The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Well, having watched Hong Kong, they know the value that can be given to Beijing promises - so it is a choice of going down fighting and a burnt earth defence destroying chip plants and hi-tech factories or just giving in. And it doesn’t sound like the latter.
Not sure how much Chinese production depends on hi-tech imports from Taiwan - but an invasion could be a Pyrrhic victory…
Not sure how much Chinese production depends on hi-tech imports from Taiwan - but an invasion could be a Pyrrhic victory…
China realises its running out of time to achieve its ambitions. The half life of empires has been having for the last millennia - China’s could be over before it’s begun….
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...hers-warn.html
China's population could HALVE within 45 years: Country's birth rate hits 1.3 and researchers say demographic decline has been severely underestimated
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...hers-warn.html
China's population could HALVE within 45 years: Country's birth rate hits 1.3 and researchers say demographic decline has been severely underestimated
So China may have fewer troops by 2050, but those will have fewer opponents.
Ah but the percentage fall is bigger in China - and the PRC currently has a much worse level of social provision for the old compared to the other countries. They will have to divert a larger amount of their budget to this in future than any of the others. Some of that money will have to come from the military budget - you can see the effect clearly in W Europe over the last 125 years or so - social spending up, defence spending down
More posturing from Beijing. (The Times article & photos)
Beijing warns of war as record number of jets enter Taiwan’s air defence zone
Click the link for the rest of the article and photos/maps.
Beijing warns of war as record number of jets enter Taiwan’s air defence zone
China has warned that “war may be triggered at any time” with Taiwan after it deployed a record number of fighter jets into the self-governing island’s air identification zone.
The government in Beijing sent 56 military aircraft, including 38 J-16 fighter jets, into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, amounting to 149 flights this month. This has raised concerns that tensions in the region could escalate and turn into a military conflict.
The mass incursion yesterday coincided with a joint drill by the United States and its allies in the Philippine Sea, where HMS Queen Elizabeth was spotted with two US aircraft carriers. The British aircraft carrier later sailed through the Bashi Channel to enter the tense and disputed waters of the South China Sea.
The number of the sorties by the Chinese military was the highest since Beijing began such operations in September last year. Taiwan’s president has warned of catastrophic consequences if the island falls to China, which claims the island as its own.
An editorial in the Global Times, one of the most excitable and nationalistic of the Chinese state-owned newspapers, said: “The situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for manoeuvre, teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war may be triggered at any time.
“The secessionist forces on the island will never be allowed to secede Taiwan from China … and the island will not be allowed to act as an outpost of the US’s strategic containment against China … If the US and [Taiwan] do not take the initiative to reverse the current situation, the Chinese mainland’s military punishment for ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces will eventually be triggered.” It added: “Time will prove that this warning is not just a verbal threat.”
The government in Beijing sent 56 military aircraft, including 38 J-16 fighter jets, into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, amounting to 149 flights this month. This has raised concerns that tensions in the region could escalate and turn into a military conflict.
The mass incursion yesterday coincided with a joint drill by the United States and its allies in the Philippine Sea, where HMS Queen Elizabeth was spotted with two US aircraft carriers. The British aircraft carrier later sailed through the Bashi Channel to enter the tense and disputed waters of the South China Sea.
The number of the sorties by the Chinese military was the highest since Beijing began such operations in September last year. Taiwan’s president has warned of catastrophic consequences if the island falls to China, which claims the island as its own.
An editorial in the Global Times, one of the most excitable and nationalistic of the Chinese state-owned newspapers, said: “The situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for manoeuvre, teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war may be triggered at any time.
“The secessionist forces on the island will never be allowed to secede Taiwan from China … and the island will not be allowed to act as an outpost of the US’s strategic containment against China … If the US and [Taiwan] do not take the initiative to reverse the current situation, the Chinese mainland’s military punishment for ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces will eventually be triggered.” It added: “Time will prove that this warning is not just a verbal threat.”
National Day on both sides
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...mat-warns.html
China is a 'real and imminent threat' to Taiwan, America's top diplomat to the island warns
China is a 'real and imminent threat' to Taiwan, America's top diplomat to the island warns
Crazy Ivan - or the Chinese equivalent?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ater-collision
"An official who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on the record said that the area’s topography at the time did not indicate there was a land mass in front of the boat," Military Times reported.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ater-collision
"An official who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on the record said that the area’s topography at the time did not indicate there was a land mass in front of the boat," Military Times reported.
...and with the caveat that it is the Guardian - this is interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...trainers-china
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...trainers-china
Would the US take it kindly if China offered military aid to Hawaii to help the island break free of Washington's oppression?
Evertonian
Considering that the US agreed with Beijing that Taiwan was part of China as part of Nixon's China initiative back in the 1970s, I don';t see how the US has a legal leg to stand on in this conflict.
Would the US take it kindly if China offered military aid to Hawaii to help the island break free of Washington's oppression?
Would the US take it kindly if China offered military aid to Hawaii to help the island break free of Washington's oppression?
When mainland China last had control over Taiwan, 1683 to 1895, the Japanese kicked their butts out, after WWII Japan lost possession, I say we flip a coin to see if we give it back to Japan or divvy it up between the winners of WWII. Lost in all the argy bargy is the native population, bit like the American Indian and Australian Aborigine.
So let's war game this.
Been having a read around Taiwan, all the issues etc.
The Taiwan Strait is only 50 metres deep in most places.
China would have to have anything from a 3 to 1 troop advantage, to 5 to 1 advantage (mountainous terrain) in manpower numbers to be successful in invading - according to standard military strategic doctrine.
At the upper end of numbers, that's 1.5 million soldiers in an amphibious landing and airdrops.
To carry them there, it would need to mobilise a massive civilian maritime fleet, as well as it's navy and it's Air Force.
There are only a few key beaches on the west coast where you could conduct amphibious landings - and the east is mostly rocky cliffs.
Chinese leaked maps show them invading from the south - but similar problems.
If they were really going to swarm across from the mainland - you'd see them coming months in advance and from miles off - and it would be an absolute turkey shoot to pick them off - suicide mission.
This is not going to be a repeat D-day in any sense of the word.
Their first step would probably be area access area denial right out to Okinawa and Guam - and that would be the sign it was game on.
Or would there be an incremental salami slicing series of targeted missile strikes over a series of months - just enough to soften Taiwan up - but not quite enough to provoke an Allied response.
Boiling the frog strategy - so to speak.
How do you all think it might play out?
Been having a read around Taiwan, all the issues etc.
The Taiwan Strait is only 50 metres deep in most places.
China would have to have anything from a 3 to 1 troop advantage, to 5 to 1 advantage (mountainous terrain) in manpower numbers to be successful in invading - according to standard military strategic doctrine.
At the upper end of numbers, that's 1.5 million soldiers in an amphibious landing and airdrops.
To carry them there, it would need to mobilise a massive civilian maritime fleet, as well as it's navy and it's Air Force.
There are only a few key beaches on the west coast where you could conduct amphibious landings - and the east is mostly rocky cliffs.
Chinese leaked maps show them invading from the south - but similar problems.
If they were really going to swarm across from the mainland - you'd see them coming months in advance and from miles off - and it would be an absolute turkey shoot to pick them off - suicide mission.
This is not going to be a repeat D-day in any sense of the word.
Their first step would probably be area access area denial right out to Okinawa and Guam - and that would be the sign it was game on.
Or would there be an incremental salami slicing series of targeted missile strikes over a series of months - just enough to soften Taiwan up - but not quite enough to provoke an Allied response.
Boiling the frog strategy - so to speak.
How do you all think it might play out?
Last edited by tartare; 8th Oct 2021 at 08:47.
Also china's strength lies in its army, I also believe they will a spoiling attacks into south korea either with or without NK permission in an attempt to be somewhat a diversion for operations against taiwan.
India could also be drawn in the same way. India vs pakistan with chinese forces. Not in so much attempt to take land but to disrupt the western forces response to a taiwan attack
India could also be drawn in the same way. India vs pakistan with chinese forces. Not in so much attempt to take land but to disrupt the western forces response to a taiwan attack
The more one reads - there's some fascinating stuff going on in the subsea warfare domain.
Didn't realise that an AIM-9X has been successfully fired from a submerged sub.
Done a while back - and the concept has now gone black.
Watch out ASW helicopters and aircraft!
Didn't realise that an AIM-9X has been successfully fired from a submerged sub.
Done a while back - and the concept has now gone black.
Watch out ASW helicopters and aircraft!
I've no idea whether the Nixon administration allowed Taipei any say in the negotiations, but Taiwan did have a solid set of supporters in Washington
Evertonian
I spent a little bit of time in TPE back in the'90's & most of the people I spoke to back then were all in favour of reunification. Perhaps they were all below 30 at the time & didn't have memories like the older generation, but it seems to me that the CCP missed out on a peaceful solution back then. In fairness, it wasn't a large pool of opinion of course.
China's industrial explosion in the 80s and 90s was only possible because of the number of Taiwanese who came to China to train the local population.
They could speak the lingo and knew how the kit worked.
They could speak the lingo and knew how the kit worked.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58854081
Am I the only one that thinks the a lot of this is down to the USA standing by and letting Georgie happen, failing to meet their obligations to defend the Ukraine as the Crimea was annexed from the Country, and failing to remain in Afghanistan and handing the Country to the Taliban?
In other words showing a weakness to get involved where they have obligations and in that showing China that if they take Taiwan where the USA has commitments they know the US will simply stand back, let it happen and react with nothing but bluster.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-c...ouse-bill/2479
..
China's President Xi Jinping has said that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled", as heightened tensions over the island continue.
Mr Xi said unification should be achieved peacefully, but warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.
In response, Taiwan said its future lay in the hands of its people.
Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.
Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
Mr Xi's intervention comes after China sent a record number of military jets into Taiwan's air defence zone in recent days. Some analysts say the flights could be seen as a warning to Taiwan's president ahead of the island's national day on Sunday.
Mr Xi said unification should be achieved peacefully, but warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.
In response, Taiwan said its future lay in the hands of its people.
Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.
Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.
Mr Xi's intervention comes after China sent a record number of military jets into Taiwan's air defence zone in recent days. Some analysts say the flights could be seen as a warning to Taiwan's president ahead of the island's national day on Sunday.
In other words showing a weakness to get involved where they have obligations and in that showing China that if they take Taiwan where the USA has commitments they know the US will simply stand back, let it happen and react with nothing but bluster.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-c...ouse-bill/2479
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 9th Oct 2021 at 21:40.