Iran

[ORAC]

The story led the BBC News at lunchtime - details were scant.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/us...a-iran-attack/

Iran

[ORAC]

https://x.com/ThetiMapping/status/20...525506140?s=20

​​​​​​​In response to Israeli strikes on Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, the IRGC announced evacuation orders for 6 strategic steel factories in Israel and GCC:

- Saudi Arabia: SABIC Hadeed Complex, Al-Jubail. The facility has a capacity of 6 million tons of crude steel per year, making it the dominant producer in the country due to support from the Saudi sovreign wealth fund.

- UAE: Emirates Steel (Masteel), Musaffah area of Abu Dhabi. Capacity is 3.5 million tons of steel per year, contributing to 10% of Abu Dhabi's total non-oil manufacturing output.

- Qatar: Qatar Steel, Mesaieed industrial city, near Al-Wakra. Capacity is 2.5 million tons annually, making it Qatar's largest domestic supplier.

- Kuwait: United Steel Industrial Company, Shuwaikh industrial area. Its annual capacity is 1.2 million tons of steel billets & a rolling capacity of 1.4 million tons of rebar, making it the largest producer in the country.

- Bahrain: Bahrain Steel, Block 117 in Manama. It can produce 11–12 million tons of iron ore pellets per year. It's one of the only major pellet producers in the entire Gulf region. As a result, many steel mills in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE rely on the facility.

- Israel: Yehuda Steel, Ashdod. It has a scrap recycling capacity of 250,000-300,000 tons, rolling capacity of 250k-350k, and crude steel capacity of 250k-350k. Tasnim also mentioned Israel Steel Rolling Mills, south of Acre. ~90% of Israel's steel is imported, including from China, Turkey, UAE, Russia & the US.

​​​​​​​

[DuncanDoenitz]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

Maybe I got that wrong. Can you use it to take out boats, planes and the like?

Yes.

But they must be in boatyard, hangar, carpark and the like.

[Heliads]

Originally Posted by DuncanDoenitz

Yes.

But they must be in boatyard, hangar, carpark and the like.

And they take almost as long to replace as said boatyard, hangar, carpark and the like.

[ORAC]

The Kuwaiti Armed Forces say several Iranian drones hit Kuwait International Airport, causing significant damage to the radar system and a large fire at the Airport’s fuel tanks. No injuries were reported. A total of 15 Iranian drones were launched at Kuwait in the past 24 hours.

[ORAC]

USS Ford now in Split, Croatia for crew R&R whilst repairs are made.

https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/...split-croatia/

[ORAC]

[fdr]

Houthis have apparently lobbed "missiles" from Yemen to.... Israel. Starting to get interesting. That will answer the question on the Bab-al-Mandab being messed with.

There goes the neighbourhood.

Yemen's issues now become existential threats to KSA for certain, horn of Africa as well, and even, once again, to Oman, just like the good ol' days. Closure of the Red Sea impacts Europe, North Africa, Asia, North Asia... pretty much everyone other than Brazil and points south...

The great orator in the WH might need to have a new voice that is coherent to achieve any measure of alliance to go and pull the goat out of the stew and put it back together again. Taking out the Red Sea as an MSR is going to cause mayhem to many, more than just the gulf does.

It is probably a long shot to suggest that the WH read some of their own history when the voice goes off on Europe never supporting the USA's wars, seems that there was once this thing called 9/11, and NATO and other non NATO countries responded to support the US when Article 5 was invoked, for the only occasion since the inception of NATO. More Danish forces per capita were sent to Iraq and Afghanistan than the US did, which is not apparent in the rhetoric that vents from the WH. At the beginning of WW-2.0, the USA did not support the UK, until eventually FDR assisted through Lend-Lease, which happened to more or less bankrupt the UK later. The US entered the war when attacked by Japan, (against Japan) and then Hitler apparently channelling future presidents, declared war against the USA. Going back further, in WW-1.0, the US was late to the party, but was instrumental to the outcome, the same is true of WW-2. Mr T's bestie friend, Vlad, wants a return to the good ol' days of being Tzar, (seems to be a lot of that going around lately) and that overlooks that WW-2 got its kick off whistle due to the actions of the USSR planning to invade in coordination with Hitler, the state of Poland, while carving up more of Europe to Stalins benefit. Today, Vlad has been happily giving targeting info to Iran and presumably the Houthi's, while being graciously having sanctions removed from their oil supplies.

Reminds me of the opening lines to "Soap"... "Confused? You should be...".

India, China, Japan, and even South Korea will have great interest in what now happens, this is a direct threat to their own stability.

Regime change is on the way, the question is, in what countries.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

First off, is Pprune being hacked. Suddenly 'prove you're human' has appeared.​​​​​​

Not a bad idea.

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

Anyway apparently the Houthies have joined in. They sent a single missile which apparently is 'a major escalation' according to the the breathless media coverage. They'll close off the red Sea apparently. This is even worse than the strait of Hormuz supposedly. 🙄​​​​​​

Nope, it is one of the first times the Iranians have made a really serious blunder in this whole goat stew alternative. Iran now has given a fair justification for countries to consider the broader implications of losing the Gulf and Red Sea traffic at the same time. This will have China doing some math, they get a bit of a whack from the point they are a margin arbitrage to the rest of the world, but they have an immediate problem that is on a timer related to liquid hydrocarbons, and... fertiliser. Fertiliser is a big deal for China, without it, it is begging for food from the countries that it has been pi$$ing off for some time. Euro, GBR, Egypt, etc, all get an issue, and IMO will be doing the sums on the available tonnage that can be shifted, as going around Cape of Good Hope adds time that is not available for the amount of cargo that is carried, apart from making some Temu stuff more expensive.

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

Really? Much as I enjoy Trump's misadventures and his hubris and eventual downfall. I do appreciate what he's trying to achieve. We may hate the man but who knows how this will turn out. I used to care more about this stuff. But really at the moment I really care that the demented fool is making my life more expensive as he careers through his bizarre thought processes. But like covid his time will pass. ​

A bit of Schadenfreude is probably not unhealthy. Iran would do well to cease shooting its own citizens, particularly girls, in the head. Seems to be a bit inconsistent with a lot of the Koran,

"Let there be no compulsion in religion" "لا إكراه في الدين"

There is no hadud (. حدود prescribed) punishment for not wearing a hijab in the Quran.

The problem with the rather innocent issue that sharia law gets an input from the head shed, and if they have an issue, then they get the right to make edicts... The Koran doesn't make drug pushers illegal, that is the dudes at the top of the food chain who seem to relish making stuff that messes with the masses. There is nothing about education bans for females, that is in the same bag of doo that the shooting in the head for playing soccer, not wearing a scarf and basically, not being the guy-in-charge

v v v Deeper dive v v v

Spoiler

 

 

Surah 24:31
"And tell the believing women to lower their gaze and guard their chastity, and not to reveal their adornments1 except what normally appears.2 Let them draw their veils over their chests, and not reveal their ˹hidden˺ adornments3 except to their husbands, their fathers, their fathers-in-law, their sons, their stepsons, their brothers, their brothers’ sons or sisters’ sons, their fellow women, those ˹bondwomen˺ in their possession, male attendants with no desire, or children who are still unaware of women’s nakedness. Let them not stomp their feet, drawing attention to their hidden adornments. Turn to Allah in repentance all together, O believers, so that you may be successful."

وقل للمؤمنات يغضضن من أبصارهن ويحفظن فروجهن، ولا يُبدين زينتهن1 إلا ما ظهر منها2. وليضربن بخمرهن على جيوبهن، ولا يُبدين زينتهن ˹المخفية˺3 إلا لبعولتهن أو آبائهن أو آباء بعولتهن أو أبنائهن أو أبناء بعولتهن أو إخوانهن أو بني إخوانهن أو بني أخواتهن أو نسائهن أو ما ملكت أيمانهن أو التابعين غير أولي الإربة من الرجال أو الطفل الذين لم يظهروا على عورات النساء. ولا يضربن بأرجلهن ليُعلم ما يخفين من زينتهن. وتوبوا إلى الله جميعًا أيها المؤمنون لعلكم تفلحون.


Surah 33:59
"O Prophet! Ask your wives, daughters, and believing women to draw their cloaks over their bodies. In this way it is more likely that they will be recognized ˹as virtuous˺ and not be harassed. And Allah is All-Forgiving, Most Merciful"
يا أيها النبي! قُل لأزواجك وبناتك ونساء المؤمنين أن يُدنين عليهن من جلابيبهن. ذلك أدنى أن يُعرَفن ˹كعفيفات˺ فلا يُؤذَين. وكان الله غفورًا رحيمًا

That will make politics much less interesting.

Originally Posted by Steepclimb

But like covid his time will pass. ​​​​

And his replacement will be? The pickings are pretty slim for talent.

[West Coast]

Anyway apparently the Houthies have joined in. They sent a single missile which apparently is 'a major escalation' according to the the breathless media coverage.

Imagine their logistics guy is all over them, only so many missiles with no real opportunity to resupply in the near term at least.

[rattman]

The 'damaged ' E-3

X - Formerly Twitter

[petit plateau]

Originally Posted by West Coast

Imagine their logistics guy is all over them, only so many missiles with no real opportunity to resupply in the near term at least.

They only need to have more missiles than the targets have interceptors. In that sense, now is the moment when their missiles would seem to have greatest utility. A point that applies equally to Iran and all their proxies/allies.

So far I have only seen reports of the Houthis using drones and similar, i.e no ballistic missiles. That clearly is less of a magazine depth issue for the Israelis. Has anyone seen reports of them having or using ballistic missiles ?

[Biggus]

Originally Posted by rattman

The 'damaged ' E-3
https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/2038062541511749953

"Extensive damage".....I think that's something of an understatement.

[B Fraser]

Originally Posted by fdr

Regime change is on the way, the question is, in what countries.

If China has designs on Taiwan, it's now or never.

[Bob Viking]

Radiation warnings

The fact that nations (in this case Bahrain but there are similar in Qatar, Kuwait and UAE) are even having to publicise things such as this are a major warning sign that things are teetering in the brink.

BV

[BANANASBANANAS]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

The fact that nations (in this case Bahrain but there are similar in Qatar, Kuwait and UAE) are even having to publicise things such as this are a major warning sign that things are teetering in the brink.

BV

I have to agree. There is nobody in control, no plan, no idea what ‘success’ would look like and no way out without massive loss of face to the CinC.

[DogTailRed2]

Originally Posted by rattman

The 'damaged ' E-3
https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/2038062541511749953

Two things that concern me about this war. America hasn't learnt anything from Ukraine. Each loss is a piece of kit no longer available for the defence of Ukraine.
Putin is rubbing his hands.

[EDLB]

It smells like an eerie rerun of Putins SMO. Planned as a few days bombing run Venezuela style may very well turn into an extensive meat grinding ground war with 4 digit body bags a day lasting years with Afghanistan style end result. The positive side for Iran, they figured to set up a toll booth creating 600 million a month, 2 million a ship, without even digging a channel.
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...0v3b6sw7r3m8ah

[SWBKCB]

Originally Posted by petit plateau

So far I have only seen reports of the Houthis using drones and similar, i.e no ballistic missiles. That clearly is less of a magazine depth issue for the Israelis. Has anyone seen reports of them having or using ballistic missiles ?

You Tube

[safetypee]

Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS

There is nobody in control, no plan, no idea what ‘success’ would look like and no way out without massive loss of face to the CinC.

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

America hasn't learnt anything from Ukraine.

History is redefining 'Guerrilla Warfare' - Ukraine and Iran with drones; an uncertain future until the time when we can look back.
Any past lessons which might apply in this situation to combat the 'Guerrillas'.