Originally Posted by
Lonewolf_50
OK, take the worst case scenario.
1. Joe B loses, Captain Orange wins.
2. In January he takes over. Makes noises about reconsidering/withdrawing from NATO. (Note: this past year Congress passed a law against unilateral withdrawal by the White House).
The problem with that is that deterrence depends on credibility. As soon as Captain Orange comes into Office and seeds serious doubts about his willingness to press the button (and I repeat: his putting of pressure on NATO members to pay their dues is fully OK for me but he conveys a different message - 2% or not I generally don't give sh*t about you being taken over by Russia), deterrence is immediately gone.
As a European I'm absolutely not keen on totally depending on France (I understood and fully share your view on how France would take this). But if the choice is France or nothing, France suddenly looks like a brilliant idea.