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Future Carrier (Including Costs)

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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 16:43
  #6661 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Explain to me why the shortage of pilots on the F-35 force is a MFTS problem?

if the RAF wanted to give priority to their F-35 slots they could short man the Typhoon force for a while.

An interesting question would be how many of their established slots the RN is filling.
UK Defence Secretary > HCDC just now - 33 F-35B pilots for 27 aircraft (including 3 x foreign - 1 x USAF / 1 x USMC / 1 x RAAF).

Only 13 of these are on the 12-aircraft front-line squadron (617 Sqn).

My comment: This of course is not only way below required NATO standards but insufficient for 24 hour ops + flying supervision.

On F-35B deliveries, it will take until 2025 to get 48 and "end of the decade" to get 74 [my comment: by comparison, RAAF will have all its 72 x F-35A by 2023].

On training pipeline:

Pilots holding for Valley AFT going backwards - now 51 vs 38 when CAS told 3 years ago to sort it - 9 holding post AFT for OCU - pilot entry hold down from 120 3 years ago > 25 now.

HCDC wants to see CAS ASAP.


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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 16:44
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Explain to me why the shortage of pilots on the F-35 force is a MFTS problem?

if the RAF wanted to give priority to their F-35 slots they could short man the Typhoon force for a while.

An interesting question would be how many of their established slots the RN is filling.
Given that the MFTS is acknowledged to be failing - indeed that was the thrust of the evidence session - it sort of seems a given?

The question of how many RN slots are filled would indeed be interesting. Given both OC 207 and 617 were until recently RN, maybe not necessarily an issue?


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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 17:17
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"supported by the Royal 'We Want Big Boats No Matter What' Navy.""

AHH I see - that's the REAL reason one is parked in the wilds of Scotland.... to free up airframes & crew etc
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Old 2nd Nov 2022, 20:35
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I was going to post the numbers quoted by RAFEngO74to09. Perhaps 33 pilots for 37 aircraft is not as bad as some might make out, MFTS remains woeful, and the build up of the Lightning Force painfully slow. It will be interesting to see how many are embarked aboard HMS Queen Elizabeth when she deploys on NATO tasking shortly. Returning to another issue:

Originally Posted by Asturias56
But we managed without carriers for years WEBF - currently we have one available carrier - does that mean there are no other ASW helicopter operations?

A full on carrier is a very expensive way of carrying out ASW - especially when it is a lovely big target in its own right

We may have managed for years (which is open to dispute because HMS Illustrious remained in service until July 2014, and Ocean was in service until Queen Elizabeth was in commission - and both ships supported NATO ASW exercises), but the cosy post Cold War era is over.

The point is that we face a new reality in which things like crisis reinforcement shipping and amphibious forces face peer level threats. The main threat that Russia could post in the Atlantic is from submarines, with aircraft launched anti ship missiles also being something to worry about. The carrier provides the means to defend against both - of course in conjunction with other warships and aircraft, and other assets.

Originally Posted by SASless
If the Carriers are supposed to be doing "useful things"....having half the Carrier Fleet spending extended periods of time in Rosyth for unscheduled repairs puts a very real dent in the ability for "useful things" to be performed?

What happens to that capability if both Carriers are in port for regular maintenance and unscheduled repairs?

Does the ASW function revert to the Frigates and Helicopters?

Does that mean the ASW capability is rendered insufficient as a result?
It would very unlikely that both are in dry dock. Without a big deck it would be more difficult to deploy as many ASW helicopters, but it could be worked around. It would be impossible to deploy aircraft for air defence though, and it is likely that submarine and air threats would coexist. Soviet/Russian submarines have often been armed with long range anti ship missiles, which depending on third party targeting - usually by aircraft.

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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 01:52
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Originally Posted by Not_a_boffin
Given that the MFTS is acknowledged to be failing - indeed that was the thrust of the evidence session - it sort of seems a given?

The question of how many RN slots are filled would indeed be interesting. Given both OC 207 and 617 were until recently RN, maybe not necessarily an issue?

But IS it? (MFTS failing)

Published figures from MoD around the time of the most recent training pipeline fiasco clearly showed that the key issue, on all fleets, is places on the Operational Conversion Units, which are all entirely service staffed and nothing to do with MFTS. Now I have to agree that the miniscule fleets on MFTS MUST be contributing to pipeline issues, but those miniscule fleets were all passed off as acceptable by VSO's, so once again that is a service issue, a Very Senior Officer service issue.

The UK F-35B Lightning fleet is rapidly becoming an embarrassment. Not in terms of capability, I am sure that the thing is terrific, but in the tiny size of the fleet, the even smaller pilot community, and the agonizingly slow force build up. It is becoming an embarrassment compared to many other, far smaller air forces around the world who are building up their fleets far quicker.
In the most recent announcement of the fleet build up the Mod happily announced that the build of the new facility to house the 2nd operational squadron would begin at Marham IN MARCH 2024!!!! BEGIN in 2024, that is just laughable.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 09:10
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"Ocean was in service until Queen Elizabeth was in commission "

WEBF - you spent years telling us that Ocean wasn't a replacement for a proper carrier.

The main threat that Russia could post in the Atlantic is from submarines, with aircraft launched anti ship missiles also being something to worry about. The carrier provides the means to defend against both

Its also a major target of both - we have to divert and SSN and T45 to protect the carrier - and we don't have enough of either TBH
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 10:41
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
But IS it? (MFTS failing)

Published figures from MoD around the time of the most recent training pipeline fiasco clearly showed that the key issue, on all fleets, is places on the Operational Conversion Units, which are all entirely service staffed and nothing to do with MFTS. Now I have to agree that the miniscule fleets on MFTS MUST be contributing to pipeline issues, but those miniscule fleets were all passed off as acceptable by VSO's, so once again that is a service issue, a Very Senior Officer service issue.

The UK F-35B Lightning fleet is rapidly becoming an embarrassment. Not in terms of capability, I am sure that the thing is terrific, but in the tiny size of the fleet, the even smaller pilot community, and the agonizingly slow force build up. It is becoming an embarrassment compared to many other, far smaller air forces around the world who are building up their fleets far quicker.
In the most recent announcement of the fleet build up the Mod happily announced that the build of the new facility to house the 2nd operational squadron would begin at Marham IN MARCH 2024!!!! BEGIN in 2024, that is just laughable.
The SoS evidence to the HCDC suggests that the issue is not in conversion (9 waiting), compared to 51 waiting in the Valley pipeline.

Your last para is undeniable and I entirely agree.


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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 10:45
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Its also a major target of both - we have to divert and SSN and T45 to protect the carrier - and we don't have enough of either TBH
Has it occurred to you that the carrier actually enhances the effect delivered by both SSN and T45, rather than being some sort of burden? You've still never managed to explain what missions you think the T45 is being diverted from.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 16:49
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We seemed to keep them busy before the carriers arrived NAB - we don't have enough of course but diverting a significant part of the fleet into one space rather cuts the options across the rest of the world, no? We can be very effective in one area with a carrier+T45+SSN - maybe it would be better to be effective in 3 separate areas?
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 16:59
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We've done this before. Do please carry on and define "effective". That might include actually answering the question as to what mission you think the T45 is being diverted from.
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Old 3rd Nov 2022, 17:54
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Much as I am unhappy with the situation [unserviceability, strange choice of F35, numbers of aircraft, numbers of pilots], we are where we are, and the leadership of the RN/RAF, current and immediate past, has a lot to answer for.

Get a bl99dy grip, there is a proxy war on and it could turn nasty during a coffee break.

The young men and women at the sharp ends need and deserve better service.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 09:34
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This is the RN's view of what the T45's typically do

Daring has had a busy life since commissioning in 2009, circumnavigating the globe from May 2013 to February 2014. She has conducted radar trials in the Pacific Ocean, provided relief the stricken islands of the Philippines following typhoon Haiyan, and put her sophisticated radar and missile systems to excellent use protecting US aircraft carriers as they strike at terrorists in Iraq and Syria.Daring returned to Portsmouth in May 2017. During her time away, she visited 12 countries, steamed 50,000 miles and taken part in 20 patrols of the Bab-al-Mandeb strait to reassure merchant vessels and keep the sea lanes open for trade.

I'm sure WEBF's posts will fill in the any gaps -
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 10:03
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
This is the RN's view of what the T45's typically do

Daring has had a busy life since commissioning in 2009, circumnavigating the globe from May 2013 to February 2014. She has conducted radar trials in the Pacific Ocean, provided relief the stricken islands of the Philippines following typhoon Haiyan, and put her sophisticated radar and missile systems to excellent use protecting US aircraft carriers as they strike at terrorists in Iraq and Syria.Daring returned to Portsmouth in May 2017. During her time away, she visited 12 countries, steamed 50,000 miles and taken part in 20 patrols of the Bab-al-Mandeb strait to reassure merchant vessels and keep the sea lanes open for trade.

I'm sure WEBF's posts will fill in the any gaps -
So - as usual - you are unable to answer the rather simple question of "what mission you think the T45 is being diverted from". Instead you have to go to google data for a ship that hasn't been at sea (for a number of reasons - none of which to do with carriers) since 2017.

It's interesting that Defender did most of those tasks during CSG21, although apparently no-one remembered to order a natural disaster for her to assist with, Poor drills, I'm sure the programmers in Tracy Island will try and rectify that for CSG23, so you don't feel short changed.
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Old 4th Nov 2022, 21:22
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"Ocean was in service until Queen Elizabeth was in commission "

WEBF - you spent years telling us that Ocean wasn't a replacement for a proper carrier.

The main threat that Russia could post in the Atlantic is from submarines, with aircraft launched anti ship missiles also being something to worry about. The carrier provides the means to defend against both

Its also a major target of both - we have to divert and SSN and T45 to protect the carrier - and we don't have enough of either TBH
Where to start? Yes Ocean was not a carrier, but at times she was used for carrier like roles.

HMS Ocean leads international submarine hunting exercise - 20 July 2016

The seven helicopters from 814 Naval Air Squadron (NAS), 849 NAS and 815 NAS which fly the Merlin, Sea King and Lynx helicopters respectively, were vital assets in enhancing the ability to search for deep sea threats.

Captain Steve Moorhouse, the commanding officer of HMS Ocean and the commander of the task group for Exercise Deep Blue II, said, “I am delighted to have taken command of this multinational anti-submarine warfare exercise and am particularly pleased to have a Royal Navy tailored air group of seven aircraft embarked from Culdrose and Yeovilton.

“The work the US, French and UK are undertaking on this exercise will play a key role in the development of skills and procedures we will need when operating our new aircraft carriers as part of a maritime task group.”

RN leads US Task Force 50 for first time - 26 Nov 2016

The Royal Navy has taken command of US Task Force 50 in the Gulf – the first time it has led a US task force in the Middle East.

Commodore Andrew Burns, the Royal Navy’s Commander Amphibious Task Group, has taken charge of the US task force while currently embarked on HMS Ocean.

It represents a significant development in combined maritime operations between the UK and US.

Commodore Burns and his staff will now direct the operations of the multi-national task force from on board Ocean, maintaining the free flow of trade, freedom of navigation for shipping and regional security in an area covering around 2.5m square miles.

Navy's eyes in the sky look to to the future on board HMS Ocean - 10 Jan 17

Bagger squadron 849 NAS is rotating its three flights – Normandy, Okinawa and Palembang – through the Gulf, taking advantage of RN and RFA vessels operating in the region to get their sea legs back.

With the arrival of Ocean, however, the flights – currently Palembang – can considerably expand the training (benefiting them and the future RN) thanks to Merlin helicopters embarked to protect Ocean’s group from surface and, especially, submarine threats.

The result is that aircrew and task group staff can test the ability of the two different helicopter types to work together to help protect the task force from threats coming from every dimension.

As for your other point, do you think that things like amphibious forces or logistics shipping might need defending? If so, then why not optimise the ASW helicopters by collocating them, and use aircraft to intercept hostile aircraft beyond the range of shipborne missile systems?

Originally Posted by Asturias56
This is the RN's view of what the T45's typically do

Daring has had a busy life since commissioning in 2009, circumnavigating the globe from May 2013 to February 2014. She has conducted radar trials in the Pacific Ocean, provided relief the stricken islands of the Philippines following typhoon Haiyan, and put her sophisticated radar and missile systems to excellent use protecting US aircraft carriers as they strike at terrorists in Iraq and Syria.Daring returned to Portsmouth in May 2017. During her time away, she visited 12 countries, steamed 50,000 miles and taken part in 20 patrols of the Bab-al-Mandeb strait to reassure merchant vessels and keep the sea lanes open for trade.

I'm sure WEBF's posts will fill in the any gaps -
So protecting and supporting a carrier is part of the Type 45's role then? They often played a part in directing aircraft as well. On which note:

Royal Navy destroyer operates with Greek navy and US supercarrier as Med mission ramps up - 3 Nov 22

Lieutenant David Bowen, Fighter Controller on Defender directed American jets from the US Navy’s tenth and final Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush during the exercises.

“Working with the USS George HW Bush was a brilliant opportunity to prove our interoperability as partner nations and allowed us to develop relationships during the planning process,” he said.

“During the execution of the sortie I was nervous until the aircraft checked in, at this point I had to deliver the best service that I could to them, Fighter Controller training in RNAS Yeovilton and MWS Collingwood provided me with all the skills to do the job I have trained to do over the last eight months.

---


As one of the world's most powerful warships, Defender tested her air defence capability during an exercise with F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets from the George HW Bush.

Defender controlled some of the F/A-18s during the exercise with her Fighter Controllers, demonstrating the ability to work seamlessly with a close NATO ally.

Going back to ASW for a moment, earlier this year HMS Prince of Wales was in the Arctic conducting ASW with her embarked Merlins, the frigate HMS Richmond (with either a Merlin or a Wildcat embarked) and at times an RAF P-8 and possibly an SSN. As far as I know three Merlins were aboard Prince of Wales. Is she had not been there, then you would have needed three frigates for them. As far as I know not every frigate is Merlin capable, only the ones that got 2087 sonar. The carrier will be able to operate them in worse weather conditions than a frigate, due to hull and deck size.

As N_a_b and others have tried to point out:

The carrier enhances the effectiveness of the ASW frigate by providing multiple ASW helicopters for constant operation, in conjunction with towed array sonar and other platforms and systems. The fixed wing aircraft aboard the carrier can also deal with any aircraft providing reconnaissance for hostile submarines or long range targeting for long range missiles.

The carrier enhances the effectiveness of the AAW destroyer by providing the means for aircraft to be intercepted and visually identify aircraft and if necessary engage them far beyond the range of the destroyer's missiles - kill the archer not the arrows. This is important in preventing shipborne AAW systems from being saturated.

The carrier enhances the effectiveness of the SSN (or SSK from a partner navy) by coordinating the activities of all the submarines attached to the task/strike group, including coordinating their activities with those of other ASW platforms and providing deconfliction.

Last edited by WE Branch Fanatic; 6th Nov 2022 at 14:26.
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Old 5th Nov 2022, 09:07
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Yes WEBF - but we now have a concertation of high value units around the carrier - we only have 6 T45's and 7 SSN's - two of each seem to be in dock most of the time (plus a carrier as well. So we have a total of 10 high value units available. Now three of them are in one place our coverage has to be less than it was
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Old 5th Nov 2022, 11:42
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Yes WEBF - but we now have a concertation of high value units around the carrier - we only have 6 T45's and 7 SSN's - two of each seem to be in dock most of the time (plus a carrier as well. So we have a total of 10 high value units available. Now three of them are in one place our coverage has to be less than it was
Still unable to answer a simple question it seems.

Unsurprising given that you seem to be inventing definitions of HVU.


Last edited by Not_a_boffin; 5th Nov 2022 at 17:20.
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Old 6th Nov 2022, 07:35
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NAB - the T45's were kept pretty busy from their introduction in service - long before the carriers appeared - that was all useful and necessary tasks no? They can't be doing the same, necessary, jobs now as a substantial percentage of the force is on carrier protection .

This is one of things that those who aren't carrier fans predicted - we don't have enough assets (T45's SSn', frigates) to do both properly. The carriers are a distraction in a small navy.
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Old 6th Nov 2022, 09:00
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
NAB - the T45's were kept pretty busy from their introduction in service - long before the carriers appeared - that was all useful and necessary tasks no? They can't be doing the same, necessary, jobs now as a substantial percentage of the force is on carrier protection .

This is one of things that those who aren't carrier fans predicted - we don't have enough assets (T45's SSn', frigates) to do both properly. The carriers are a distraction in a small navy.
How many times and / or how simple do I have to make the question?

What (I assume you understand that word)
Mission(s) - military tasks, (that's things that the ships do)
Do you think (hmmmm)
Are not being undertaken by the T45 because we have carriers?

You've tried posting dated stuff from the RN website, only to discover that T45s on deployment with CSG have done pretty much all of them. You've waffled vaguely about "coverage" as if that was actually a mission. Try answering the question.

If you manage that, you can then try and find out which HVU are currently in the Med with a T45.
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Old 6th Nov 2022, 11:41
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Has there been a "War" with a Peer/Near Peer Enemy since the 45's were commissioned that required a max deployment tasking?

I would ask the same for the two Carriers?

Is the RN fully equipped, manned, have logistic support capacity to wage a real War.....now....and if not....when shall it be?

You have half your Carrier fleet in port for extended repairs, the 45's seem to be performing only partial tasking, the F-35 program is a shambles....it does beg asking hard questions with straight forward honest answers.

The RN is an integral part of strategic planning by NATO and for other allied Navies.....can the RN live up to what would be demanded should a real live shooting war break out in the Atlantic and European waters?

As I see it....the RN bet the house on the F-35 and went with non-standard carriers that have no Catapaults or angled decks for the operation of other types of airplanes and drones.....thus despite being big and pretty....they are designed for a single type of airplane.

The questions are directed at the decision makers.....not the crews who are among the best in the World and who have to work with the tools they are provided.


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Old 6th Nov 2022, 14:25
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Originally Posted by SASless
Has there been a "War" with a Peer/Near Peer Enemy since the 45's were commissioned that required a max deployment tasking?

I would ask the same for the two Carriers?

Is the RN fully equipped, manned, have logistic support capacity to wage a real War.....now....and if not....when shall it be?.
I'm unaware of any Peer / Near peer war any of us in the West have been involved in in this century.


Originally Posted by SASless
You have half your Carrier fleet in port for extended repairs, the 45's seem to be performing only partial tasking, the F-35 program is a shambles....it does beg asking hard questions with straight forward honest answers.
It's actually not a dissimilar amount to the USN at the minute. Have a gander at how many are in maintenance unavailabilties and/or RCOH at the minute. The T45s are doing plenty of tasking - when they are available. Availability is currently constrained due to ongoing propulsion upgrade programmes - which are a consequence of decisions made in around 2003 and - contrary to the beliefs of certain individuals that are incapable of answering simple questions - nothing to do with carriers. That has been a significant issue over the last eight years and is also related to the level of ILS provided. Both are in the - slow - process of being addressed.

Not sure the F35 can be described as a shambles. The UK force stand-up probably could be - but I'd suggest that's down to MFTS and budgetting, rather than anything to do with the F35 itself.

Originally Posted by SASless
As I see it....the RN bet the house on the F-35 and went with non-standard carriers that have no Catapaults or angled decks for the operation of other types of airplanes and drones.....thus despite being big and pretty....they are designed for a single type of airplane.

The questions are directed at the decision makers.....not the crews who are among the best in the World and who have to work with the tools they are provided.
A common misconception. The choice to acquire large deck carriers - and their configuration - was a Joint decision, not purely RN. Is it perfect? Of course not. Are people trying to improve things? Yes - but they are hampered by a corporate atrophying of knowledge and budgets.

The carrier and F35 budgets are actually fairly small compared to those where the money really goes.
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