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AUKUS

Old 25th Oct 2022, 03:31
  #1101 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ChrisJ800
Australia does not need to own B21s. Lets just lease an airbase or two to the US like the UK does.
The effectiveness of that strategy requires Australia and the US to be 100% synched in strategy and politics. What happens when one party disagrees on the action or response? Effectively nothing would be my guess judging by examples between the US and the UK.

Likely a money saving idea however.
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Old 25th Oct 2022, 08:13
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Originally Posted by golder
We did build and maintain 6 Collins

Hmm - not the same and not a great precedent - they were all late in delivery and they got later as time went one - the last one was over 3 years late I think

And the list of problems is typical -. SSN's are much more complex and the problems (and costs) escalate likewise. Best to rent/lease if you can until you understand more about ALL the issues involved.
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Old 25th Oct 2022, 14:30
  #1103 (permalink)  
 
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A thought i just had is conditions for resale. I believe the Oz F35 contract gives US the right to veto if we sell these planes. This came about because we sold Mirages to Pakistan who promptly made them capable of delivering muclear ordinance against US allies. And HMAS Melbourne was sold to China with intact catapults and arrester systems helping kick start Chinas carrier force. So any SSN deal will need a veto of who Autralia can resell these to!
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Old 25th Oct 2022, 16:35
  #1104 (permalink)  
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I can’t think of. Military jet sale in the last 50 years which didn’t have a veto on resale without authorisation in it.
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Old 26th Oct 2022, 00:40
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Hmm - not the same and not a great precedent - they were all late in delivery and they got later as time went one - the last one was over 3 years late I think

And the list of problems is typical -. SSN's are much more complex and the problems (and costs) escalate likewise. Best to rent/lease if you can until you understand more about ALL the issues involved.
5 minutes on google will tell you, you are on the wrong track. With procurement, an average 6 month delay per sub, isn't a deal breaker. My point was we aren't coming to the table empty. As well as A, there is UK and US in AUKUS. It is a joint input project.
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Old 26th Oct 2022, 03:08
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
TBH, Chris, as much as I am a 'bring the boys home' kind of guy, that's probably the most sensible approach. Those birds are going to be expensive.
Are they?
I thought they were on track for around US$600m per copy.
Pretty much on time and on budget was what I had read.
For arguments sake - if it was to go ahead - how many B-21s does the armchair hive mind think `straya would need?
That said, we'd have to wait in line behind the USAF...
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Old 26th Oct 2022, 04:07
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Originally Posted by tartare
Are they?
The budget was something like 500 billion - for that development, 100 airframes and 30 years operational life. The development part has come in on budget (they acutally came in under but USAF scrapped the unmanned part)
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Old 26th Oct 2022, 10:25
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Originally Posted by tartare
Are they?
I thought they were on track for around US$600m per copy.
Pretty much on time and on budget was what I had read.
For arguments sake - if it was to go ahead - how many B-21s does the armchair hive mind think `straya would need?
That said, we'd have to wait in line behind the USAF...
US$600m flyaway, is about a A$30-45 billion procurement and sustainment for 24. So a decision, if they are officially asked and offered, is significant. Up till now there hasn't been an apatite. The F-35 with standoff munitions and other stuff, is talked about.
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Old 27th Oct 2022, 01:14
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Originally Posted by golder
US$600m flyaway, is about a A$30-45 billion procurement and sustainment for 24. So a decision, if they are officially asked and offered, is significant.
Interested in the 24 number - assuming you mean notionally Australia would need 24 B-21s?
Has that number been floated somewhere?
If not - what's the rationale - thinking - we had 24 pigs, therefore replace like for like?
I wonder if a smaller number might meet needs - more advanced platform, more lethal, longer range loadout etc.

Last edited by tartare; 27th Oct 2022 at 06:10.
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Old 27th Oct 2022, 07:05
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Originally Posted by tartare
Interested in the 24 number - assuming you mean notionally Australia would need 24 B-21s?
Has that number been floated somewhere?
If not - what's the rationale - thinking - we had 24 pigs, therefore replace like for like?
I wonder if a smaller number might meet needs - more advanced platform, more lethal, longer range loadout etc.
Yes it was a squadron, a copy the F-111 number. I don't think anything has really been pushed. It was a US 'we would consider it' response to a jurno question, that kicked this off. Followed by an Aussie, everything is on the table for the review. There is really nothing public, even if they are seriously examining it. Though in the near future, I can't see us getting a bomber. There isn't even a hint in the defence budget. We have too much other stuff to do. I would be surprised come March, if a bomber was planned..
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Old 27th Oct 2022, 08:30
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The US are planning on 100 x B-21's but given previous procurement of hi-tech (only 21 B-2's) they'll be lucky to finish up with 50 (and I'm sure the USAF thinks that way as well).

The idea that Australia could afford and field 24 is fantasy - even if Congress would allow their export.

Just give the US basing rights
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Old 27th Oct 2022, 22:00
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Originally Posted by golder
US$600m flyaway, is about a A$30-45 billion procurement and sustainment for 24. So a decision, if they are officially asked and offered, is significant. Up till now there hasn't been an apatite. The F-35 with standoff munitions and other stuff, is talked about.
Because the Super Hornets & Growlers perform a significant amount of the attack role, I think that a single squadron of B-21ís would be required for the long range strategic role. They are very capable aircraft so a total of 15 would be sufficient to have 10-12 serviceable each day which would achieve the required capability & deterrent.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 00:01
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How many is secondary to our CONOPS, Should we get them in the first place? How do they fit into our plan and budget. Then it becomes mission and how many we need to fulfil that.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 00:46
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The fiscal situation in Aus, is dire! Just like the rest of the world. Highly unlikely to be any money for an aircraft that is yet to be seen, let alone that it is yet to fly.

Pretty hard to beat the strategic deterrent of Nuke Subs, packed with Precision Long Range fires and a loitering time of months. I know where I want my tax money spent.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 03:04
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In today's Australian (paywalled)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...00375fa7445d52

Defence has been given the green light to purchase a new $155m ship to help establish a new network of undersea sensors off the nation’s coast to detect foreign submarines and autonomous underwater vehicles.
The funding for the vessel was quietly listed in Tuesday’s budget – the ship’s first official mention by the government.

So - an underwater Jindalee.
Surprised there isn't one already.
Know about the South East Asian `hook' that keeps an ear on Chinese subs and ships - and had always wondered if something like that lurked on the sea bed around our Northern reaches...

Last edited by tartare; 28th Oct 2022 at 03:37.
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Old 28th Oct 2022, 07:03
  #1116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doors Off
The fiscal situation in Aus, is dire! Just like the rest of the world. Highly unlikely to be any money for an aircraft that is yet to be seen, let alone that it is yet to fly.

Pretty hard to beat the strategic deterrent of Nuke Subs, packed with Precision Long Range fires and a loitering time of months. I know where I want my tax money spent.
I understand that the the discussion about buying B-21’s is because they believe they can be operational much earlier than the SSN’s - it’s a case of filling the capability gap as early as possible. They would have a similar stand-off capability with long range weapons as the SSN’s.

Last edited by Going Boeing; 28th Oct 2022 at 20:58.
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Old 30th Oct 2022, 20:59
  #1117 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-...alia/101585380

possibility of a semi permanent deployment of B-52's to australia, same facilities would be usable for B-21's
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Old 31st Oct 2022, 08:45
  #1118 (permalink)  
 
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Now that makes sense - move them basing south from Guam - which is now well within range of missiles
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Old 1st Nov 2022, 01:05
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Originally Posted by rattman
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-...alia/101585380

possibility of a semi permanent deployment of B-52's to australia, same facilities would be usable for B-21's
good move and hope it happens soon. Im tempoarily in Philippines and hoping for more US deployments here too.
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Old 1st Nov 2022, 02:43
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B 52s operated out of Darwin on a regular basis in the 90's. Says a lot more about the longevity of the airframe than the current geo-political situation. There is one in a museum at Darwin Airport after they stopped coming here as a memento of its service. If it could talk it would say "I'll be back!"
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