Originally Posted by
larssnowpharter
The USA is moving a huge amount of hardware into theatre at the moment. This will be to pressure Iran into an agreement or to put the proverbial boots on the ground. A couple of weeks ago when the MEU was first reported as heading that way, the conversation was about Kharg Island. Then I dismissed that and suggested the islands in the SoH as being a more likely threat.
However, I think I may be wrong. There are only two ways out of this:
1. A negotiated deal that provides guarantees that the SoH stays open.
2. Securing the SoH by military force.
Option 1 seems unlikely and the mood music is depressing. Trump needs something that demonstrate that he is a winner.
Option 2 is being studied by the best brains at CENTCOM and elsewhere and various options will be being presented up the chain. The final call being made by the CinC. The lure of taking over the Straight will be strong and one that KSA seems to favour and may find truck with other nations.
But how? I will rule out the attack on the various islands except as a prelude. The islands also sit within artillery range of the mainland. Putting troops on them just makes them targets. The County of Bander Abbas would make sense. It's coastline is where most of the anti shipping missiles are housed and the port would be a prize. Plenty of flatish farmland to the East. Limited road access along the coast or through mountain valleys to the North. Definitely a tough ask but
I pray that Option 1 comes good.
Originally Posted by
ORAC
Published by the Iranian Consulate in Mumbai:
"Breaker Breaker..."
Curious that Iran actually has a cogent response, what comes out of 1600 Penn, less so, (that needs an interpreter, or better yet, chicken entrails to divine this hours position).
As entertaining as the reparations part is, the history of any success with that from the USA is pretty slim, in fact, Vietnam never received any reparations, instead actually paid the US 145m towards the cost of the war waged against it. Back when civilisation was not civilised (last week?), at least pre Treaty of Versailles, reparations were not a codified concept, and since then, it didn't work out well for France, and demands through the ICJ have generally ended up on their nose in the dust.
The last little item in the list, #5 puts a bit of a dagger into the heart of the problem, Brutus would be pleased. The Toga clad one less so, although if that can be spun as "we both control the strait", and put on merch, then that might get past the wicket keeper... FONOPS be damned. Accepting that might annoy the rest of the gulf states that have as much of a right to the control of the waterway as anyone else, but in all cases, consider UNCLOS as inoperable as the UNGA and UNSC.
Continued access concentrates the minds of those in New Delhi, Beijing, and Tokyo, but that has as high a risk as I can imagine of rattling the cages of Manila and Taipei. Russia of course is a recipient of the largesse in sanctions relief for reasons that have not been explained, along with Iran itself, which just proves that irony is not lost on the participants of this circus.
Not dull.
