Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 14th Apr 2022, 07:34
  #1241 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,859
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
Good luck! They'll find it another bottomless pit at the the edge of the world that can be taken out at anytime

over the years they've poured cash into S America and Africa and TBH have very little to show for it
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 14th Apr 2022, 17:06
  #1242 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 65
Posts: 7,358
Received 545 Likes on 344 Posts
Originally Posted by Asturias56
Good luck! They'll find it another bottomless pit at the the edge of the world that can be taken out at anytime

over the years they've poured cash into S America and Africa and TBH have very little to show for it
Isn't Tulagi right across Iron Bottom Sound from Guadalcanal?
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2022, 09:46
  #1243 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,859
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
Yes - it was the main Japanese base before the Battle of the Coral Sea. Used to be the Capital of the Solomon Islands until 1942

Sleepy hollow since WW2
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2022, 12:25
  #1244 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: cowtown
Posts: 926
Received 89 Likes on 65 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
https://thepressfree.com/the-chinese...tegic-islands/

The Chinese companies trying to buy strategic islands
Their are probably going to build a Casino , so their floating casinos can visit and gamble . They must be feeling lucky . After buying so many politicians and providing the politicians family members with so many great business opportunities. They even managed to get Top generals on the phone 24/7 . A small island is nice , but owning a swamp might be more practical and cheaper than war .
fitliker is offline  
Old 15th Apr 2022, 17:57
  #1245 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2022
Location: Humdrum of Caledonia
Posts: 13
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Putting a Chinse stamp of ownership upon islands which they believe they have practically owned for half a millennium or more might be quite an emotional thing, for them..
Prunus Dessicata is offline  
Old 16th Apr 2022, 08:22
  #1246 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,859
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
- well that's one way of getting volunteers to come .............
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 16th Apr 2022, 17:10
  #1247 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 65
Posts: 7,358
Received 545 Likes on 344 Posts
Originally Posted by Asturias56
Yes - it was the main Japanese base before the Battle of the Coral Sea. Used to be the Capital of the Solomon Islands until 1942
Sleepy hollow since WW2
^^ Those who fail to learn the lessons of history, etc.
Among other reasons, the US Marines landed on Guadalcanal to take over/preempt use of the Japanese airfield being built there. (FWIW, Tulagi was the more direct objective of Operation Watchtower, but once the airfield's construction became evident the scope of the operation expanded).
The Imperial Japanese Navy (IJN) had occupied Tulagi in May and had constructed a seaplane base nearby. Allied concern grew when, in early July, the IJN began constructing a large airfield at Lunga Point on nearby Guadalcanal – from such a base Japanese long-range bombers would threaten the sea lines of communication from the West Coast of the Americas to the populous East Coast of Australia.
Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 23rd Apr 2022, 05:51
  #1248 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 18,083
Received 2,136 Likes on 967 Posts
Well that lesson from the UKR war didn’t take long to sink in. I presume they were buying some, but the number and speed of deployment seems very large and rapid.

Taiwan setting up 20-25 squadrons to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles ? Alert 5

Taiwan setting up 20-25 squadrons to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles

Taiwan is in the process of standing up between 20 to 25 squadrons in its navy to operate three types of anti-ship missiles.

Media reports in Taiwan say these units will be equipped with Hsiung Feng II, Hsiung Feng III, extended-range Hsiung Feng III, and Harpoon missiles in the future.

To support these units, new facilities such as ammunition depots, a driver training center, a maintenance center, and garages, will be built over the next few years.

The strategy will be to send these units to mountainous areas and tunnels during wartime to protect them against incoming attacks.

These squadrons are expected to be fully established by 2026.

For more information, hit the Source below

Source


ORAC is offline  
Old 23rd Apr 2022, 12:51
  #1249 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,859
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
Couple of articles in the Economist this week about the need for Taiwan to adopt the strategy promulgated there about 15 years ago of a lot more "small" weapons (as in Ukraine) and fewer big ticket items from the USA

Asturias56 is offline  
Old 24th Apr 2022, 08:19
  #1250 (permalink)  
fdr
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: 3rd Rock, #29B
Posts: 2,985
Received 926 Likes on 271 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
Well that lesson from the UKR war didn’t take long to sink in. I presume they were buying some, but the number and speed of deployment seems very large and rapid.

Taiwan setting up 20-25 squadrons to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles
Taiwan is in the process of standing up between 20 to 25 squadrons in its navy to operate three types of anti-ship missiles.
Media reports in Taiwan say these units will be equipped with Hsiung Feng II, Hsiung Feng III, extended-range Hsiung Feng III, and Harpoon missiles in the future.
To support these units, new facilities such as ammunition depots, a driver training center, a maintenance center, and garages, will be built over the next few years.
The strategy will be to send these units to mountainous areas and tunnels during wartime to protect them against incoming attacks.
These squadrons are expected to be fully established by 2026.
If anyone can stand up to an aggressor effectively it would be Taiwan. They are fairly well prepared but were aiming towards symmetrical response which is a difficult proposition. They need to outthink rather than out supply chain the Chinese. Once the noise starts there is limited resupply capacity, so they need a very large ready reserve distributed across the island in all of the hideouts and bomb shelters. China can interdict resupply so that has to be on side. OTOH, China has the highest amount of debt of any country in the world, and it continues to get worse, the building bubble has been coming since 1995. Yes it arbitraged its way into the consumer market of the USA and Europe, but it has produced affluence of its domestic market through the effects of the property bubble, and that has started to show signs of imminent collapse. A fantastic time to alienate all of the rest of your customers, just like Basil Fawlty.

Taiwan has spent a lot on conventional defense forces, and they will not survive unscathed the first minutes of an attack, so the asymmetric means of fighting would seem to offer a better likelihood of a successful defense.

China has an economic and demographic problem, that may increase the potential of a bad day out. Much like Putin, but China also has an increasing potential to have a food shortage later this year, and if coupled with a financial bubble collapses, a distraction might look appealing which usually is regretted later.
fdr is offline  
Old 25th Apr 2022, 07:02
  #1251 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,859
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
"They need to outthink rather than out supply chain the Chinese. Once the noise starts there is limited resupply capacity, so they need a very large ready reserve distributed across the island in all of the hideouts and bomb shelters"

Agreed - it might be a week before the anyone agrees to help and then it's a long way and the Chinese will do their damnedest to isolate them so large stocks are a necessity

Interesting you mention the possibility of economic bubbles fdr - the Govt is spending a lot of money propping up the housing market apparently all ads to the strain
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 26th Apr 2022, 20:04
  #1252 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 18,083
Received 2,136 Likes on 967 Posts
Wow….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...box=1650947312

US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands
ORAC is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 01:34
  #1253 (permalink)  
fdr
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: 3rd Rock, #29B
Posts: 2,985
Received 926 Likes on 271 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
Wow….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...box=1650947312

US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands
Odd world we live in at present.

Solomon Islands is an odd place. The sort of oddities are one politican who was jailed for 18 months for assault and possession of a deadly weapon, and then after release he became the head of the police force. Went on to be Minister of foreign affairs, and got dismissed from that sometime later. Now still on board of directors for govt instrumentalities.

The China-SOL matter looked clear-cut at first but turns out that SOL had been working on recognition of TWN, and a certain country sent diplomats to TWN, and the TWN-SOL deal fell flat on its face. That was pretty disappointing that the certain country involved would act in such a way, as they also would wish to recognize TWN but are too busy groveling themselves to the PRC.

Law and order in SOL has it's moments, sometimes it is quiet, on other occasions, there is a stirring of the pot and stuff happens.

With the blatant aggression in the SCS and SOJ/East Sea by PRC from PLAAF and PLAN, the region of the South Pacific gets an unwelcome destabilization by the PRC-SOL agreement and the use by PLAN and possibly the PLAAF of Solomon Islands as a forward operating base.
fdr is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 01:53
  #1254 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: A better place.
Posts: 2,326
Received 26 Likes on 18 Posts
Seems to indicate that if permanent PLAN or PLAAF facilities looked likely to be set up, the Solomons might face a US blockade!
tartare is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 07:20
  #1255 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 8,859
Received 437 Likes on 263 Posts
"Law and order in SOL has it's moments, sometimes it is quiet, on other occasions, there is a stirring of the pot and stuff happens."

Much the same across whole region from Timor Leste to Fiji - these are not stable entities really

TBH it's all a very small pot with very few people. The Chinese can build a base in the Solomon's but it won't do them any good and it can be taken out very quickly if there's a need - just look at the supply line !
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 17:43
  #1256 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Canada
Age: 63
Posts: 5,280
Received 159 Likes on 74 Posts
It will be very interesting to see what lessons the PLA learns from the Russian failures in Ukraine. The current PLA force structure has all off the problems the Russian military has and in addition lacks any senior officers with actual war fighting experience.

The next few years will be very telling. A major restructuring of the PLA into modern agile, joint units led by commanders with the autonomy to adapt to battlefield conditions in real time would be a very worryingly development for Taiwan.

I think the chance of that happening is low. The downside of the status quo is military senior leaders chosen for political fealty, not military competence and who will tell Xi only what he wants to hear, which is exactly how Putin vastly over committed with the Ukraine invasion.

Unfortunately either way the outlook for Taiwan is not great. The only difference is that the current PLA is unlikely to better than Russia is doing in Ukraine. However win, lose or draw Taiwan will be devastated.
Big Pistons Forever is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 18:07
  #1257 (permalink)  
fdr
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: 3rd Rock, #29B
Posts: 2,985
Received 926 Likes on 271 Posts
Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
It will be very interesting to see what lessons the PLA learns from the Russian failures in Ukraine. The current PLA force structure has all off the problems the Russian military has and in addition lacks any senior officers with actual war fighting experience.

The next few years will be very telling. A major restructuring of the PLA into modern agile, joint units led by commanders with the autonomy to adapt to battlefield conditions in real time would be a very worryingly development for Taiwan.

I think the chance of that happening is low. The downside of the status quo is military senior leaders chosen for political fealty, not military competence and who will tell Xi only what he wants to hear, which is exactly how Putin vastly over committed with the Ukraine invasion.

Unfortunately either way the outlook for Taiwan is not great. The only difference is that the current PLA is unlikely to better than Russia is doing in Ukraine. However win, lose or draw Taiwan will be devastated.

Political fealty is one of the major takeaways for China. Xi is not stupid, but he has made a system that is effectively blind due to his setup as Emperor.
TWN is not slow on the uptake. They would do well to add MANPADS by the gross distributed within the whole area of the country, along with ATWs.
Long term I can see a future for TWN, PRC is heading over a cliff and will have real issues within its own kingdom, from food insecurity, property bubble collapse, the whole house of cards deal, demographics, a decline in globalization that appears to be well underway from the last few years of logistical failures. TWN is smart enough and driven to maintain a defense that can outlast Xii's hold on power.

Ukraine is a learning opportunity all round, assuming that it is survived.
fdr is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 19:47
  #1258 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: surfing, watching for sharks
Posts: 4,097
Received 62 Likes on 40 Posts
Originally Posted by fdr
Political fealty is one of the major takeaways for China. Xi is not stupid, but he has made a system that is effectively blind due to his setup as Emperor.
TWN is not slow on the uptake. They would do well to add MANPADS by the gross distributed within the whole area of the country, along with ATWs.
Long term I can see a future for TWN, PRC is heading over a cliff and will have real issues within its own kingdom, from food insecurity, property bubble collapse, the whole house of cards deal, demographics, a decline in globalization that appears to be well underway from the last few years of logistical failures. TWN is smart enough and driven to maintain a defense that can outlast Xii's hold on power.

Ukraine is a learning opportunity all round, assuming that it is survived.
Hopefully a cautionary tale as well, militarily, economically and geo-politically. Can’t imagine Xi wanting China to be marginalized the way Russia has become.
West Coast is offline  
Old 27th Apr 2022, 23:39
  #1259 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Canada
Age: 63
Posts: 5,280
Received 159 Likes on 74 Posts
If Xi tells his Generals to invade Taiwan are they going say “Bad idea boss” or “Yes Sir ! “…….
Big Pistons Forever is offline  
Old 28th Apr 2022, 03:13
  #1260 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
Posts: 18,319
Received 600 Likes on 253 Posts
Somehow I just do not see a Second Campaign to fight over an unwanted Airbase on Guadalcanal.

It was a close run thing the first time against a much less capable Military.

SASless is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.