Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
It will be very interesting to see what lessons the PLA learns from the Russian failures in Ukraine. The current PLA force structure has all off the problems the Russian military has and in addition lacks any senior officers with actual war fighting experience.
The next few years will be very telling. A major restructuring of the PLA into modern agile, joint units led by commanders with the autonomy to adapt to battlefield conditions in real time would be a very worryingly development for Taiwan.
I think the chance of that happening is low. The downside of the status quo is military senior leaders chosen for political fealty, not military competence and who will tell Xi only what he wants to hear, which is exactly how Putin vastly over committed with the Ukraine invasion.
Unfortunately either way the outlook for Taiwan is not great. The only difference is that the current PLA is unlikely to better than Russia is doing in Ukraine. However win, lose or draw Taiwan will be devastated.
Political fealty is one of the major takeaways for China. Xi is not stupid, but he has made a system that is effectively blind due to his setup as Emperor.
TWN is not slow on the uptake. They would do well to add MANPADS by the gross distributed within the whole area of the country, along with ATWs.
Long term I can see a future for TWN, PRC is heading over a cliff and will have real issues within its own kingdom, from food insecurity, property bubble collapse, the whole house of cards deal, demographics, a decline in globalization that appears to be well underway from the last few years of logistical failures. TWN is smart enough and driven to maintain a defense that can outlast Xii's hold on power.
Ukraine is a learning opportunity all round, assuming that it is survived.