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A glimmer of hope maybe

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Old 9th Mar 2010, 21:25
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Yes pay up front, and dont forget to pay the 5% contingency, and a bit extra for isolated - because if not you might feel very lonely and isolated when you discover you need a couple more hours in the end, so you can make sure you can land at your final destination, which of course is a bit isolated.

I would say now, as the recession seems to be over, quickly over to the bank before the weekend, and secure yourself a loan for the whole training, just be honest and tell them that within few years you will be a rich FO/Captain with one of the major airlines, normally it is enough if you bring them your log book, just to show you really have some experience, dont worry about what you show them, they wont understand anyway. Quickly get the cash now, and great fortune to you too!
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 13:50
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The question is, are the jobs that are starting to appear, worth spending the money on the qualifications to do them? This industry has changed forever - for the worse - since old gits like me got into it even a decade ago. We're starting to see situations where experienced and decent pilots are getting told they're overqualified for jobs - because they want punters who are prepared to buy an absurdly inflated price type rating, and then work for free or pay-to-fly.

Now the lo-cos and the beancounter-run-airlines totally dominate the aviation landscape, they've had their taste of wannabe blood in the last couple years and they aren't going to give it up without kicking and screaming no matter HOW much of an experienced pilot shortfall comes to pass.

And now I start to see the likes of Easyjet (which used to be a decent outfit to work for) handing off even their "experienced" pilot recruitment to CTC and this garbage flexi crew contract thing, that looks to be the next level of pilot shafting starting to take shape, where even people with good experience on modern jets also get the piss taken on new-wannabe T&C's by some shady agency whose executives are creaming countless thousands for doing nothing. Agency jobs are supposed to be for dodgy far flung third world flea pits - not for the likes of Easy and Ryan to drive down T&C's in their own back yards. Korean Air and their associated agencies are now doing pay-for-command schemes, and I'd give it not long before the first one of those rears its head in a European lo-co as well.

I'm glad I'm out of the European scene forever, I'll go back to working on the farm before I sign up to any of that horsesh!t and if I was a European wannabe now I'd be taking a looooong hard look in the mirror, I just can't see an end to the perpetual paying-for-qualifications and general shafting, at ANY stage of a pilot's career now.
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 14:07
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I raised this thread partly to demonstrate that when the facts change so does my opinion. We are a long way from a position where I can honestly recommend spending any money on flying training in pursuit of commercial employment. Things still are grim for Wannabes and will remain so for some time and may yet get grimmer. We have the prospect of a double dip recession and of public spending cuts on scale never seen in Europe ever before. I don't suffer from bi-polar disorder. I'd still call myself a Bear and a grizzly one at that.

However.

People whom I know who lost their jobs at XL and Globespan and elsewhere have now got themselves replacement jobs. In some cases on B777's. Yes its usually a hot and sandy escape tunnel but it is a fact. Parts of the world are going to expand their aviation sector this year and next. The picture, whilst very dark, is not quite the unending chasm of bleakness it was a year ago.

Thankfully.


WWW
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 15:58
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cathy posted a profit today...but lingus posted a loss, albiet smaller than previous i believe.

Mrs UAV was unable last weekend to get a buiness class flight from LHR to Hong Kong, on any carrier, and her and her collegues are on seperate flights/days coming back due to lack of seats. I know there is reduced capacity but maybe this will begin to increase again...what do I know, very little!

interesting this thread hasnt grown as quick as the huge downturn thread - we are all so negative by nature!
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 16:01
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Thumbs down

Im with you LST. I see no future here as an exprienced jet FO. No movement for us within this industry as it is because of ctc and the like.
Sticking around for a non existent command due to NO movement of experienced crew because they are out of favour. Great, im finally thinking of giving up and moving to the sandpit, not ideal at all but at least the monies better.
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 16:21
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One forgets that with this idealistic talk of recovery comes the rampant rise in the price of petroleum. Let`s see how many airlines can handle a sustained $ 100 per barrel of oil. Many are yet to fall.
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 19:22
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Www,
Thank you, I really respect you, (no I’m not being sarcastic) your comment really made my day, you have gave me a glimmer of hope that all this hard work has (or maybe) payed off, I know things will be hard for us wanabes for years to come, but your post really made my day, Thanks,
Many happy landings to you sir!
Flyvirign
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 20:24
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Www, yes man.

Every single day, and every word you say. Every move you make, every step you take
I'll be watching you!
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Old 10th Mar 2010, 20:45
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Hmm.

I could write five pages about what is wrong and what the risks to the economy are and about 5 words on the upside. So don't go turning this bear in to a bull.

If there's any good news its all at the top end of the profession and its all to do with hot/humid/dictatorship areas of the planet. Its got sod all to do with the average British/Euro/Western wannabe - yet. In 2008 I was saying don't even think about coming out of training until 2012. I stick by that but at least now we're halfway there..

The world on the other side of this war on wannabes is not going to be as it was though. The finish line has been moved back a couple of years. Its not going to be until you have a couple of thousand/couple of years jet airline time that you get to get what was commonly accepted as a proper airline job.

The rungs on that ladder just keep getting jerked higher and higher. Its evil.


WWW
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Old 11th Mar 2010, 09:13
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WWW

With your wisdom of economics, please could you advise the best place to invest my childs trust fund voucher?

Thanks

mint
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Old 11th Mar 2010, 12:53
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Airline Industry Recovering

BBC News - Airline industry recovering, says Iata trade body

Good news: IATA announce
The global airline industry will recover strongly this year, as both passenger and freight numbers improve
Not so good news:
European and US airlines were still suffering the most
God knows, wannabees need a glimmer of hope (even if it is a very dim light at the end of a very long tunnel)

WWW knows his onions so it's still slowly slowly catchy monkey until 2012 for me

Last edited by manxcat; 11th Mar 2010 at 17:20.
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Old 11th Mar 2010, 20:40
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Just heard yesterday that Aer Arann has taken back on a few guys that they let go last year(I heard of FO's)

Again nothing to go wild about but at least it is another positive sign and good to see that they may be getting back on track.
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Old 11th Mar 2010, 21:08
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There is actually a glimmer of hope even in europe. However, probably not as much in the UK as the UK got hit much harder than other european countries by the economic crisis. Don't make the mistake by judging all of europe by UK or irish standards both in terms of new jobs and quality of said jobs.

We didn't have to fire pilots and in fact had to hire them lately while we still could use quite a few more but do not have the necessary training capacity at the moment. With the ongoing union negotiations about new working conditions (FTL and the like, not pay) we face still another necessary hiring spree later this year and honestly do not know how we will cope in the summer due to lack of staff, our turboprop subsidiary is currently subchartering capacity because they do not have enough staff to operate one of their planes while the mainline FOs are flying near their maximum duty time. Of course this is only one of many airlines and only one of three or so hiring in germany at the moment whereas many others in europe are in much worse shape and quite a few went bust.
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Old 13th Mar 2010, 15:24
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Well as many pilots up sticks and leave for the sandpit and to other parts of the world, that should surely free up some positions for wannabes at some point be it winter this year or next. Seeing as WWW has been so honest I will be honest too and say that back in late 2007 I regularly had arguments with WWW and called him a doom-monger and various other names but I have to concede he was right. Hats off to him in fact as he called it pretty well. There's a reason I havent posted on this board since the collapse of Lehman's and its not purely because I've had my head stuck in the ATPL books or because I've been stressing over my IR.

I've just finished my MCC and had a pretty immaculate training record yet the prospects of a job out there are dismal. Hoping to keep my hand in as a pilots assistant on a Citation Mustang and flying a piper cub (hardly ideal for keeping the IR skills up but better than nothing). But I will stick in there because sooner or later it will turn (it always does). But I just thought I would apologise to WWW give him his dues because I've seen that he calls it as he sees it rather than the opinion I had of him that he was doing it to wind up wannabes like me!

Last edited by RexBanner; 13th Mar 2010 at 15:37.
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Old 13th Mar 2010, 16:18
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The way I see things(im no expert but I see things from right in the middle of the mix at the moment),there are positions for first officers, but these are very limited, and for the average bod who wants to stay in the UK and bring a family up they are like rocking horse poo.
There are currently only a few ways to get airline employment at the moment.
Heres my experience following recent mass redundency and the requirements to get hired.
a) have over 2000 hours Jet time preferably glass cockpit time, even better if its an airbus, and even better if you speak an additional language or are resident in a country who only take their own nationals.
b) have over 500 hours either on type or are wealthy enough to pay for ones rating and have a a degree.(Korean)
c) the integrated route with a provider who will place you with an airline.(is there such a thing still going)
d) integrated or modular then the Ryan air cadet scheme (not a hope with them as an experienced F.O), or CTC for the likes of Easyjet.
It seems the instructor route,hours building route, or type rating route with some line flying are at least for now not going to provide that lucky break for most.
For anyone who started airline flying within the last 12 to 24 months,who has under 2000 hours total, with less than 1500 hours on type or who has recently qualified, things will be a big struggle.
I have the feeling that the people who need to be most aware of the current and likely future hiring position are those more mature wannabees who intend to go down the modular route and hours build or buy a rating.I wouldnt do it.
It is a terrible place to be at the moment (an unemployed airline pilot) but if you are lucky, have lots of hours on type and or are willing to live somewhere far away from home or be in the same position this time next year, then there are certain jobs.
Is it perking up as WWW states? well I think it depends what he means. If he means that the market as whole is improving then he is not correct, far from it.
If he means that there is a positive blip at the moment then that is correct, but dont be fooled, that is the usual pre summer improvement and overall doesnt reduce the numbers of umemployed pilots long term, with the exception of the middle east.
If you have the experience there are certain contracts out there or 'careers' in Doha, but if your starting out and have a new blue book, without the bank of mum dad behind you then your up the creek without the paddles.If you do have the funds, for goodness sake dont do a type rating unless you have a job offer at the end of it.
I was one of the pre Christmas airline administration casualties and while most if not all of us are now employed its been a tough few months searching. The middle east soaked up about 50 percent of us requiring those 2000 hours, all but a few that were left are on six month contracts with the likes of JET 2, Viking or abroad in deepest darkest Africa, and the odd lucky one got a full time position with an airline.
In six months time lots of us will be signing on again as those contracts finish, then there will be more experienced first officers chasing jobs once again. Is it picking up ,overall the answer is no, its just a bit of a small wave at the moment, the summers coming so people have been taken on, those same people will be making the new year 2011 up turn look good again too, after Christmas on the dole. In the mean time , we have a budget to come as well as an election in the UK with the resulting cuts to attempt to drag us out of our near bankrupt state;together with the real possibility of the UKs largest carrier going to the wall and flooding the market with experienced pilots.
And for those currently employed in this uncertain world, I offer this advice, the time from redundency to re employement for those of us who have just been through it has been on average been about 2 to 3 months for a line Capt, and 4 to 5 months for a line F.O. so make sure you have those funds set aside to feed your nearest and dearest.
In summary, there is movement in the middle east for experienced F.O.s and there are temp contracts for F.O.s in Europe, but for wanabees, its same ole same ole.
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Old 13th Mar 2010, 16:47
  #36 (permalink)  
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RexBanner - good to see you again and congratulations on completing your training. No apologies are needed. You contributed to the cut and thrust of a debate that was illuminating for many Wannabes. That was the whole point and not who was right or wrong. Long experience has taught me that there's nothing like a heated debate to draw people in and expound their viewpoint. Hopefully this creates the wisdom of crowds and everybody gains.

Good luck with your job hunting. Its gonna be tough but then they're still building new airliners faster than they're scrapping them so its not Mission Impossible. Not quite.

WWW
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Old 15th Mar 2010, 00:22
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Well I disagree with WWW. If you are a UK based wanabee things still look rubbish and are likely to remain so. The UK has solved none of its problems. The banks still have to refinance over GBP400bn of debt over the next 2-3 years (realistically only the government can fund this adding to their already huge debt pile). If sterling continues to weaken the likes of Ryan air and Easy have to suffer as the cost of those European weekends away goes through the roof.

A hung parliament will be a disaster and as sterling collapses the UK airlines will only suffer as fares have to increase and the cost of those overseas holidays goes up. A strike from BA can only compound their problems. I reckon we are 1 crisis down... 2 to go...

1) Financial crisis: Blame the bankers.... it is all their fault
2) Political crisis: hmmm maybe it wasn't all the bankers fault... lets blame the politicians (watch for this later this year/early 2011 when they start to cut public spending... I pity whoever wins this election)
3) Social unrest and ultimately social reform.... hmmm maybe it is the general public living beyong their means that is the problem... geeez maybe we should borrow less and save more?? Revolution!

The UK has more debt now than it did coming in to this crisis and the problem is solved??
I left the UK 2-3 years ago and have lived in the middle east and Asia since.... there are oppotunities here but it is becoming tougher and tougher as an expat to get you foot in the door as these markets mature the nod will always be given to locals first. I would love to agree with WWW but sorry way too soon to sound the all clear.
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Old 15th Mar 2010, 03:01
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I would love to agree with WWW but sorry way too soon to sound the all clear.
I don't think sounding the all clear was WWW's intention. Personally I think the thread title sums up what he's getting at, and I tend to agree.

The key words are 'glimmer' and 'maybe'. Who knows... No one, yet.
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Old 15th Mar 2010, 08:13
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Grass Strip Flyer, couldn't agree with you more.
The housing market is still grossly overpriced and not likely something that any government is going to want to face up to for a long time yet, that will be the real pain for this country, when the true value of the housing market is realised it will make the bank crisis seem like child's play!
We have a car industry that has been falsely propped up and is likely to falter/crash when the cash for scrap scheme ends and airlines are still struggling. Interests rates on CC's at a high compared to base rates, untold debt that hasn't been paid back and unemployment set to rise further still.

I like to see the glass half full but in this case I can't even see any milk.

Wannabes should wait another 6 months to a year before STARTING training and then only with other options to live on at the end of the course. Although I wouldn't recommend this job to any relative/friend of mine but that's another story.....
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Old 15th Mar 2010, 19:07
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remember the retirement bulge as well
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