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The Kerch Bridge Thread

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The Kerch Bridge Thread

Old 9th Oct 2022, 12:30
  #101 (permalink)  
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Bridge train fuel wagons still slowly being removed.


Last edited by ORAC; 9th Oct 2022 at 12:42.
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Old 9th Oct 2022, 16:28
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
The images of the road spans from below are revealing, and thanks for whoever handed that over, as the Ukrainians have a nice heads up confirmation of the structure, and where to whup it next time. I'm pretty sure that the civil engineers out there and those that have a good FEA analysis can confirm what the new coordinates for plinking is going to be. The Ruffians Russians would be better off leaving it as it is, there will be less damage to the bridge in the long run, and there would be lower tariffs for the bridge when Ruffians Russians want to holiday in a civilized country, assuming that Russian passports are ever again accepted anywhere outside of North Korea.

paradoxically, the underside images suggest the opposite to me, that the underside was protected from the blast. Interesting pictures though.
I now agree, all the soot and charred area on the deck on those overhead photo's are quite telling, with nothing underneath.
As an old Structural Engineer I was convinced that it had to be from below to lift those decks, no deck level blast would or should lift those deck spans......until I saw those underneath photo's!
No wonder they managed to build this in just 4 years looking at that design.......never seen a bridge deck span design done like that..! Its certainly, err......different.....you wouldn't see a design like that in the western world. Maybe it was the truck, and the spans did just lift off sideways in the blast!!

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Old 9th Oct 2022, 17:31
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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It looks like there was a rigid span bridging three piers (?) If so, and if the span got severed toward one end, the resulting cantilever load might cause it to buckle at the center pier. And the far end might get pulled off the third pier somewhere in the sequence?
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Old 9th Oct 2022, 17:54
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The blast videos show great gobs of shrapnel and debris coming up from below and curving over to the rail span.

​​​​​How much soot on the underside of the span would there be from an underwater explosion?

The soot on the top of the span is next to the tank fires.

Back in WWII, the B-26s found that bombed out abutments took longer to repair than spans.
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Old 9th Oct 2022, 17:56
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Originally Posted by Chu Chu
It looks like there was a rigid span bridging three piers (?) If so, and if the span got severed toward one end, the resulting cantilever load might cause it to buckle at the center pier. And the far end might get pulled off the third pier somewhere in the sequence?
Four spans between five piers, between expansion joints at either end of the four span section. See my post #10379

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Old 9th Oct 2022, 19:03
  #106 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
I now agree, all the soot and charred area on the deck on those overhead photo's are quite telling, with nothing underneath.
As an old Structural Engineer I was convinced that it had to be from below to lift those decks, no deck level blast would or should lift those deck spans......until I saw those underneath photo's!
No wonder they managed to build this in just 4 years looking at that design.......never seen a bridge deck span design done like that..! Its certainly, err......different.....you wouldn't see a design like that in the western world. Maybe it was the truck, and the spans did just lift off sideways in the blast!!
if you look at my links in my post earlier they criticised the build as its on a earthquake plain and has a poor bed to put the foundations on.

Question :

Having dropped one lane, the other lane is now putting all the weight on one side of the pier, will that cause issues as the spans are far out from the central pier.
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Old 9th Oct 2022, 20:01
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
The blast videos show great gobs of shrapnel and debris coming up from below and curving over to the rail span.

​​​​​How much soot on the underside of the span would there be from an underwater explosion?

The soot on the top of the span is next to the tank fires.

Back in WWII, the B-26s found that bombed out abutments took longer to repair than spans.
like this...



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Old 9th Oct 2022, 20:59
  #108 (permalink)  
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At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…

Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….
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Old 9th Oct 2022, 21:09
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Originally Posted by ORAC
At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…



Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….

The ID card image is Sam Hyde - a US comedian and internet troll: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Hyde


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Old 9th Oct 2022, 22:16
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Paranoia Russian style

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Old 9th Oct 2022, 22:31
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Originally Posted by ORAC
At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…



Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….

Was the truck driver 8 years old, female, with green hair, a Nazi T shirt, and 3 SIM games????

The FSB really is not what they used to be.

There is an implied insult to the Russian people that the powers that be could blame Ronald McDonald for the Tunguska crater, and the Russian population will accept the pig swill that is presented.
Kerch is looking quite possibly to be a Russian resistance response against the Russian presence in Ukraine, which is making Putin a better culler of Russians than the Black Death.
Putin may have done an Arnhem, and got a bridge in the cross hairs of his own team.


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Old 9th Oct 2022, 23:14
  #112 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
At a certain point you have to decide that this is deliberate, and someone in their department is deliberately taking the p**s out of their bosses…



Russian regime media is distributing a picture of an Ukrainian ID card which they claim shows that truck driver. The problem, however, is that parts of the picture seems to be copied from the ID card templates.

Especially the serial number 0000000 is really something….
and the document number above the serial number: 19910824-00026 That has all the hallmarks of being a Russian version of the EU Emsho, and that is the date of birth, of the girl from Moscow....
and the same expiry date...
and the same signature...
If this came from Russia, then they really are taking the mickey out of Putin. I presume that it is so bad that it is a meme from someone running along the same line of the credibility and competency of the FSB.

Awwww. C'mon! the Russians know the name and address of the driver of the truck at least, that was given to the Russians at the security checkpoint when the Russians inspected the truck and found it suitable for task er, ooops, not holding excess Vodka/contraband etc. By water or by land, this attack involved Russians either independent or in concert with Ukrainians.

Of course, Russia hasn't made an objection as yet to someone destroying Ukrainian property whilst under the care of the bare bear. In fact, come to think of it, Ukraine should bill Russia for the damage done to the illegally erected structure built on Ukrainian land, and for the demolition of it without an approval to demolish or remove the illegally built structure. I known my council would be over us like a rash for doing what the Russians have done.




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Old 10th Oct 2022, 06:41
  #113 (permalink)  
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Bridge of Crimea - Whodunnit?

Ukraine has played an excellent innings so far. They have exceeded global expectations on every score, and continue to do so.

If Ukraine had planned the attack, they would have done it in concert with attacks on the A-14 roadway and railways feeding into Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. That would have achieved the greatest political fallout for Putin. Yet, that didn't happen. Instead, a fairly large charge, but suspiciously not mil explosives, This was not high velocity shock front... I'm thinking Arbies ANFO.

So, in the last 2 weeks, Vladomort has had a massive push back in relation to manning his meat grinder. The natives are getting restless, and have a bit of an issue about the cost benefit that is being offered by Vlad's storm troopers. How does Vlad gain a reversal of his fortunes on the home front? What can the natives rally around readily? "What would Plato do?".

There are 2 contenders outside of Ukrainian and 5th column Russian resistance to Putin, that is:
  • FSB - Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation - Федеральная служба безопасности Российской Федерации (ФСБ России), tr. Federal'naya sluzhba bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii;
  • RF - Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - Вооружённые Си́лы Росси́йской Федера́ции, tr. Vooruzhonnije Síly Rossíyskoj Federátsii.
Out of these two, the FSB has shown a propensity to blow up it's own people, they did that twice in Moscow a few years back, and that was used as the casus belli for a tiff with Chechnya. Out of these two usual suspects, one has adequate knowledge of explosives to do a demonstration sufficient to get sympathy without taking out a critical MSR. The others have shown their behaviour of overkill.
If this was a truck bomb:
  • Who had control of the security checkpoint?
  • Who arranged to park fuel tanker wagons on a part of the rail line, on top of a known target?
  • Who had access of CCTV to time popping off the charge?
So Cheech n' Chong (Olaf n' Igor) set up a truck driver (1 if by land) with a set of explosives to make a spectacular show but limited damage, and then usher the poor victim through security, (photographed) and don't find any explosives... as they know that they are there. and retire to their security office to video the guy driving off into the sunset dawn. And then send him off on his way to nirvana. cue violins, harps, martial music, stern looking Putin visage... "We shall not let this outrage pass!".

Wicktor n' Vanya (2 if by sea) set up ANFO on a boat, and get the dolphins out of sonar range, and drive by the PS2 the boat to the same location and set off the touch paper. Security is advised to look the other way so there is no video of the boat arriving from Russia.

Qui bono?

Vladamort gets sympathy to his cause on the death star, If the FSB has done the dirty work, they get their own back by the embarrasment to the Army for incompetence.

The bang was more effective than expected; this bridge is made of Meccano crossed with Lego. It is not overbuilt for sure. If the blast was from the truck, with or without the drivers awareness, the trigger person is probably surprised that humpty dumpty fell down, that bridge is somewhat less sound than some old bailey bridges going back to round II.

Had Ukraine done this, there would have been another direct attack against the land bridges in Kherson or NE, to make the point that the Russians are at risk with their MSRs. That is indeed the case, the bridge is shown to be readily open to interdiction, much more than the Antanovsky bridge.

This is a high probability maskirovska action. Impressive video tho'....

Occam's Razor

Well done Vlad!



IMHO


P.S.: On what other occasion has Ukraine conducted a suicide mission? On what occasions has the FSB done assisted suicide against the will or knowledge of the soon to be dearly departed?

This stinks of incompetent FSB involvement and an attempt by Putin to get public opinion on side, while putting the Russian Army in it's place. I would suggest the Army staff look to their loyalties, and take action against the person and system that is involved in killing their troops. [hint: they aren't based west of the Ukraine border...]

Last edited by fdr; 10th Oct 2022 at 07:12. Reason: PS
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 13:08
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On my way east last Thursday… at least we were firmly over Turkey this time.



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Old 10th Oct 2022, 13:16
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Heading west on another airline off the coast of Turkey however had been a little close for comfort.






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Old 10th Oct 2022, 13:30
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Oh and just in case anyone missed it, this is the kind of boat floating around off Sevastopol, whether one of these was involved or not.
https://www.coffeeordie.com/ukraine-...ze-drone-boats
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 15:30
  #117 (permalink)  
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KERCH BRIDGE STRIKE: New overhead imagery reveals additional failures to bridge sections adjoining the blast site. Positioning of repair vehicles indicate that the extent of hidden damage is likely extensive.



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Old 10th Oct 2022, 16:49
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Lifting the train tanks, I don't know if they are simply being put onto the tracks again or lfted over onto another train to remove them. Would be an ideal time to hit it again as the cranes are purchased in the west and I bet they do not have many.



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Old 10th Oct 2022, 19:11
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Damage to the tracks on the bridge.

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Old 10th Oct 2022, 19:28
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More on the melted tracks. If the bogies have melted like that and the fire was whipping underneath the bridge I would think that structure is dubious at the least. From about 27 secs you can see distortion on the bridge steels between both tracks.

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