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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 9th Jun 2023, 13:09
  #1601 (permalink)  
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Nutty,

I know you didn't place the information in the public domain but please don't make it worse. I do appreciate the vast majority of what you post but can we ease off for a bit while Ukraine enters a crucial phase.

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Old 9th Jun 2023, 13:15
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I doubt that Nutty is the Kremlin's "go to" for information on their Special Operation.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 13:45
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Nutty's video geolocated to Salisbury Plain. Sssshhh....
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 13:53
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If I was you would be the first up against the wall comrade

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
I doubt that Nutty is the Kremlin's "go to" for information on their Special Operation.
I have only posted what is on several public domain sources for what it’s worth but point taken. Ooh and I avoided posting the Leo’s as the area could be seen.

You can only access data as to location if the metadata hasn’t been removed BTW, but regardless of that if you bothered to check the site it was posted 2 days ago, so they could be on the other side of Ukraine by now.

More relevant is all the comments and film about the dam breach as it is giving Russia real-time assessment as to the areas effected, possible areas to move troops from etc as unlike 2 day old vehicle movements the water is pretty static and is invaluable for the Russians planning their defence in the area.

Last edited by NutLoose; 9th Jun 2023 at 14:11.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 13:58
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Nutty's video geolocated to Salisbury Plain. Sssshhh....
Pesky Sarumites. At least they are well away from the druidic targets up the A303.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 13:58
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Nutty's video geolocated to Salisbury Plain. Sssshhh....
Anyone fancy leaking some stills from that Stacey Dooley documentary to keep the people in the Kremlin busy?
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 14:07
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I suspect the Kremlin will be getting plenty of information from their own retreating units in the area!
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 14:15
  #1608 (permalink)  
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Again static like the flooding……. 2 day old vehicle movements could be anywhere in any direction., and that’s assuming the Ukrainian posting them didn’t withhold them for a couple of days too.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 15:29
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
I doubt that Nutty is the Kremlin's "go to" for information on their Special Operation.
Nutty is very knowledgeable - which is more than apparently can be said for most (all?) anyone from the Kremlin (or anywhere near?) who seem to get their ideas from crap-coated crystal balls!
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 15:45
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
U.K. no longer has the facilities to manufacture gun barrels for the likes of the challenger as spares for Ukraine.



https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/l...ystems-admits/
Poland and Germany do.
very long lead time for 155mm barrels, have to be cooled over months

Last edited by peter we; 9th Jun 2023 at 16:03.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 16:34
  #1611 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by peter we
Poland and Germany do.
very long lead time for 155mm barrels, have to be cooled over months
The problem there is the Challenger 2 has a U.K. standalone barrel that I do not think anyone else uses, originally the Chally 2 was to have the German gun but it was binned for a home grown item, strangely the Chally 3 will actually now get the latest version of the German main gun that would have been originally fitted in the Chally 2.

I think the AS 90 has similar issues as a U.K. only main gun.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 16:37
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Originally Posted by jeallen01
Nutty is very knowledgeable - which is more than apparently can be said for most (all?) anyone from the Kremlin (or anywhere near?) who seem to get their ideas from crap-coated crystal balls!
I wouldn’t say that, just an avid reader.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 16:43
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...what was taken out near the dam...

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Old 9th Jun 2023, 16:52
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​​​​​​​Damaged Leopard 2A4 recovered by Ukrainian forces.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 16:59
  #1615 (permalink)  
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Based on this geolocation, I believe Ukraine has just hit an army headquarters visited by Putin in April.

46.019844, 34.846380

2R9W+WHJ Shchaslyvtseve, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine…

Heniches'k, 130km deep in the Russian controlled territory. #StormShadow…

The "Dnepr" Headquarters of the Russian army in Kherson…





​​​​​​​
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 17:23
  #1616 (permalink)  
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Some of these look repairable as a lot of tracks off.




​​​​​​​

Last edited by NutLoose; 9th Jun 2023 at 17:46.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 17:33
  #1617 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BlankBox
...what was taken out near the dam...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1666909924138311680
Re-posted to make the link visible.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 17:35
  #1618 (permalink)  
 
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Looking at the desperate efforts to rescue the poor citizens from vast flooded areas, I can think of one place which could supply plenty of rubber boats and outboard engines. Step forward, Border Force UK.
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Old 9th Jun 2023, 17:44
  #1619 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Some serious amount of kit on the move
Video was clearly taken in winter so why would anybody consider it as a violation of OPSEC?
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Old 10th Jun 2023, 02:50
  #1620 (permalink)  
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Seismic Record, 6 June 2023 Nova Kakhovka

attached is a time domain seismic record from NORSAR, the Norwegian Seismic Survey - Nuclear Explosion tracking system. They use a sensor array 600km to the W of Nova Kakhovka, that recorded the following:





There is what has been described as a sharp spike consistent with an explosion at the 01:55:51.5 time period above, on 6 June 2023, located within a 20-30km of the dam, they are still working on refining the location. The time offset for the transmission to the receiver places that explosion at 01:54 Norwegian time (time delay of around 2 minutes for the transmission through the crust). Time on the chart is Norwegian local time, Ukraine time is +1 hr on that. The extended analysis has suggested to the same analysts that an earlier smaller seismic event happened around 20 minutes earlier at the same location. An FFT frequency analysis would be interesting but it is probable that this is an explosion.

The array can achieve a phase comparison for localising the bearing and distance, other arrays or sensors would increase the accuracy, but it is attributed to the destruction of the dam at this time. The estimates magnitude as an earthquake is not particularly high, Magnitude 1.5-2 is relatively low energy, but the conversion from a detonation to a seismic event is not provided. They have at least earlier records that they can assess the explosive charge, the photos of November show large detonations and give timings, that record would be interesting to compare.











Seismic Signal Recorded from an Explosion


Slowness and azimuth determination for Bucovina array (BURAR) applying multiple signal techniques
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