Ukraine has played an excellent innings so far. They have exceeded global expectations on every score, and continue to do so.
If Ukraine had planned the attack, they would have done it in concert with attacks on the A-14 roadway and railways feeding into Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. That would have achieved the greatest political fallout for Putin. Yet, that didn't happen. Instead, a fairly large charge, but suspiciously not mil explosives, This was not high velocity shock front... I'm thinking
Arbies ANFO.
So, in the last 2 weeks, Vladomort has had a massive push back in relation to manning his meat grinder. The natives are getting restless, and have a bit of an issue about the cost benefit that is being offered by Vlad's storm troopers. How does Vlad gain a reversal of his fortunes on the home front? What can the natives rally around readily? "What would Plato do?".
There are 2 contenders outside of Ukrainian and 5th column Russian resistance to Putin, that is:
- FSB - Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation - Федеральная служба безопасности Российской Федерации (ФСБ России), tr. Federal'naya sluzhba bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii;
- RF - Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - Вооружённые Си́лы Росси́йской Федера́ции, tr. Vooruzhonnije Síly Rossíyskoj Federátsii.
Out of these two, the FSB has shown a propensity to blow up it's own people, they did that twice in Moscow a few years back, and that was used as the casus belli for a tiff with Chechnya. Out of these two usual suspects, one has adequate knowledge of explosives to do a demonstration sufficient to get sympathy without taking out a critical MSR. The others have shown their behaviour of overkill.
If this was a truck bomb:
- Who had control of the security checkpoint?
- Who arranged to park fuel tanker wagons on a part of the rail line, on top of a known target?
- Who had access of CCTV to time popping off the charge?
So Cheech n' Chong (Olaf n' Igor) set up a truck driver (1 if by land) with a set of explosives to make a spectacular show but limited damage, and then usher the poor victim through security, (photographed) and don't find any explosives... as they know that they are there. and retire to their security office to video the guy driving off into th
e sunset dawn. And then send him off on his way to nirvana. cue violins, harps, martial music, stern looking Putin visage...
"We shall not let this outrage pass!".
Wicktor n' Vanya (2 if by sea) set up ANFO on a boat, and get the dolphins out of sonar range, and drive by the PS2 the boat to the same location and set off the touch paper. Security is advised to look the other way so there is no video of the boat arriving from Russia.
Qui bono?
Vladamort gets sympathy to his cause on the death star, If the FSB has done the dirty work, they get their own back by the embarrasment to the Army for incompetence.
The bang was more effective than expected; this bridge is made of Meccano crossed with Lego. It is not overbuilt for sure. If the blast was from the truck, with or without the drivers awareness, the trigger person is probably surprised that humpty dumpty fell down, that bridge is somewhat less sound than some old bailey bridges going back to round II.
Had Ukraine done this, there would have been another direct attack against the land bridges in Kherson or NE, to make the point that the Russians are at risk with their MSRs. That is indeed the case, the bridge is shown to be readily open to interdiction, much more than the Antanovsky bridge.
This is a high probability maskirovska action. Impressive video tho'....
Occam's Razor
Well done Vlad!
IMHO
P.S.: On what other occasion has Ukraine conducted a suicide mission? On what occasions has the FSB done assisted suicide against the will or knowledge of the soon to be dearly departed?
This stinks of incompetent FSB involvement and an attempt by Putin to get public opinion on side, while putting the Russian Army in it's place. I would suggest the Army staff look to their loyalties, and take action against the person and system that is involved in killing their troops. [hint: they aren't based west of the Ukraine border...]