NATO vs Russia
well Europe and a lot of the rest of the world had been in flames for over a year so it didn't need a genius to see what was might happen
Tho" Roosevelt, acutely aware of strong isolationist and non-interventionistsentiment, promised there would be no involvement in foreign wars if he were re-elected." so there was pressure to keep the head firmly in the sand though the campaign,
They clearly started preparation before the actual election date in Nov 1940 with the draft law in September 1940 but it took almost another year before they started those military exercises
Tho" Roosevelt, acutely aware of strong isolationist and non-interventionistsentiment, promised there would be no involvement in foreign wars if he were re-elected." so there was pressure to keep the head firmly in the sand though the campaign,
They clearly started preparation before the actual election date in Nov 1940 with the draft law in September 1940 but it took almost another year before they started those military exercises
A worrying and convincing post @ #18 - (not sure Orac, if you were quoting or commenting yourself?).
But the picture is very worrying - we might be seeing the beginning of World War 3.
I am not a conspiracy theorist...but..... Russia and China could be working together to defeat the West. China could have invented and engineered the Covid virus to weaken the West mentally and physically, (they might well have all had the antidote before the virus was released, and are just making up infection figures in their own countries). Russia and China could have meddled and influenced political elections in Europe and the USA, (and probably Brexit as well), the aim being to destabilise the West. China is flooding markets with goods, undercutting and reducing Western countries' own manufacturing capability - which could be an issue if the West needs to start making arms and war machines.
The UK armed forces currently seem to be concentrating more on gender issues and ethnic minorities, than actually recruiting the very best personnel - more evidence of political meddling behind the scenes from Russia and China ?
Apparently Finland have recently closed all their border crossings with Russia, because the influx of immigrants and asylum seekers from Somalia etc into Finland via its border with Russia has suddenly increased hugely, and this is known to be owing to Russian involvement.
The boat crossings of enormous numbers of immigrants into the UK are therefore probably also organised or at least heavily encouraged by the Russians, with the aim of destabilising the UK further, having already split the UK away from Europe. Other countries, such as The Netherlands and France are apparently also finding immigration to be causing big problems. As are Italy and Greece.
Immigration to the USA via Mexico could be engineered and/or encouraged too, to destabilise the USA.
Meanwhile, China is apparently placing military 'assets' on small uninhabited islands in the seas around Japan and Taiwan, as well as sabre rattling.
Then we have the provocation of Israel by Hamas, and the resulting war, sponsored no doubt by Iran.
America, and the UK - to mention just two countries - seem to have been vulnerable in recent years to the election of ineffectual or crazy Presidents/Prime Ministers. Has election meddling, via social media, been going on?
The UK armed forces and hardware assets are a fraction of their previous complement. Would we and NATO be able to prevent and defeat an invasion by Russia of the Shetland islands and the Faroe Islands ?
Putin has just announced that he will stand for a sixth term - and it is hard to believe that he will be defeated in the elections. He and his ego seem to want a big place in history, and starting a World War would certainly give him that.
Please tell me I am imagining all this and am just having a bad dream.
But the picture is very worrying - we might be seeing the beginning of World War 3.
I am not a conspiracy theorist...but..... Russia and China could be working together to defeat the West. China could have invented and engineered the Covid virus to weaken the West mentally and physically, (they might well have all had the antidote before the virus was released, and are just making up infection figures in their own countries). Russia and China could have meddled and influenced political elections in Europe and the USA, (and probably Brexit as well), the aim being to destabilise the West. China is flooding markets with goods, undercutting and reducing Western countries' own manufacturing capability - which could be an issue if the West needs to start making arms and war machines.
The UK armed forces currently seem to be concentrating more on gender issues and ethnic minorities, than actually recruiting the very best personnel - more evidence of political meddling behind the scenes from Russia and China ?
Apparently Finland have recently closed all their border crossings with Russia, because the influx of immigrants and asylum seekers from Somalia etc into Finland via its border with Russia has suddenly increased hugely, and this is known to be owing to Russian involvement.
The boat crossings of enormous numbers of immigrants into the UK are therefore probably also organised or at least heavily encouraged by the Russians, with the aim of destabilising the UK further, having already split the UK away from Europe. Other countries, such as The Netherlands and France are apparently also finding immigration to be causing big problems. As are Italy and Greece.
Immigration to the USA via Mexico could be engineered and/or encouraged too, to destabilise the USA.
Meanwhile, China is apparently placing military 'assets' on small uninhabited islands in the seas around Japan and Taiwan, as well as sabre rattling.
Then we have the provocation of Israel by Hamas, and the resulting war, sponsored no doubt by Iran.
America, and the UK - to mention just two countries - seem to have been vulnerable in recent years to the election of ineffectual or crazy Presidents/Prime Ministers. Has election meddling, via social media, been going on?
The UK armed forces and hardware assets are a fraction of their previous complement. Would we and NATO be able to prevent and defeat an invasion by Russia of the Shetland islands and the Faroe Islands ?
Putin has just announced that he will stand for a sixth term - and it is hard to believe that he will be defeated in the elections. He and his ego seem to want a big place in history, and starting a World War would certainly give him that.
Please tell me I am imagining all this and am just having a bad dream.
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Militarily could NATO defeat Russia? Yes, definitely.
Politically? Depends on the circumstance. If NATO was attacked directly possibly. Depends how many casualties the West can take. If NATO decided to attack Russia. No. Political loss.
Politically? Depends on the circumstance. If NATO was attacked directly possibly. Depends how many casualties the West can take. If NATO decided to attack Russia. No. Political loss.
Uplinker - it is a bad dream, don't worry.
Phew !
I really hope so.
(thanks for the clarification, Dave R, and thanks ORAC).
I really hope so.
(thanks for the clarification, Dave R, and thanks ORAC).
It pretty likely is less constructed and more the result of ongoing trends and problems plus individual considerations. Covid and the hasty retreat from Afghanistan plus political instabilities due to people in Western Countries becoming dissatisfied by Globalsiation (Loss of self esteem providing industry jobs to cheaper Countries + only small elites really profiting) plus overboarding Migration (>20% of the population in many Western Countries have a migration background of max 2 Generations) had seemingly opened a 'Window of opportunity' for Putin. For Xi this rather came too early. Putin has wakened up the West before he could create facts in Taiwan. Iran is free riding with Russia binding Western Ressources and is having huge difficulties at home which they urgently need to cover with an external foe.
Interesting news from Germany and Lithuania. Formalizing something they brought up during the summer.
About 30 years late... (the fact of deployment, not the location)
I wonder how the integrated air support bit (Germany has a combined arms doctrine) fold into this brigade.
A new agreement between Germany and Lithuania will lead to German troops' first permanent foreign deployment since World War II.
The announcement was made Monday in Lithuania, where Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas met with his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, to outline a multiyear "Roadmap Action Plan" involving approximately 4,800 permanently stationed German soldiers. Both officials called the move a historical moment not just for their nations but for NATO as well.German troops, including those with families, will be stationed in the Lithuanian cities of Kaunas and Vilnius beginning in 2024, with most troops deployed in 2025 and 2026 and full-operation capability expected by 2027. In turn, Lithuania has committed to providing all necessary civilian and military infrastructure.
Source: Germany Will Deploy Troops for First Time Since World War II (newsweek.com)
Source: Germany Will Deploy Troops for First Time Since World War II (newsweek.com)
The Armageddon Song series of books, Andy Farman, give a version of a Russia v NATO war in Europe, based on how we thought it would go during the Cold War. Given the performance of the Russian Army in Ukraine, I don't think we'd have too much to worry about. Apart from the fact that it would be over by Christmas, as we don't have the ammunition for it to last much longer.
https://www.goodreads.com/series/171...ageddon-s-song
https://www.goodreads.com/series/171...ageddon-s-song
Russian Front
I wonder how Russia will modify it's next generation of armoured vehicles now that it has (most likely) captured examples of most of the stuff we have given to Ukraine?
Western Front
Do we have the political creativity and money to fight a major war? The UK is already several trillion in the hole before we start.
I wonder how Russia will modify it's next generation of armoured vehicles now that it has (most likely) captured examples of most of the stuff we have given to Ukraine?
Western Front
Do we have the political creativity and money to fight a major war? The UK is already several trillion in the hole before we start.
Re NATO: Whilst I agree with the usual assessment that any actual invocation of Article 5 by NATO would result in the obliteration of much of Russia's military capabilities within a day (likely starting with the destruction of the Black Sea fleet within hours -- or even minutes -- of the start of hostilities), I place no credence in the notion that we (the "West") would have nothing to worry about. I believe it is dangerously naive to think that Russia would ever accept defeat without using nuclear weapons. And once that happens -- even if it starts with a small "tactical" nuke (hah!), we ALL will have much to worry about.
Last edited by grizzled; 19th Dec 2023 at 23:26.
We must make it totally clear that they will see the bright light as well if anything sinister should ever happen to NATO territory. It might become necessary to demonstrate this will in real life as they might test us, like dropping the soap intentionally. Just look at those drones near Constanta.
R.E.M. had a song about that.
Reading this thread I've almost filled in my conspiracy bingo card. Just need a bit of flat earth to get a full house.
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Vlad won´t openly attack a NATO country. However, he will try all the asymmetric destabilizing tricks available to him. If the West doesn´t get it´s **** together, it will be the end of the post WW2 order.
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I completely understand your post but I beg to differ. IMHO Russia has learned 2 things in this war - they have learned that they are not as good as they thought they were, and they have also learned that the West's support for an ally is not as solid they thought - deliverises of weappns and equipment are sporadic at best. They know they can wait this out and the West will fold. They are prepared to rearm and fight a war of attrition - is the USA? (No...in case you were wondering)
Russia see's that despite the billions ploughed into the Ukraine war by the West, they are not losing. They see Western nations like the USA openly debating whether to support Ukraine any further. They see Trump, who is an openly communist Russian puppet, perhaps as the next President, and they are laughing all the way to Kiev. I cannot conceive of how utterly deranged someone needs to be to support Trump, but it is America, the land of Morons, so no surprise really...
The USA will probably elect Trump., and he will hand Ukraine to Putin. Putin will then go for the Baltic states, and Trump will let him.
I grew up in the USA and I loved the place, but it is now a weak vassal to Russia and China and if Trump becomes President it will become a slave.
Russia see's that despite the billions ploughed into the Ukraine war by the West, they are not losing. They see Western nations like the USA openly debating whether to support Ukraine any further. They see Trump, who is an openly communist Russian puppet, perhaps as the next President, and they are laughing all the way to Kiev. I cannot conceive of how utterly deranged someone needs to be to support Trump, but it is America, the land of Morons, so no surprise really...
The USA will probably elect Trump., and he will hand Ukraine to Putin. Putin will then go for the Baltic states, and Trump will let him.
I grew up in the USA and I loved the place, but it is now a weak vassal to Russia and China and if Trump becomes President it will become a slave.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/20...eabed-threats/
Netherlands to boost North Sea surveillance to deter seabed threats
PARIS — The Netherlands plans to spend as much as €250 million (U.S. $274 million) on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities in the North Sea to protect the cables and pipelines that crisscross the seabed off its coast.
The Defence Ministry will mount cameras, radar systems and automatic identification system trackers on drilling platforms and offshore wind turbines, as well as buy satellite capacity to observe ship movements, Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren and State Defence Secretary Christophe van der Maat wrote in a Dec. 19 letter to lawmakers.
The Netherlands also plans to buy two vessels with underwater monitoring technology.
“This capability helps deter potential perpetrators of sabotage and espionage,” Ollongren and Van der Maat wrote. “Improving the protection of the vital infrastructure on the North Sea has the full attention of the cabinet.”
Seabed warfare has become a hot topic for European nations ever since last year’s attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. On the Dutch continental shelf, there are about 2,796 miles of pipeline and 3,728 miles of cable. The government considers offshore infrastructure essential to the Dutch economy and national security.
The current threats are primarily surface vessels carrying out “undesirable underwater activities,” according to the two officials. The government has assessed that there are presently no unmanned underwater vessels that can conduct sabotage operations in the Dutch-controlled area of the North Sea without the support of a surface vessel.
The ministry plans to buy commercial satellite capacity to track ship movements, including so-called dark vessels that turn off their automatic identification system transponders, until the Netherlands can build up its own satellite assets starting in 2027. The military will also monitor sea areas adjacent to the country’s area of responsibility in the North Sea to detect vessels that may pose a threat.
The costs of boosting the Dutch ISR capability in the North Sea will be between €50 million and €250 million, according to the letter.
The government in June announced a plan to develop its independent military satellite capacity through a constellation of satellites, within a spending bracket of €100 million to €250 million.
The Netherlands’ plan to acquire two “relatively simple” ships for a small crew would help monitor underwater activities, according to the ministers. Those ships will also serve as anti-air missile carriers for Dutch air defense frigates.….
Netherlands to boost North Sea surveillance to deter seabed threats
PARIS — The Netherlands plans to spend as much as €250 million (U.S. $274 million) on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities in the North Sea to protect the cables and pipelines that crisscross the seabed off its coast.
The Defence Ministry will mount cameras, radar systems and automatic identification system trackers on drilling platforms and offshore wind turbines, as well as buy satellite capacity to observe ship movements, Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren and State Defence Secretary Christophe van der Maat wrote in a Dec. 19 letter to lawmakers.
The Netherlands also plans to buy two vessels with underwater monitoring technology.
“This capability helps deter potential perpetrators of sabotage and espionage,” Ollongren and Van der Maat wrote. “Improving the protection of the vital infrastructure on the North Sea has the full attention of the cabinet.”
Seabed warfare has become a hot topic for European nations ever since last year’s attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. On the Dutch continental shelf, there are about 2,796 miles of pipeline and 3,728 miles of cable. The government considers offshore infrastructure essential to the Dutch economy and national security.
The current threats are primarily surface vessels carrying out “undesirable underwater activities,” according to the two officials. The government has assessed that there are presently no unmanned underwater vessels that can conduct sabotage operations in the Dutch-controlled area of the North Sea without the support of a surface vessel.
The ministry plans to buy commercial satellite capacity to track ship movements, including so-called dark vessels that turn off their automatic identification system transponders, until the Netherlands can build up its own satellite assets starting in 2027. The military will also monitor sea areas adjacent to the country’s area of responsibility in the North Sea to detect vessels that may pose a threat.
The costs of boosting the Dutch ISR capability in the North Sea will be between €50 million and €250 million, according to the letter.
The government in June announced a plan to develop its independent military satellite capacity through a constellation of satellites, within a spending bracket of €100 million to €250 million.
The Netherlands’ plan to acquire two “relatively simple” ships for a small crew would help monitor underwater activities, according to the ministers. Those ships will also serve as anti-air missile carriers for Dutch air defense frigates.….
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Anders Puck Nielsen, a military expert, has published a YouTube video in which he discusses whether Russia can indeed attack NATO and whether a Russia-NATO war is really possible. His line of thought looks logical to me, so I want to share his conclusions with you.
Mr. Nielsen argues that, while Russia is indeed unable to launch a full-scale invasion against NATO countries, it is quite capable of attempting to break the Alliance apart. Russia is interested in establishing a new geopolitical reality in which NATO ceases to exist and Russia can have bilateral relations with each country separately, not through an "umbrella" of an alliance.
Russia might start by launching a small "military operation" on just one NATO country - Northern Finland seems a possible location. The scale of the strike should be enough to "trigger" Article 5, but not large enough for a guaranteed full-scale response by the NATO forces.
In that case, Russia would watch NATO's response closely. If other NATO countries (and the US, in particular) will decide that it is not necessary to get involved due to the "minor" nature of the incident, that would effectively mean that NATO Alliance is over. And that opens a lot of favorable opportunities for Russia.
If, on the other hand, NATO acts clearly and decisively and shows that the Alliance is indeed willing to go to war for a small piece of "insignificant" land, it is probable that Russia will back off.
What do you think about this scenario?
Source:
Mr. Nielsen argues that, while Russia is indeed unable to launch a full-scale invasion against NATO countries, it is quite capable of attempting to break the Alliance apart. Russia is interested in establishing a new geopolitical reality in which NATO ceases to exist and Russia can have bilateral relations with each country separately, not through an "umbrella" of an alliance.
Russia might start by launching a small "military operation" on just one NATO country - Northern Finland seems a possible location. The scale of the strike should be enough to "trigger" Article 5, but not large enough for a guaranteed full-scale response by the NATO forces.
In that case, Russia would watch NATO's response closely. If other NATO countries (and the US, in particular) will decide that it is not necessary to get involved due to the "minor" nature of the incident, that would effectively mean that NATO Alliance is over. And that opens a lot of favorable opportunities for Russia.
If, on the other hand, NATO acts clearly and decisively and shows that the Alliance is indeed willing to go to war for a small piece of "insignificant" land, it is probable that Russia will back off.
What do you think about this scenario?
Source:
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