The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Evertonian
Sweet, they can have Christmas Island. Except, don't forget the man made islands full of military junk in the SCS of course. I'll sleep well tonight. Oh, and suffer in ya jocks Helsinki!
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...ands-gbfmm7rfs
Philippines warns China after boats are hit by water cannon off disputed islands
The Philippines furiously warned China to “back off” after Chinese coastguard vessels used water cannon to push back vessels supplying a remote military base in the South China Sea claimed by Beijing.
The Philippines foreign minister hinted that Manila was willing to invoke its military defence treaty with the United States to defend the passage to its troops stationed on Second Thomas Shoal. It is one of the Spratly Islands, a scattered range of reefs, sandbanks and islets whose rich fishing grounds and strategic position mean they are claimed in whole or part by six governments in the region.
“Fortunately, no one was hurt; but our boats had to abort their resupply mission,” said Teodoro Locsin about the incident on Tuesday. “I have conveyed in the strongest terms . . . our outrage, condemnation and protest of the incident. I reminded China that a public vessel is covered by the Philippines-United States Mutual Defence Treaty.”
Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines, is defended by a small detachment of marines living on the Sierra Madre, a rusting Second World War naval ship, which was deliberately run aground there by the Philippines in 1999 to strengthen its claim. Two wooden vessels carrying supplies to the Philippines marines were sprayed with powerful jets of water for an hour, causing minor damage to one of them and forcing their retreat.
“The acts of the Chinese coastguard vessels are illegal,” Locsin said. “China has no law enforcement rights in and around these areas. They must take heed and back off.” He added: “The Philippines will continue to provide supplies to our troops in Ayungin Shoal. We do not ask permission to do what we need to do in our territory.”
In Beijing the spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, Zhao Lijian, said that the Chinese coastguard “upheld China’s sovereignty” after Philippine ships entered Chinese territorial waters without permission……
Locsin’s invocation of the Philippines’ treaty with the US is a reminder of ways in which Washington could be dragged into a conflict over tiny specks of territory far from the American homeland.….
Philippines warns China after boats are hit by water cannon off disputed islands
The Philippines furiously warned China to “back off” after Chinese coastguard vessels used water cannon to push back vessels supplying a remote military base in the South China Sea claimed by Beijing.
The Philippines foreign minister hinted that Manila was willing to invoke its military defence treaty with the United States to defend the passage to its troops stationed on Second Thomas Shoal. It is one of the Spratly Islands, a scattered range of reefs, sandbanks and islets whose rich fishing grounds and strategic position mean they are claimed in whole or part by six governments in the region.
“Fortunately, no one was hurt; but our boats had to abort their resupply mission,” said Teodoro Locsin about the incident on Tuesday. “I have conveyed in the strongest terms . . . our outrage, condemnation and protest of the incident. I reminded China that a public vessel is covered by the Philippines-United States Mutual Defence Treaty.”
Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines, is defended by a small detachment of marines living on the Sierra Madre, a rusting Second World War naval ship, which was deliberately run aground there by the Philippines in 1999 to strengthen its claim. Two wooden vessels carrying supplies to the Philippines marines were sprayed with powerful jets of water for an hour, causing minor damage to one of them and forcing their retreat.
“The acts of the Chinese coastguard vessels are illegal,” Locsin said. “China has no law enforcement rights in and around these areas. They must take heed and back off.” He added: “The Philippines will continue to provide supplies to our troops in Ayungin Shoal. We do not ask permission to do what we need to do in our territory.”
In Beijing the spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, Zhao Lijian, said that the Chinese coastguard “upheld China’s sovereignty” after Philippine ships entered Chinese territorial waters without permission……
Locsin’s invocation of the Philippines’ treaty with the US is a reminder of ways in which Washington could be dragged into a conflict over tiny specks of territory far from the American homeland.….
China bully tactics once again. “What’s mine is mine, and what’s yours is mine too, including the whole school and playground.”
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ligence-report
Work on ‘Chinese military base’ in UAE abandoned after US intervenes
US intelligence agencies found evidence this year of construction work on what they believed was a secret Chinese military facility in the United Arab Emirates, which was stopped after Washington’s intervention, according to a report on Friday.
The Wall Street Journal reported that satellite imagery of the port of Khalifa had revealed suspicious construction work inside a container terminal built and operated by a Chinese shipping corporation, Cosco.
The evidence included huge excavations apparently for a multi-storey building and the fact that the site was covered in an apparent attempt to evade scrutiny……
On the same day, the state department warned Beijing the US would intervene to defend Philippines ships in the event of an armed Chinese attack, following an incident in which Chinese naval vessels used water cannon against Philippine resupply boats in the South China Sea.
The state department spokesman, Ned Price, called the Chinese action “dangerous, provocative, and unjustified”.
Beijing “should not interfere with lawful Philippine activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone”, Price said in a statement. “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defense commitments.”…..
Work on ‘Chinese military base’ in UAE abandoned after US intervenes
US intelligence agencies found evidence this year of construction work on what they believed was a secret Chinese military facility in the United Arab Emirates, which was stopped after Washington’s intervention, according to a report on Friday.
The Wall Street Journal reported that satellite imagery of the port of Khalifa had revealed suspicious construction work inside a container terminal built and operated by a Chinese shipping corporation, Cosco.
The evidence included huge excavations apparently for a multi-storey building and the fact that the site was covered in an apparent attempt to evade scrutiny……
On the same day, the state department warned Beijing the US would intervene to defend Philippines ships in the event of an armed Chinese attack, following an incident in which Chinese naval vessels used water cannon against Philippine resupply boats in the South China Sea.
The state department spokesman, Ned Price, called the Chinese action “dangerous, provocative, and unjustified”.
Beijing “should not interfere with lawful Philippine activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone”, Price said in a statement. “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defense commitments.”…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...box=1637907134
‘Mistakes of the 1930s’: Peter Dutton ramps up China rhetoric as Keating calls him a ‘dangerous personality’
‘Mistakes of the 1930s’: Peter Dutton ramps up China rhetoric as Keating calls him a ‘dangerous personality’
ORAC, that's a different chart from the original tweet... (?)
Lengthy article, photos & map etc in The Times evening update.
Pentagon to expand military presence in the Pacific as China picks up the pace
Pentagon to expand military presence in the Pacific as China picks up the pace
Navy Commander calls for more aircraft carriers
US Navy commander calls for more aircraft carriers in Pacific to dissuade China, Russia from conflict (msn.com)
US Navy commander calls for more aircraft carriers in Pacific to dissuade China, Russia from conflict The commander of the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet has called for more aircraft carriers in the Pacific to dissuade China and Russia from conflict.
Vice Adm. Karl Thomas made the comment after the U.S. concluded a 10-day naval exercise with Japan, Australia, Canada and Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Thomas, when asked about the threat from China and Russia, said it was important to show a united front to "other nations that might be more aggressive and authoritarian," the newspaper reported.
He added that the U.S. and allies should use joint exercises to "deter aggression from some of these nations that are showing burgeoning strength [and] tell these nations that maybe today is not the day."
Earlier this month, the U.S. Naval Institute said that China was building mock-ups of U.S. Navy ships as part of a new target range developed by the People's Liberation Army.
China commissioned its first domestically built aircraft carrier in late 2019, and a second carrier is expected to enter service by 2024, the Pentagon said in its annual report to Congress.
Russia, meanwhile, announced Monday that it successfully tested a Zircon cruise missile, which is believed to fly at more than five times the speed of sound, adding to concerns regarding Moscow's buildup of troops near its border with Ukraine.
Thomas made the remarks at the conclusion of the annual AnnualEX naval exercise, which began on Nov. 21 in the Philippine Sea off the coast of Japan.
The U.S. Navy was joined by the Royal Australian Navy, Royal Canadian Navy, German Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.
Thomas said the combined forces represent "an incredible amount of power," the Journal reported, adding "when we think about how we might fight, it's a large water space, and four aircraft carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better."
US Navy commander calls for more aircraft carriers in Pacific to dissuade China, Russia from conflict The commander of the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet has called for more aircraft carriers in the Pacific to dissuade China and Russia from conflict.
Vice Adm. Karl Thomas made the comment after the U.S. concluded a 10-day naval exercise with Japan, Australia, Canada and Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Thomas, when asked about the threat from China and Russia, said it was important to show a united front to "other nations that might be more aggressive and authoritarian," the newspaper reported.
He added that the U.S. and allies should use joint exercises to "deter aggression from some of these nations that are showing burgeoning strength [and] tell these nations that maybe today is not the day."
Earlier this month, the U.S. Naval Institute said that China was building mock-ups of U.S. Navy ships as part of a new target range developed by the People's Liberation Army.
China commissioned its first domestically built aircraft carrier in late 2019, and a second carrier is expected to enter service by 2024, the Pentagon said in its annual report to Congress.
Russia, meanwhile, announced Monday that it successfully tested a Zircon cruise missile, which is believed to fly at more than five times the speed of sound, adding to concerns regarding Moscow's buildup of troops near its border with Ukraine.
Thomas made the remarks at the conclusion of the annual AnnualEX naval exercise, which began on Nov. 21 in the Philippine Sea off the coast of Japan.
The U.S. Navy was joined by the Royal Australian Navy, Royal Canadian Navy, German Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.
Thomas said the combined forces represent "an incredible amount of power," the Journal reported, adding "when we think about how we might fight, it's a large water space, and four aircraft carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better."
Article, diagram & video in The Times
Japan invests in railgun to shoot down North Korea missiles
Click the link for the full article etc.
Japan invests in railgun to shoot down North Korea missiles
Japan is spending tens of millions of pounds on an electromagnetic gun that fires supersonic missiles to try to hit even faster missiles deployed by North Korea, China and Russia.
Tokyo’s project has been given new impetus by advances in hypersonic weaponry, such as the short-range missile fired by North Korea into the Sea of Japan on Monday.
Tokyo’s project has been given new impetus by advances in hypersonic weaponry, such as the short-range missile fired by North Korea into the Sea of Japan on Monday.
Also in The Times.
Combat jet crash shakes Taiwan’s hopes of fighting off China in the air
Sadly it seems an 'RIP' is needed.
Combat jet crash shakes Taiwan’s hopes of fighting off China in the air
One of Taiwan’s most advanced fighter jets crashed into the sea during combat training yesterday, dealing a blow to the self-governed island’s hope of using the warplanes to boost its defence against rising threats from Beijing.
Rescuers found debris of the F-16V fighter this morning, but they were yet to locate its pilot, Captain Chen Yi.
The jet disappeared from radar screens at 3.23 pm on Tuesday, about 30 minutes after it took off from Chiayi Air Base in the southwest on a routine training mission with one other aircraft. Weather conditions were good and there was high visibility at the time.
The island has since grounded all of its 140 F-16s to conduct safety checks, and Tsai Ing-wen, the president, ordered an investigation into the crash, the first involving a jet of its kind.
Taiwan has signed a deal with Lockheed Martin, the US defence firm, to upgrade all its 141 F-16A/B fighter jets by 2023 as the island seeks to boost its defence capabilities against China, which considers the island part of its own territory and has threatened to unify with it, by force if necessary, to achieve national unity.
Since September 2020, China’s air force has been sending warplanes into airspace near the island almost on a daily basis. In response, Taiwan is in talks with Washington, which has a security pact to supply the island with sufficient military hardware and technology to fend off any mainland invasion, to upgrade its equipment and strengthen combat training.
After news of the crash emerged, Beijing dismissed the Taiwan government as “not knowing its abilities” in its attempt to seek independence by force.
“It will not only seriously damage the well-being of the Taiwanese people but will also exacerbate tensions and turmoil in the Taiwan Strait, pushing the Taiwanese people into a dangerous situation,” Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said yesterday.
Rescuers found debris of the F-16V fighter this morning, but they were yet to locate its pilot, Captain Chen Yi.
The jet disappeared from radar screens at 3.23 pm on Tuesday, about 30 minutes after it took off from Chiayi Air Base in the southwest on a routine training mission with one other aircraft. Weather conditions were good and there was high visibility at the time.
The island has since grounded all of its 140 F-16s to conduct safety checks, and Tsai Ing-wen, the president, ordered an investigation into the crash, the first involving a jet of its kind.
Taiwan has signed a deal with Lockheed Martin, the US defence firm, to upgrade all its 141 F-16A/B fighter jets by 2023 as the island seeks to boost its defence capabilities against China, which considers the island part of its own territory and has threatened to unify with it, by force if necessary, to achieve national unity.
Since September 2020, China’s air force has been sending warplanes into airspace near the island almost on a daily basis. In response, Taiwan is in talks with Washington, which has a security pact to supply the island with sufficient military hardware and technology to fend off any mainland invasion, to upgrade its equipment and strengthen combat training.
After news of the crash emerged, Beijing dismissed the Taiwan government as “not knowing its abilities” in its attempt to seek independence by force.
“It will not only seriously damage the well-being of the Taiwanese people but will also exacerbate tensions and turmoil in the Taiwan Strait, pushing the Taiwanese people into a dangerous situation,” Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said yesterday.
From The Economist, 15th Jan 2022
In their China column, Chaguan , under the headline America and China are one military accident away from disaster
https://www.economist.com/china/2022...-from-disaster
The full article is past the paywall, but it is included in full as part of this weeks Editors Picks free podcast, at the 18:00 mark
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2...rpower-rivalry
JAS
In their China column, Chaguan , under the headline America and China are one military accident away from disaster
In Beijing, scholars and officials talk of when, not whether another accident will occur. Then they wonder how such a crisis would be managed, by two countries locked in open ideological competition and stalked by rising nationalism.
The last incident involved a collision between a Chinese navy fighter and an American spy plane, high over the South China Sea on April 1st 2001. The Chinese pilot died after his jet broke apart. Badly damaged, America’s naval reconnaissance plane, a lumbering, propeller-driven EP-3 with 24 crew aboard, limped to a Chinese military airfield on the tropical island of Hainan, landing without permission.
The last incident involved a collision between a Chinese navy fighter and an American spy plane, high over the South China Sea on April 1st 2001. The Chinese pilot died after his jet broke apart. Badly damaged, America’s naval reconnaissance plane, a lumbering, propeller-driven EP-3 with 24 crew aboard, limped to a Chinese military airfield on the tropical island of Hainan, landing without permission.
The full article is past the paywall, but it is included in full as part of this weeks Editors Picks free podcast, at the 18:00 mark
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2...rpower-rivalry
JAS
Administrator
This is news that is aviation specific.
China flies 39 warplanes towards Taiwan as tensions with island rise
It appears to be a bit of muscle flexing or probing, to see what Taiwan's radar and air defense units do.
China flies 39 warplanes towards Taiwan as tensions with island rise
It appears to be a bit of muscle flexing or probing, to see what Taiwan's radar and air defense units do.
China Planned Taiwan Invasion in Fall, Alleged Russian Intel Leak Claims (msn.com)Taiwan's top diplomat said he couldn't speak on the authenticity of a purported Russian intelligence document that claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping had plans to annex the island nation this fall.
Joseph Wu, Taiwan's minister of foreign affairs, said on Wednesday that his country would have to prepare regardless. "No matter if or when China decides to attack us, we must always be ready to defend ourselves," he told reporters in Taipei.
During a defense committee hearing in the island's legislature, Wu told lawmakers that he was aware of media reports about the document said to be written by an anonymous analyst with Russia's Federal Security Service calling themself "Wind of Change." The foreign minister said he wasn't able to verify the alleged FSB document, but said Taiwan's own intelligence services were closely monitoring relevant chatter.
The letter in question is part of a series published by France-based Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin, a human rights lawyer who runs gulagu-net.ru, a website documenting abuses in Russian jails. Osechkin claims to have received seven letters since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The FSB whistleblower has painted a detailed picture of fear and chaos inside Russia's principal intelligence service, where apparently none but a select few were aware of Putin's plans.
Christo Grozev, the executive director of investigative journalism group Bellingcat, said earlier this month that his FSB contacts believe the whistleblower to be authentic, even if they didn't agree with the conclusions of his analysis.
In the fourth letter to Osechkin, dated March 9, the author describes the difficult position in which Moscow has put Beijing because of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, a move that united the West and turned Russia into such a pariah that China would find it hard to offer support.
"Because of the war, Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries that the United States can easily push sanctions against China, at least with the Europeans, if it risks circumventing the sanctions on Russia," the letter read. "China depends on exports so much that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices…this would be almost a fatal blow."
The whistleblower continued: "Not only that: Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms."
The author concludes that Moscow's actions had inadvertently trapped Beijing, forcing the Chinese leadership to scuttle its own invasion plans.
While Newsweek wasn't able to independently verify the authenticity of the FSB letter, it's worth noting that the information about China's timeline would contradict Taiwan's own intelligence on the subject.
In October 2021, months into Russia's troop buildup along Ukraine's borders, Taipei's chief of intelligence, Chen Ming-tong, told lawmakers that, barring an unexpected contingency, an attack by China wasn't likely in the next three years, until after Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen leaves office.
A Chinese amphibious invasion in fall would also go against conventional military thinking, which takes into account unfavorable weather conditions across the Taiwan Strait throughout the summer and at least through September.
The Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress, where Xi is expecting to secure a third term, is also scheduled for fall and could begin in October or November.
Joseph Wu, Taiwan's minister of foreign affairs, said on Wednesday that his country would have to prepare regardless. "No matter if or when China decides to attack us, we must always be ready to defend ourselves," he told reporters in Taipei.
During a defense committee hearing in the island's legislature, Wu told lawmakers that he was aware of media reports about the document said to be written by an anonymous analyst with Russia's Federal Security Service calling themself "Wind of Change." The foreign minister said he wasn't able to verify the alleged FSB document, but said Taiwan's own intelligence services were closely monitoring relevant chatter.
The letter in question is part of a series published by France-based Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin, a human rights lawyer who runs gulagu-net.ru, a website documenting abuses in Russian jails. Osechkin claims to have received seven letters since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The FSB whistleblower has painted a detailed picture of fear and chaos inside Russia's principal intelligence service, where apparently none but a select few were aware of Putin's plans.
Christo Grozev, the executive director of investigative journalism group Bellingcat, said earlier this month that his FSB contacts believe the whistleblower to be authentic, even if they didn't agree with the conclusions of his analysis.
In the fourth letter to Osechkin, dated March 9, the author describes the difficult position in which Moscow has put Beijing because of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, a move that united the West and turned Russia into such a pariah that China would find it hard to offer support.
"Because of the war, Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries that the United States can easily push sanctions against China, at least with the Europeans, if it risks circumventing the sanctions on Russia," the letter read. "China depends on exports so much that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices…this would be almost a fatal blow."
The whistleblower continued: "Not only that: Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms."
The author concludes that Moscow's actions had inadvertently trapped Beijing, forcing the Chinese leadership to scuttle its own invasion plans.
While Newsweek wasn't able to independently verify the authenticity of the FSB letter, it's worth noting that the information about China's timeline would contradict Taiwan's own intelligence on the subject.
In October 2021, months into Russia's troop buildup along Ukraine's borders, Taipei's chief of intelligence, Chen Ming-tong, told lawmakers that, barring an unexpected contingency, an attack by China wasn't likely in the next three years, until after Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen leaves office.
A Chinese amphibious invasion in fall would also go against conventional military thinking, which takes into account unfavorable weather conditions across the Taiwan Strait throughout the summer and at least through September.
The Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress, where Xi is expecting to secure a third term, is also scheduled for fall and could begin in October or November.
From The Times today.
US navy boosts presence in South China Sea with expeditionary base
Click the link for the full article.
US navy boosts presence in South China Sea with expeditionary base
A US navy expeditionary “base” has entered the disputed waters of the South China Sea for the first time, a think tank based in Beijing has claimed.
Citing commercial satellite imagery, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) tweeted that the USS Miguel Keith, a Lewis B Puller-class expeditionary mobile base, and a guided missile destroyer, had entered the contested sea on Monday. It said this was the first time the amphibious base had entered the sea since the ship was deployed to the western Pacific last October.
The US navy is yet to confirm the report. China’s foreign ministry has not responded, but Chinese analysts told the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, that the presence of the 240-metre, 90,000-tonne logistics vessel, which can land heavy helicopters and work as a command and control centre, was alarming.
“China should pay close attention to the USS Miguel Keith’s movements and figure out ways to deal with it, because its presence in the South China Sea could significantly enhance the US military’s operational capabilities in the region,” an unnamed military expert told the newspaper.
The SCSPI said the warship, a new type of strategic platform, was likely to join more military drills and events in the South China Sea.
Citing commercial satellite imagery, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) tweeted that the USS Miguel Keith, a Lewis B Puller-class expeditionary mobile base, and a guided missile destroyer, had entered the contested sea on Monday. It said this was the first time the amphibious base had entered the sea since the ship was deployed to the western Pacific last October.
The US navy is yet to confirm the report. China’s foreign ministry has not responded, but Chinese analysts told the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, that the presence of the 240-metre, 90,000-tonne logistics vessel, which can land heavy helicopters and work as a command and control centre, was alarming.
“China should pay close attention to the USS Miguel Keith’s movements and figure out ways to deal with it, because its presence in the South China Sea could significantly enhance the US military’s operational capabilities in the region,” an unnamed military expert told the newspaper.
The SCSPI said the warship, a new type of strategic platform, was likely to join more military drills and events in the South China Sea.