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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 12th Jun 2022, 15:59
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Interesting statement from China recently.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU5GdzrX...ng&name=medium




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Old 13th Jun 2022, 06:39
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I think that's always been their position - actual Independence is an absolute red line for Beijing
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 08:02
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No need to declare anything as they’ve always been independent. China is daring them to do something that is not even on the agenda.

Hope no Taiwanese politician falls for this tempting but meaningless false-flag bait.
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Old 13th Jun 2022, 13:11
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
I think that's always been their position - actual Independence is an absolute red line for Beijing
That's not the case though
The CCP's Position on Taiwan is not consistent


And an important point here - what do the Taiwanese people want?

Last edited by Load Toad; 14th Jun 2022 at 03:17. Reason: Added clarity
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 08:07
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The CCP were in a different position in 1943 to 1933 - they reckoned they Japanese were definitely going to lose and they were definitely going to win..On the rights of the Taiwanese people to self determination there are many cases of people gaining independence (Bangladesh, Ireland, USA) and many were they have failed (Confederated States, the Boers, Tamil Tigers). There are no accepted rules.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 12:43
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'Interesting' development... (article in the lunchtime edition of The Times).

China sets up US conflict by laying claim to Taiwan Strait


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Old 14th Jun 2022, 15:02
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FoN ops just got a little more dicey. I am reminded of the never ending scraps between Turkey and Greece in re international waters in the eastern Aegean, based on which rock is claimed by whom.
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 23:10
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Looking forward to the first carrier transit through the Strait and B-52 overflight which is probably being planned as we speak!
The military equivalent of a raised finger...
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Old 14th Jun 2022, 23:42
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Originally Posted by tartare
Looking forward to the first carrier transit through the Strait and B-52 overflight which is probably being planned as we speak!
The military equivalent of a raised finger...
I suspect that the next FoN ops will get extra helpings of EW support. Not sure why Buffs would be involved.
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 02:14
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I suspect that the next FoN ops will get extra helpings of EW support. Not sure why Buffs would be involved.
An assumption based on previous activities:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-s...-a-week-2018-9
Either Buff or Bone seems to be the aerial symbol of choice.
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 02:24
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I may be wholly biased, but I think the Bone is a nicer looking aircraft. If you are gonna swagger, swagger with style.
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 02:35
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True... it is an impressive piece of kit.
That said the B-52 says big, bad and scary like few other aircraft.
The statement by China bodes ill for the RAAF and RAN I reckon.
They'll think twice about arguing with the `states on the water or in the air - but won't hesitate to bully little Australia.
The next incident will be more than chaff.
All it'll take is another hot-headed Chinese fast jet pilot - and we'll have a Hainan type mid-air collision and forced landing type scenario again - or worse.
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 06:19
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Originally Posted by tartare
All it'll take is another hot-headed Chinese fast jet pilot - and we'll have a Hainan type mid-air collision and forced landing type scenario again - or worse.
It doesnít say much for the Chinese military if their fast jet pilots canít avoid what is essentially a 4-engined airliner.
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 06:45
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Despite the PLA desperately trying to change their training culture to create more autonomous and creative combat pilots in the last decade, the aggressive hassling of Western ferret flights would be calculated and ordered from well above.

I agree with Tartare. It seems only a matter of time before a shoot down. Plenty of history in the early days of PLA shooting down airliners, ferret flights and stray US combat aircraft during the Vietnam war
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 07:08
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Gung Hō by name and gung-ho by nature?
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Old 15th Jun 2022, 07:20
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"That said the B-52 says big, bad and scary like few other aircraft."

its also one of the few known to "the man in the street" across the world. Send a B1 or B2 and people just think "another aeroplane"

Send a B-52 and the world thinks Dr. Strangelove, Vietnam, Iraq

Symbolic but symbols are what you want when people start playing up thinking they might get away with things
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Old 17th Jun 2022, 05:18
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The B1 no longer has a nuclear role, the Chinese know that. Now the B52 on the other hand does, the Chinese know that as well. Lose a couple of buildings vs lose a city is the difference in aircraft and in messaging.
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Old 17th Jun 2022, 06:05
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In that context it’s not just Russia using nuclear threats.

China does it too, and DPRK has just about joined the club.
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Old 17th Jun 2022, 06:16
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Two more have joined the five. Seven Russian navy ships spotted today off the north east coast of Japan. More to join in.

Quote: “Russia's Defense Ministry announced that it will conduct the large-scale military exercises in the Pacific from June 3, with around 40 Pacific Fleet vessels and others taking part.”
https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2022061000600/amp/#
Better than average chance that the Chinese will join in, I wager.
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Old 17th Jun 2022, 06:44
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Mid - summer - good to get out on the water......................
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