Originally Posted by
EddyCurr
Value for money?
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities.
When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards.
In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland.
In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure.
When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat.
Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons.
I agree - unimpressive results from a purportedly devastating weapon. In fairness, the GBU-57 had never been used in battle. In the Pentagon briefing, General Caine stated that a full Battle Damage Assessment would take some time to complete. President Trump has expressed rashly, I think.
Before the US attack, Israeli sources were considering a Special Forces* raid on Fordo.
Times of Israel, June 22:
Israeli strike on Fordo increasingly likely.
Publicly, Netanyahu has not ruled out Israel attacking Fordo alone, though officials have not provided any details on how that would be achieved.
Of all of Iran’s key nuclear weapons-related sites, Fordo is believed to be the only one untouched by war.
Channel 12 reported, citing a senior Israeli diplomatic source, that the Isfahan nuclear site was “destroyed” on Saturday. As the Natanz facility and other targets were heavily damaged or destroyed earlier in Israel’s campaign, the diplomat said that “only Fordo remains.”
To destroy the threat posed by Fordo, four sources said it is now increasingly likely that Israel will launch a solo military operation. Israeli air superiority over much of Iran makes an operation more feasible, though still risky, said two of the sources.
The US bombing raises the question of whether a surface raid would still be possible. Are all entrances at Fordo now blocked by rubble? If they are...would a raid be necessary anyway?
I think it's quite likely that the Israelis are planning raids on sites at which enriched Uranium and equipment are now stored.
*I have seen a quote from an Israeli spokesperson that a raid could be carried out 'with people, not planes'.