey, obey, obey.

And he could count on decades of chosen weakness on the part of European leaders to simultaneously give him tons of money and power by buying his oil and gas and refuse to have any serious military strength.

And he could count on the West's nuclear policy "experts" to be fully predictable little meat robots - all he had to do was imply a few threats and the seed of fear was planted, guaranteeing that no American troops, and no European troops, would stand in his way.

And he knew he could count on, especially, Biden, Scholz, and Macron being ultimately too afraid to directly stop him.

Once the key Western states were on an intermediate trajectory of helping Ukraine somewhat, but not too much, and with any strong actions completely off the table, he then only needed to gradually erode the resolve of the Western world and to create distractions and diversions elsewhere.

In that, he could count on the incredible brittleness of American democracy, where you can brainwash tens of millions of voters just by buying some key influencers, which in turn gets you half of one of the two political parties to get legs of jelly in front of Moscow while they talk bombastically about everything but Moscow.

Sensing the weakness dish was close to ready, he did the same trick he'd done in 2015, when he'd seen he couldn't get more in Europe - open a 2nd front (at that time, Syria, and then our elections).

First, he's been tearing through the Sahel region with near-complete impunity, expelling France while America remained passive.

Then he tested the waters: what if Iran openly helps Russia to attack Ukraine? Can the war be broadened, or will the West smack Iran down?

We did nothing of any seriousness, and so the aid only continued - Iranian Shahed drones are raining down on Ukraine on a regular basis to this very day. And that also emboldened Iran within the Middle East.

Putin likely encouraged the Iranians and Hamas to attack Israel, but even if he didn't, it's clear that our failure to act against Iran made the Hamas attack against Israel more likely.

This opened a second front in the global confrontation of the revisionist states against the Western order, and a perfect excuse for weak-willed Republican politicians to pretend to be strong by supporting Israel while dropping Ukraine.

And it isn't over.

God knows what Putin is about to do to the oil markets, but he obviously visited KSA and UAE for that reason, and the Iranians visiting Moscow today can hardly be a coincidence - in addition to everything else they would wish to coordinate.

And where are we now?

US assistance to Ukraine is on course towards drying up and it cannot be fully replaced, even with massive efforts on the European side. Just as critically, longer-range weapons aren't being sent, F-16s aren't being sent.

And we also have unchecked obstacles to helping Ukraine coming from Turkey, from Hungary, from Slovakia, even from Poland. This is catastrophic, and it is pathetically weak and dishonourable, too.

There is much blame to go around. But more than that, the costs and the dishonour are disastrous.

Those who have the misfortune of being trapped within the Russian sphere of control will be crushed in a neo-Stalinist purge. The Middle East will continue in semi-controlled and costly chaos. China is emboldened and arming up fast.

Europe still hasn't properly woken up and can't handle its own neighbourhood.

​​​​​​​And America's prestige and place in the world are crumbling for all to see.

Don't think so. What do you think where the massive British armament initiative latest post Munich 1938 came from. I 'm sure they saw the writing on the wall. They were just not ready yet.

The US revived the draft in 1940 when they weren't even in the war yet (aside from a few sailors in the North Atlantic). The US Army held the Louisiana Maneuvers in the summer and fall of 1941, even though we were not in the war yet.
Someone saw the writing on the wall ...