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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 23rd Oct 2021, 09:54
  #1161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.
Maybe a complete and unlimited Economic Embargo by the whole Western World? Would lead to a total Implosion of China within less than 5 Years.
But while I consider a war theoretically possible I can't fathom the Ultimate Measure of an all- out Economic Embargo (I feel this extreme measure would only be taken as a next step after instant sunshine).
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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 10:31
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Originally Posted by West Coast
I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.
It might be wise to assume that Taiwan has the capability to become a nuclear weapons state extremely rapidly if circumstances were to require this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan...ss_destruction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan
https://www.nti.org/countries/taiwan...n%20the%20past.
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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 15:41
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
It might be wise to assume that Taiwan has the capability to become a nuclear weapons state extremely rapidly if circumstances were to require this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan...ss_destruction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan
https://www.nti.org/countries/taiwan...n%20the%20past.
Arguments could be simultaneously that Taiwan building/obtaining the bomb would either seal their fate or ensure their continued existence. They and Japan both have the technical wherewithal to make it happen.
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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 15:55
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China has said in the past that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a trigger for invasion.
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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 16:17
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy
China has said in the past that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a trigger for invasion.
Taiwan’s window of opportunity to acquire the bomb is closing. From what’s available in the public realm, it seems a Chinese invasion wouldn’t be successful for about another five years or so. Some more ship, more airplanes, more missiles, etc.


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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 16:22
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Originally Posted by West Coast
I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.
An invasion of Taiwan will be no cakewalk for China even if the US does not intervene with a direct military response. I can see no conventional war plan that would not result in massive casualties on both sides. Even if China can successfully invade and hold the coast the inland topography is ideally suited to maintain a long and ugly insurgency against the invading force. China is obsessed with looking strong, a Vietnam scenario on their doorstep is the opposite of that. Finally the PLA still has a huge senior leadership problem. When most of your senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over Military acumen you don't usually get a good result...
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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 17:55
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy
China has said in the past that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a trigger for invasion.
Normally the flash to bang time is important. This might be one of the occasions where the bang to flash time is more important.
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Old 23rd Oct 2021, 22:50
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
An invasion of Taiwan will be no cakewalk for China even if the US does not intervene with a direct military response. I can see no conventional war plan that would not result in massive casualties on both sides. Even if China can successfully invade and hold the coast the inland topography is ideally suited to maintain a long and ugly insurgency against the invading force. China is obsessed with looking strong, a Vietnam scenario on their doorstep is the opposite of that. Finally the PLA still has a huge senior leadership problem. When most of your senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over Military acumen you don't usually get a good result...
Surely that is no different from the current US policy, exemplified by Gen Milley. Possibly that sets up a WW! situation of senior ineptitude on one side offset by senior incompetence on the other.
More generally, what is the rush and why act militarily? China is a massive market at Taiwan's doorstep that will not go away and Xi is not immortal. While civil wars are not unprecedented in China, all Chinese are conscious of their ruinous impacts.
In ten years, China will be military at least a peer to the US, working off a several fold larger industrial base. Plus Belt and Road will have spread Chinese influence much more extensively than at present.
Taiwan is run by pragmatists, one should expect them to react pragmatically to these changing circumstances.
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Old 24th Oct 2021, 07:32
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Some good points etufdiant - but no leader of China can suddenly do a volte face on Taiwan - it's hardwired into the system

Trouble is with Xi is that he talks big - in the past the leadership were happy to take the long view, expecting unification "sometime"

A far wiser course for all sides IMHO

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Old 24th Oct 2021, 09:44
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Some good points etufdiant - but no leader of China can suddenly do a volte face on Taiwan - it's hardwired into the system
Trouble is with Xi is that he talks big - in the past the leadership were happy to take the long view, expecting unification "sometime"
That's the mysterious part: Where the hell is the sudden rush coming from? Is Xi nervous that a collapse of the Chinese Bubble (Stock markets, Real estate/Housing + Industrial base moving to cheaper Countries) is getting nearer?

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Old 24th Oct 2021, 13:05
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.I agree, Xi has to be very nervous, if he starts anything there would almost certainly be a large number of countries defaulting on Chinese debt and a complete breakdown of international trade.

The growing middle class must be reaching the point where they will be forced to intervene or lose everything.

IG.
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Old 24th Oct 2021, 16:28
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Re Xi; Lets hope he does not have a "pride goeth before a fall" moment. If war comes it will probably be a result of individual actions by commanders at the tactical level that lead to an out of control spiral of unintended consequences........
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Old 24th Oct 2021, 19:47
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Originally Posted by henra
That's the mysterious part: Where the hell is the sudden rush coming from? Is Xi nervous that a collapse of the Chinese Bubble (Stock markets, Real estate/Housing + Industrial base moving to cheaper Countries) is getting nearer?
China is in the throes of what arguably is the world’s largest ever property bubble. Significant speculative purchase of properties has taken place over the last few years, with developers pocketing full payment and moving to start and break ground on new developments before finishing the just purchased units (the model in China allows for payment to the developer prior to completion), resulting in lots of part built developments across the country. This in essence, shifts the risk from the developer to the banking sector and the buyer. The banks in China are verymuch on the hook with the property market.

The construction sector has reached being 30% of GDP, compare that to high 20’s% for both Spain and Ireland at the time of the bursting of their bubbles.

A lot of domestic wealth will be destroyed when the bubble pops and that will be a big challenge to the Communmist Party. The Party has decided it’s time to act … but it may already be too late. Perhaps a nationalistic distraction may help.

From Reuters, 20th October 2021

China's new home prices stalled for the first time since February 2020 in September, as the chill in the property market intensified amid tightening credit due to an ongoing crackdown on speculative investment.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...on-2021-10-20/

JAS
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Old 25th Oct 2021, 10:55
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Cocking a long snoot? Those five Russian and five Chinese navy vessels threaded their way right around Japan through channels they’ve never used before.

https://japantoday.com/category/nati...g-around-japan
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Old 25th Oct 2021, 13:45
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Originally Posted by Just a spotter
The construction sector has reached being 30% of GDP, compare that to high 20’s% for both Spain and Ireland at the time of the bursting of their bubbles.

A lot of domestic wealth will be destroyed when the bubble pops and that will be a big challenge to the Communmist Party. The Party has decided it’s time to act … but it may already be too late. Perhaps a nationalistic distraction may help.
That's exactly my impression (and worry). The consequence of China's bubble collapsing also from a World Economy perspective is a bit worrying, And I consider Xi's actions as of late as one of the most reliable indications that this is a very real risk. (Or someone's sawing on his chair - but that I don't see being the case).
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Old 25th Oct 2021, 15:50
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Originally Posted by Just a spotter
A lot of domestic wealth will be destroyed when the bubble pops and that will be a big challenge to the Communmist Party. The Party has decided it’s time to act … but it may already be too late. Perhaps a nationalistic distraction may help.
Would it be a gross error to look at the Government in Buenos Aires and Las Malvinas circa 1982 to see a parallel, - are there too many other dissimilarities to make that comparison useful? Just tossing some spaghetti noodles at the wall and seeing what sticks.
If the Chinese economic bubble bursts, the ripple effects will hit all of their trading partners - that is one difference.
When Argentina's economy tanks, it's just Tuesday.
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Old 25th Oct 2021, 16:11
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I think the Organs of the State take a more robust view of demonstrations in China than they did in BA..............
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Old 27th Oct 2021, 20:11
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https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...st-2021-10-27/

Top U.S. general confirms 'very concerning' Chinese hypersonic weapons test
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Old 30th Oct 2021, 07:43
  #1179 (permalink)  
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And still they come…..

https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...s-break-cover/

New variants of Chinese stealth fighters break cover

MELBOURNE, Australia – Two new variants of China’s stealth fighters have broken cover in the past three days, including China’s next carrier-based fighter, hinted at during a recent air show.

Photos and videos taken outside the Chengdu Aircraft factory in its namesake city on Tuesday showed a two-seat J-20 stealth fighter in overall primer, confirming persistent rumors such a variant was being developed by the company. The photos and video, posted on Weibo and other social media portals, distinctly showed the aircraft’s tandem cockpit as it taxied toward the runway for take-off.

It’s not clear what role the back-seater would play, although a logical explanation would be that the rear seat would be occupied by a weapons system officer, or WSO, responsible for operating the J-20′s radar and weapons……



In addition, photos surfaced earlier today of what appears to be China’s stealthy carrier-borne fighter taking to the air for the first time. As previously reported, industry officials said during the recent Zhuhai air show the new carrier-borne stealth fighter would make its first flight in 2021.

The photos also confirm the aircraft, whose exact designation is also unknown and is also left in primer, is a development of the redesigned Shenyang FC-31 stealth fighter that has also been called the J-31 in some quarters and was previously suggested as an export design.

The photos, taken while the aircraft was in flight, show the catapult launch bar on the nose landing gear and what appears to be hinges on the wings that allow them to be folded, a typical feature of carrier-based aircraft to allow the limited space on the flight deck and hangars to be maximized.

The new type will likely equip the Type 003 carrier being built at a shipyard in the coastal megacity of Shanghai, which, unlike China’s two existing carriers, will be fitted with catapults that will allow it to shorten the aircraft launch cycle, as well as enable it to operate larger and heavier aircraft such as the Xi’an KJ-600 turboprop carrier-borne airborne early warning aircraft.….

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Old 30th Oct 2021, 08:01
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Wouldn’t it be cheaper all round to have the Chinese build our military aircraft for us? Then no one would have to make copies any more.
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