Iran
Joined: Feb 2006
Aviation Qualifications: LAME
Posts: 36,137
Likes: 5,738
From: Falling off the end of the thread
It does not need to be a nuke, they could use a dirty bomb in the likes of Israel etc, Ukraine has shown in the past that ingenuity can overcome such delivery hurdles. They have missiles with. 2000 mile range.
…
…
Last edited by NutLoose; 23rd June 2025 at 03:46.
Joined: Apr 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 4,914
Likes: 608
From: surfing, watching for sharks
A dirty bomb is bad but isn't on the same level as a nuclear weapon. This being why nations aren't content to simply have a dirty bomb but instead push for nukes.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
As an aside, as part of the operation a wave of KC-46 deployed west to Hawaii, Guam and Australia followed by a wave of 6 x B-2A (with the 7 on the raid that makes a total of 13, an impressive percent of the force to get airborne at the same time given their prolonged grounding and serviceability problems.).
Have they returned home or are they positioned in Guam and/or Diego Garcia? If the latter they will well positioned for any follow-up raids if required.
Have they returned home or are they positioned in Guam and/or Diego Garcia? If the latter they will well positioned for any follow-up raids if required.
Joined: Apr 2001
Aviation Qualifications: ATP+Mil
Posts: 4,914
Likes: 608
From: surfing, watching for sharks
Thought Trump had announced all the B2 aircraft had landed, perhaps not all in Missouri. Also, imagine the pacific wave didn't have to be fully mission capable to complete their part of the mission.
Joined: Jan 2008
Aviation Qualifications: SLF
Posts: 1,016
Likes: 1,065
From: Australia
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
Vice President Vance: "Our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change."
SecDef Hegseth: "This mission was not and has not been about regime change."
SecState Rubio: Regime change is "certainly not the goal of what we're working on here."
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/0...appen-00417738
Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message
SecDef Hegseth: "This mission was not and has not been about regime change."
SecState Rubio: Regime change is "certainly not the goal of what we're working on here."
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/0...appen-00417738
Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message
Last edited by ORAC; 23rd June 2025 at 05:01.
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 107
Likes: 79
From: Nutbush City Limits
Value for money?
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities.
When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards.
In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland.
In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure.
When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat.
Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons.
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities.
When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards.
In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland.
In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure.
When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat.
Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
Long thread with photos and analysis.
🧵
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...174466551.html
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures.
Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider.
The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them…….
Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider.
The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them…….
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...174466551.html
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,254
From: Peripatetic
New York Times: https://archive.ph/cQnX0
Officials Concede They Don’t Know the Fate of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile
Officials Concede They Don’t Know the Fate of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile
A day after President Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated” by American bunker-busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, the actual state of the program seemed far more murky, with senior officials conceding they did not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.
“We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that’s one of the things that we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about,” Vice President JD Vance told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. Nonetheless, he contended that the country’s potential to weaponize that fuel had been set back substantially because it no longer had the equipment to turn that fuel into operative weapons.
The Iranians have made it clear they are not interested in having conversations with the United States, accusing Washington of deceiving Tehran during the last set of negotiations while planning the air attack. Moreover, that stockpile of fuel is now one of the few nuclear bargaining chips in Iranian hands……
The Israeli military’s initial analysis concluded that the site, the target of American and Israeli military planners for more than 26 years, sustained serious damage from the strike but had not been completely destroyed.
But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons.
The 60-percent enriched fuel had been stored deep inside another nuclear complex, near the ancient capital of Isfahan. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of United Nations inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. In an interview on CNN on Sunday he added that “Iran has made no secret that they have protected this material.”
Asked by text later in the day whether he meant that the fuel stockpile — which is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars — had been moved, he replied, “I do.” That appeared to be the mystery about the fuel’s fate that Mr. Vance was discussing…….
“We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that’s one of the things that we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about,” Vice President JD Vance told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. Nonetheless, he contended that the country’s potential to weaponize that fuel had been set back substantially because it no longer had the equipment to turn that fuel into operative weapons.
The Iranians have made it clear they are not interested in having conversations with the United States, accusing Washington of deceiving Tehran during the last set of negotiations while planning the air attack. Moreover, that stockpile of fuel is now one of the few nuclear bargaining chips in Iranian hands……
The Israeli military’s initial analysis concluded that the site, the target of American and Israeli military planners for more than 26 years, sustained serious damage from the strike but had not been completely destroyed.
But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons.
The 60-percent enriched fuel had been stored deep inside another nuclear complex, near the ancient capital of Isfahan. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of United Nations inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. In an interview on CNN on Sunday he added that “Iran has made no secret that they have protected this material.”
Asked by text later in the day whether he meant that the fuel stockpile — which is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars — had been moved, he replied, “I do.” That appeared to be the mystery about the fuel’s fate that Mr. Vance was discussing…….
Last edited by T28B; 23rd June 2025 at 12:06. Reason: use quotes for cited material
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,515
Likes: 151
From: A better place.
FWIW - here is how small an implosion warhead can get - the W-54 SADM.
https://x.com/engineers_feed/status/1937027826882113986/photo/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W54
https://x.com/engineers_feed/status/1937027826882113986/photo/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W54
Joined: Jan 2008
Aviation Qualifications: SLF
Posts: 1,016
Likes: 1,065
From: Australia
FWIW - here is how small an implosion warhead can get - the W-54 SADM.
https://x.com/engineers_feed/status/1937027826882113986/photo/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W54
https://x.com/engineers_feed/status/1937027826882113986/photo/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W54
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 202
Likes: 50
From: UK
Value for money?
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities.
When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards.
In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland.
In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure.
When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat.
Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons.
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities.
When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards.
In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland.
In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure.
When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat.
Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons.
Before the US attack, Israeli sources were considering a Special Forces* raid on Fordo. Times of Israel, June 22:
Israeli strike on Fordo increasingly likely.
Publicly, Netanyahu has not ruled out Israel attacking Fordo alone, though officials have not provided any details on how that would be achieved.
Of all of Iran’s key nuclear weapons-related sites, Fordo is believed to be the only one untouched by war.
Channel 12 reported, citing a senior Israeli diplomatic source, that the Isfahan nuclear site was “destroyed” on Saturday. As the Natanz facility and other targets were heavily damaged or destroyed earlier in Israel’s campaign, the diplomat said that “only Fordo remains.”
To destroy the threat posed by Fordo, four sources said it is now increasingly likely that Israel will launch a solo military operation. Israeli air superiority over much of Iran makes an operation more feasible, though still risky, said two of the sources.
Publicly, Netanyahu has not ruled out Israel attacking Fordo alone, though officials have not provided any details on how that would be achieved.
Of all of Iran’s key nuclear weapons-related sites, Fordo is believed to be the only one untouched by war.
Channel 12 reported, citing a senior Israeli diplomatic source, that the Isfahan nuclear site was “destroyed” on Saturday. As the Natanz facility and other targets were heavily damaged or destroyed earlier in Israel’s campaign, the diplomat said that “only Fordo remains.”
To destroy the threat posed by Fordo, four sources said it is now increasingly likely that Israel will launch a solo military operation. Israeli air superiority over much of Iran makes an operation more feasible, though still risky, said two of the sources.
I think it's quite likely that the Israelis are planning raids on sites at which enriched Uranium and equipment are now stored.
*I have seen a quote from an Israeli spokesperson that a raid could be carried out 'with people, not planes'.
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,130
Likes: 326
From: Royal Berkshire
You'd like to think that the Israeli's likely had 'eyes on' where all those cargo trucks have gone that were lined up outside the Fordow complex the day before the US air raid.
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 360
Likes: 152
From: Europe
- if the Iranians were not motivated to have nuclear devices before, they certainly will be now (imho);
- quite likely the better centrifuges were moved out of Fordow pre-strike;
- ditto it is thought that the bulk of the enriched uranium (~400 kg of 60% U-235) is at the Isfahan storage tunnels;
- setting up a centrifuge cascade in a new location is fairly simple, but the set-up activity and the operational activity will be observable;
- following the people is surely within the capabailities of the intel assets;
- observing the electrical consumption is a key indicator for the cascade train operation, hard to hide that - many previous strikes have been on the elecltrical supplies, especially the longer lead lumps;
- (earth fill in Fordow tunnel entrances most likely was an attempt by Iran to create better post-strike situation, i.e. reduced collapse);
>>> so the Fordow strike may be intended to flush the assets (human and machinery) into the open where they can be more easily targetted in the next iteration
- (~400 kg of 60% U-235) enough for say 10 devices if further enriched
- Khoramshahr (Kheibar) ballistic missile[2] offers a range of 2,000 km and can carry a 1,500-kilogram warhead.[3][4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khorramshahr_(missile)
"This means Iran has retained 400 kg of 60% HEU, the ability to manufacture centrifuges, and one, possibly two underground enrichment sites. That is also to say nothing of possible secret sites, ·
"Let's say Iran decides to rush a bomb. Iran can install ~1.5 cascades a week. In six weeks, it could have 9 cascades of IR-6 machines. It would take those machines about 60 days to enrich all 400 kg to WGU. Altogether that's about five months"
>>> but to do that would mean running all the HEU through the centrifuges. Surely anyone with sense would only run batches through, and would keep the remainder well dispersed at other sites with plenty of bait-and-switch going on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy
Take a read of the Little Boy specs and you can see that it would not take much ingenuity and access to modern technology to fit such a basic device - so basic it did not even require testing pre-Hiroshima - on to a Khorramshahr-4
- Israel is currently taking out Irania missile TEUs pre-launch in 15-minute cycles
- that has the launch rate down, it was about 30/day and seems to be only a few/day now
- at ~30/day the leakage rate was about 10%, hence the hits in Tel Aviv etc
- at 2 interceptors each it was quite likely the Iranian magazine (~3000 IRBMs) was deeper than the available Israeli/USA ABM interceptor magazine (unknown size)
>>> so if this had been a game of patience, Iran was holding the deeper cards, hence the desire by Israel to push things along and change the game;
- now Israel and/or USA needs to keep armed overwatch* 24x7 on Iran to
a) further degrade IRBM launch capability (and win time to rebuild interceptor magazine (regrettable for Ukraine**));
b) flush out those enrichment assets, prevent next cycle of enrichment for n viable devices;
c) try to change the nature of the game once again.
>>> hence all the talk about regime change
( * I wonder how good on-orbit radiation detection is these days, and how much shielding is required to defeat that. Human intel seems more plausible to me. Not a good time to be a spook in Iran).
(** Industrial production capabilities of interceptors really does need to ramp up to support Ukraine as well as Israel, ideally not just of the Patriot flavour)
- ditto it is thought that the bulk of the enriched uranium (~400 kg of 60% U-235) is at the Isfahan storage tunnels;
- setting up a centrifuge cascade in a new location is fairly simple, but the set-up activity and the operational activity will be observable;
- following the people is surely within the capabailities of the intel assets;
- observing the electrical consumption is a key indicator for the cascade train operation, hard to hide that - many previous strikes have been on the elecltrical supplies, especially the longer lead lumps;
- (earth fill in Fordow tunnel entrances most likely was an attempt by Iran to create better post-strike situation, i.e. reduced collapse);
>>> so the Fordow strike may be intended to flush the assets (human and machinery) into the open where they can be more easily targetted in the next iteration
- (~400 kg of 60% U-235) enough for say 10 devices if further enriched
- Khoramshahr (Kheibar) ballistic missile[2] offers a range of 2,000 km and can carry a 1,500-kilogram warhead.[3][4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khorramshahr_(missile)
"Let's say Iran decides to rush a bomb. Iran can install ~1.5 cascades a week. In six weeks, it could have 9 cascades of IR-6 machines. It would take those machines about 60 days to enrich all 400 kg to WGU. Altogether that's about five months"
>>> but to do that would mean running all the HEU through the centrifuges. Surely anyone with sense would only run batches through, and would keep the remainder well dispersed at other sites with plenty of bait-and-switch going on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy
Take a read of the Little Boy specs and you can see that it would not take much ingenuity and access to modern technology to fit such a basic device - so basic it did not even require testing pre-Hiroshima - on to a Khorramshahr-4
- Israel is currently taking out Irania missile TEUs pre-launch in 15-minute cycles
- at ~30/day the leakage rate was about 10%, hence the hits in Tel Aviv etc
- at 2 interceptors each it was quite likely the Iranian magazine (~3000 IRBMs) was deeper than the available Israeli/USA ABM interceptor magazine (unknown size)
>>> so if this had been a game of patience, Iran was holding the deeper cards, hence the desire by Israel to push things along and change the game;
- now Israel and/or USA needs to keep armed overwatch* 24x7 on Iran to
a) further degrade IRBM launch capability (and win time to rebuild interceptor magazine (regrettable for Ukraine**));
b) flush out those enrichment assets, prevent next cycle of enrichment for n viable devices;
c) try to change the nature of the game once again.
>>> hence all the talk about regime change
( * I wonder how good on-orbit radiation detection is these days, and how much shielding is required to defeat that. Human intel seems more plausible to me. Not a good time to be a spook in Iran).
(** Industrial production capabilities of interceptors really does need to ramp up to support Ukraine as well as Israel, ideally not just of the Patriot flavour)
Joined: Feb 2000
Posts: 758
Likes: 34
From: Rural England, thank God.
Apparently the Reds were at Mildenhall yesterday and could not get out in order to perform their display at Duxford. Presumably they based themselves there for the weekend. Says something about RAF/USAF co-ordination. But obviously operational needs come first...
Joined: Feb 2006
Aviation Qualifications: LAME
Posts: 36,137
Likes: 5,738
From: Falling off the end of the thread
Like I said earlier the consequences of these actions will be far reaching, yes I agree Iran shouldn’t have nukes and it has surely put a dent in those plans, but the ramifications are massive, if they shut the gulf then oil will become a massive problem.
The world was ticking along nicely with only the Ukraine war to cause concern, but since the changes since the new president was elected it has turned into a quagmire:
Oil prices will go through the roof
We now have a war in the Middle East and regardless of what the WhiteHouse says about peace, this is not going to go away anytime soon, go to war with a country and you have to accept the consequences just as Russia is finding out.
The markets and world economy is in free fall and the rise in oil prices will just exacerbate that.
Rising oil prices will see more black market energy from Russia, higher prices will make their oil economically viable to produce and increased revenues will build their military sustainability to process the War in Ukraine.
i cannot really see any win win situations in this, except they have put back Iran possibly for a decade.
I just pray Iran does not revert to the likes of 911 attacks, though I wouldn’t put it passed them.
The world was ticking along nicely with only the Ukraine war to cause concern, but since the changes since the new president was elected it has turned into a quagmire:
Oil prices will go through the roof
We now have a war in the Middle East and regardless of what the WhiteHouse says about peace, this is not going to go away anytime soon, go to war with a country and you have to accept the consequences just as Russia is finding out.
The markets and world economy is in free fall and the rise in oil prices will just exacerbate that.
Rising oil prices will see more black market energy from Russia, higher prices will make their oil economically viable to produce and increased revenues will build their military sustainability to process the War in Ukraine.
i cannot really see any win win situations in this, except they have put back Iran possibly for a decade.
I just pray Iran does not revert to the likes of 911 attacks, though I wouldn’t put it passed them.