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Ukraine Crisis 2014

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Ukraine Crisis 2014

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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:06
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Footage of Ukrainians flying out from Crimea at following link. Even a Be-12 Mail flying boat managed to make it out!

Ukraine: UN Envoy Threatened By Armed Mob
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:08
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Reaction of the Western Powers.
"I shall do such things......what they are yet I know not......but they shall be the Terrors of the Earth". (King Lear).
Please, no! Not another strongly worded memo!
Anything but that!
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:24
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GlobalNav wrote,

I don't grasp how someone, non-military, gets close enough to these guys to take such a photograph or series of them, so close up and detailed enough to read the details. I can understand that an intelligence operative might have the skills and cajones for such an achievement but a mere civilian, even a journalist?
There is footage of journalists going right up to these soldiers and trying to engage them in conversation. Nothing remarkable about someone taking such an image. It is all about image resolution these days and even with a basic camera the image can be zoomed into. The close in image appear to be a crop of the larger photo.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:26
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The only people seeming to be doing well out of this are the Russians and interflora...

What a spineless bunch of pen pushers we have running the western Governments today, one would doubt Reagan, Kennedy or Thatcher would have fallen over backwards to appease the Russians like this bunch.
All well and good having a meeting, but if the Russians do not turn up, as indeed they didn't, it just makes them all look foolish and Hauge a bigger prat than normal.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:42
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NL. I won't dispute the "spineless pen-pushers" characterization. Trouble is they are exactly the kind of "leaders" who put our precious men and women into harm's way and get nothing for it while they pretend not to be spineless. Most of them never wore the uniform and some who did, did not keep faith with their fellows in arms.

There are real dangers here, and not just for the underdog Ukrainians. So we need to sort out where our true national security interests lie and not ignore them. We must secure our national interests, militarily if necessary, but let's make sure our own men and women are not wasted on the altar of good intentions and poll numbers.

Politicians on both sides of the aisle are clamoring for press attention and all too easily say we must "do something" based on highly speculative and optimistic notions of the "certain" outcome.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 19:58
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I understand that, but I still feel they should have called his bluff early on, the "we will stand back and not get involved" sent the wrong message at the outset which gave him carte blanche to carry on.
One feels the minor incursions at the start into the Government buildings and the airport were to test the water to see what the response would be without committing forces in number. Failure to react gave him the green light to invade, and all the follow up rhetoric about marching into East Ukraine to protect the area were just a ploy to draw the worlds attention away from Crimea, pulling back his troops post exercise stating he would not move into East Ukraine was probably what he had planned in the first place having attained his objectives... And the west just stood by and let it hapoen.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 20:04
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To be honest NutLoose, how many British people care? I would imagine very few people would be willing to risk war with Russia when a number of people in certain parts of the Ukraine seem to want Russian troops there anyhow. The so called Kiev government are of dubious legitimacy. Its likely in our interests to keep out of it and to not upset the economic apple cart with Russia! I would imagine our economic relationship with Russia is far more important to the UK than our economic relationship with Ukraine.

Last edited by Ronald Reagan; 5th Mar 2014 at 20:04. Reason: spelling
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 20:17
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It's not about caring, it's about what is morally right and the legality of agreements we signed to ensure the disposal of the Ukrainian nuclear weapon stockpile, that made the world a safer place but we gave obligations to protect their sovereignty after they gave away that protection. One thinks the chances of Putin doing this if they still had their nuclear weapons would have been negligible.
You say most protesters are for it, the problem with that statement is those Ukrainians against it are probably petrified to go out in public, look what happened to the UN Envoy, also they are not Russians, simply Russian speaking Ukrainians that have been given Russian passports to justify the action as far as I can read into it.

I'm problem wrong, but that's how I read it.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 20:18
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I still feel they should have called his bluff early on, the "we will stand back and not get involved" sent the wrong message at the outset which gave him carte blanche to carry on.
I suspect there are many calculations at play here that have led to the West's apparent intransigence. The first uncomfortable question is was the Yanukovych regime legitimately elected? If so, then how do we feel about its effectively being deposed? Or looking at it another way, if come 2017 Cameron is re-elected and then decides not only to not hold a referendum on EU membership, but actually strengthens and deepens our relationship with the EU contrary to public opinion, would we be right to force him out outside of an election?

But putting politics and ethics to one side, I suspect a large degree of pragmatism is at play as well - especially in Whitehall's calculations (after all, isn't that what Realist foreign policy is effectively all about?)

1. London as a major financial centre with I suspect large amounts of Russian money invested, either through commerce, banks or the PCL property market.

2. The UK's reliance on gas from that region. The govt have arguably got off lightly with a relatively mild winter that has not tested our limited gas supplies & reserves. From a consumer perspective, this has probably contributed to relatively stable wholesale prices, so best not do anything too drastic in case it forces prices up, thereby impacting on inflation figures and the fragile economic recovery.

3. Finally - has anybody looked at a map of the overland route for equipment coming out of Afghanistan? Just how much do we plan to bring back overland coming through Russia and / or its territories or area of influence? Given the lack of cash in Defence, we can't afford to not bring a lot of it back, and as we lack the sort of organic stragegic AT fleet required to do air en masse, then overland is probably at least a consideration at the moment. Best not rock that boat too much - remember the chaos when Pakistan closed the GLOC?

Last edited by Melchett01; 5th Mar 2014 at 20:52.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 20:44
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I'm not sure that leaving Afghanistan across the Oxus is quite the final photograph anyone would want to see spread around - at least there were no photos of the Victorians exiting into Pakistan after unsuccessfully invading Afghanistan.

For a full historical tour, perhaps some materiel could return via Crimea?
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 20:49
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Ukraine is Putin’s, not Russia’s, war
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 21:21
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Folks,

Do get a cup of coffee and wake up!

This whole thing started immediately after Welfare Man took office.....remember terminating the Missile Shield for Poland? Remember the "If I talk nice....they will love me" campaign? Remember the infamous "Reset Button"? Remember the bowing and scraping to the Muslims around the World? Remember the "Red Lines" fiasco? Remember the cutback in our Military Forces? Remember the "Leading from Behind" stupidity? Remember the support of the Muslim Brotherhood? Don't forget how the Syrian thing turned out!

Face it.....we have a hopeless Community Organizer sitting in the Big Chair....and he is as Cowboys would say....."All Hat and No Cattle!"

Also....understand we have another three Years of this Clown to endure!

Russia was seen as being a threat by previous administrations as were the Chinese and Iranians along with the pip squeak in North Korea......yet Welfare Man and his gang of Loons refused to understand or accept that.

China has turned from their Economy....and are now investing in their Military and in time will have a Military that will be a very real threat and dominant power in that part of the World.

Russia will continue with its expansion back into what were USSR Territories as best they can.

Iran will continue to push their Nuclear Agenda.

There is nothing that can be done to force them to cease and desist.

We can make token efforts but in the end....the best we can do is put a small speed bump or two in their way that will at best slow them down for extremely short periods of time.

At this time of great tensions in the World....we continue to cut our Military....refuse to become Energy Indpendent....and waste Trillions of Dollars on Social Welfare Spending that is only intended to keep the Progressives in power.

We are going to reap a terrible harvest one day out of all this.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 21:26
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1) I think worries about gas supplies are somewhat less important now than before. We could probably start importing from the US. So that line of whinging and fear-mongering may not be a good enough excuse.

2) If Russian money is invested in the west then good - lets see how many Russians want to bring it back to the 'safety' of Russia. In any case they are not our major investors so that line of excuses is pretty thin too.

3) They forget that the very fact that they compare personalities is an indication of an unhealthy situation. " They find fault with men who are actually constrained by the will of other people and cannot ponce around to the same degree as the fellows who have whipped their own people into submission.

4) It's really easy for people to argue about what is morally right by comparing what happens in place X with what happens in the west because all you need to do is call someone a president and his gang a parliament and suddenly he is democratic. e.g. Mugabe in power for 33 years entirely democratically if you want to believe it. In general people who argue "if they did this, then he can do that" usually make 2 mistakes:

a) They criticise the west for doing X. When Their favourite dictator does something bad they don't criticise him but say that it's ok because someone in the West "did the same thing." In other words they see the sauce,goose,gander thing as a one-way street.

b) They forget exactly what their favourite dictator does not forget: after the moral argument about who is right in the end we must do what is best for ourselves moral or not. The best thing to do may not be chickening out and hiding it might be to demonstrate a lack of fear which encourages our allies, discourages our enemies and allows us to keep problems far away rather than allowing them to get ever closer.
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Old 5th Mar 2014, 21:49
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... agreements we signed to ensure the disposal of the Ukrainian nuclear weapon stockpile, that made the world a safer place but we gave obligations to protect their sovereignty after they gave away that protection. One thinks the chances of Putin doing this if they still had their nuclear weapons would have been negligible
This is a matter of practical importance.

Not supporting those who voluntarily relenquished their N deterrent sends another signal of "you are only safe from the Powers if you have a nuke."

Interesting twist on the NPT and its ragged implementation and application.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 04:06
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Putin wants a referendum in the Crimea and perhaps other Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine. I think it is a wonderful concession to democratic values. Bravo Putin.

While we're in such a liberal mood why not hold simultaneous referendums in the Russian Republics of Chechnya and Ingushetia?

Oh, Right. Self determination in Russia only works if you're determined to be Russian. Otherwise it's the old jack boot and rifle butt treatment.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 05:26
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Sasless has hit the nail on the head.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 07:48
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I'm curious Ronald, as you appear to have completely bought into the Russian side of this conflict, do you believe that the 'gunmen' on the streets of Crimea are Russian soldiers (as the rest of the world does) or a local self-defence force with no ties whatsoever to Moscow (as Putin says they are)?

I'm just wondering how far your credulity stretches.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 08:21
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RR has been "on the Russian side" of every discussion on this board since he arrived - no matter the circumstances, facts, or who is opposed to Russia in the case.

He has openly stated that the people of the nations of the former Warsaw Pact do NOT have the right to make alliances with western Europe if that upsets the Russians - and similar comments.


One wonders why he lives in Cornwall (if he actually does) instead of in the nation he so obviously wishes to "win" over everyone else.
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 08:36
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"we have a hopeless Community Organizer sitting in the Big Chair.."

a man who has launched far more drone strikes on terrorists than that idiot who previously had the job

I'm still amazed that SASLess and Co seem to be saying we should go to war over Ukraine
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Old 6th Mar 2014, 08:40
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"we have a hopeless Community Organizer sitting in the Big Chair.."

a man who has launched far more drone strikes on terrorists than that idiot who preciously had the job
No, I'm afraid that SASLess won't let Obama take credit for those. Just as in the Bin Laden raid, the 'scores' are down to those who went before him, but the 'losses' are down to Obama.
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