A glimmer of hope maybe
 

Now some of you may have noticed that I have been a little Bearish of late. <cough>

But. Just this last couple of days, with a million caveats, I have detected faint tremors of hope for Wannabes. The odd friend who got a private jet job, the redundant old chum now offered a 777 job, the whiff of a pilot shortage for the fast encroaching summer season at some well known UK airlines.

There's a lot of dirty brown water to get under the bridge, make no mistake. But, maybe its just the daffodils going to my head, for the first time in a long while I see just a few signs of optimism for Wannabes.

I tend to get shot down for being counter to the prevailing wisdom and I see no reason to expect differently now.. ;)


WWW

www are you sure you're feeling ok? I can recommend a good doctor ;)

I read far fewer stories of airlines going under and far more of airlines making investments in their fleets and infrastructure, albeit much of it is long range. Add to that the IATA starting to report growth in traffic over last year. I won't jump up and shout recovery, but maybe the tide is starting to turn.

I wouldn't rule out that politicians or big money might set things back again due to greed, arrogance, stupidity or just strategic miscalculations though. Greece and other vulnerabilities in the Euro zone are worrisome, not to mention the weakening appetite for US Government debt. There are a few worries about sovereign debt and then there's the avaricious over-building on the sands of Dubai. Wasn't it said the wise man builds his house on the rock?

I do feel slightly giddy but todays Spring sunshine has perhaps had an effect.

I foretold the credit crunch, the HPC and and the severity of the recession. If I can follow through and predict the recovery then truly I am Vince Cable amongst mere Men... I'm probably wrong. The situation is probably as awful as I secretly fear it to be.

WWW

WWW, don't build their hopes up too much! Yes things are very slowly getting better, some airlines are expanding ever so slightly, there will always be retirees and other attrition meaning that there will be recruitment. But the numbers we are talking about will only be ones and twos. Nothing to go re-mortgaging your parents house for.

If I were to stick my neck out, I'd say things will be going in the right direction when banks are prepared to lend at LIBOR plus 3-4% (and not their current 10%), interest (Base) rates are at 3-4% and the economy is still growing.

And for the final damping, those who will get the jobs first will be those with the right face, the appropriate rating and reasonable experience.

PM

Piltdown Man,

When you say things will be going in the right direction when banks will lend at Libor plus 3-4% instead of 10%, what sort of loan purpose are you speaking of? BBVA make flight training loans for CTC, FTE and OAA at 90-day Libor plus 2.25%, a rise of .25% from what they charged pre-recession.

I would say when Libor is up to 3-4%, things will be heading in the right direction. A growing economy will mean more people are more willing to borrow, whether for a mortgage or other wants/needs. People wanting property will jump in when they think prices are on the rise for good. Demand for loans will drive up interest and we'll know recovery is in motion.

The only bank I know of charging high interest for flight training loans is NatWest. Their rate is unethical in my opinion, ranging anywhere from base rate plus 4% secured up to base plus 7% unsecured. It's bad enough when a recession leads to defaults, but with this loan, recovery could lead to defaults!

My own personal acid test (and I profess to know nothing about the economy) as to when the tide has turned is when BA start recruiting again.

L Met

WWW.

indeed the industry does seem to be showing signs of a thin skin forming, i wouldnt say 'solidifying' just yet.

I really dont think things will change for better until there is some degree of faith in the fiscal policies of government and that wont happen until we see the back of the current bunch of imbeciles in charge of the asylum.

the current bunch of idiots have a hard on for cap and trade and decrying anything aviation for the huggy fluff vote and to support the ludicrous CO2 cap and trade folly.

I sincerely hope that following the General Election we see an administration more 'pro' business than taxing everything in sight. Once that happens and there is faith in the fiscal policies of the UK administration aviation may well start to recover somewhat.

likewise, I too will gaze at the daff's when they pop through the crusty ground and hope that soon this industry may start to defrost in some sunlight.

I think everyone knows that the retirement bulge is now imminent, just like it has been for the last twenty five years, so there are going to be loads of jobs :ok:

I being a wannabe and reading what WWW had just posted. My initial reaction was. Ecstatic! :eek:

It's really one step removed from you wannabe's - but I can tell you guys that out here in the sandpit, the pilot shortage is really starting to bite the employers hard

Air Arabia hasn't stopped hiring throughout all this chaos of the last couple years, and there's all of a sudden some very interesting contract jobs coming up, the turkish carriers (THY and Onur) both recruiting hard, a bunch of south americans have resigned and gone home in the last few days because Lan chile / Lan peru starting a massive hiring binge and a couple of new startups in Brazil with some serious money backing them. There's just a few holes appearing in the recruitment dike all of a sudden, and new deliveries of aircraft haven't slowed down yet. Read all the bitching in the ME forum, every single one of us is on our absolute maximum rolling 900-hours-in-12-months all of a sudden and they can't get new people into the seats fast enough.

Like I say none of this affects you guys directly in terms of sending CVs to EK/EY/QR because they still won't hire people without significant heavy jet time, but everyone who leaves a European lo-co or whatever and comes out here, is vacating a seat that you can hopefully fill :ok:

aww so i wasn't crazy to talk about *some* recovery after all :) good luck to us all!

Wannabe, have you tried EZY through CTC?

The adverts section in Flight last week carried ads for all the big Integrated FTOs advertising their courses. Haven't seen that for a while. Made me double take.

The one bit of credit you have to give to Oxford, was that they launched their APP course to coincide with the first "graduates" finishing just as the last upswing occurred. Which I don't beleive for one minute was coincidence.

But as was said above, until BA & Virgin open their doors...

Luke’s comments tie in with the word on our grapevine, that opportunities are opening up in sandy places for those with a couple of thousand hours of jet or glass TP time. If that’s the case, it would suggest movement further down the ladder within a year or two.

Personally, being an old cynic, I think the spring sunshine has got to WWW and he’s just overdosed on vitamin D. ;)

I agree. The fact remains that far more pilots are losing their jobs than those that are being GAINFULLY employed.

I had to read the OP twice........ WWW I too am concerned.


It's a cycle, pilot management can never get it right. Like a few others I think a few UK carriers have cut their numbers fine. Always embarrassing to explain why aircraft are on the ground or flights are being sub-chartered.

But before people start signing away hundreds of thousands there is still a lot of meat in the sausage machine. It takes at least four to six months to get a cadet on to the line - the training funnel.

WWW I have just enrolled at Oxford after your message here, thanks - full package now, streamrolling, Zero to Hero, + TR on both 737 and Airbus, which is best? 320 or 380?

I feel like I have just won the lottery after the positive message here on PPRUNE, it must surely be the current siberian polar continental that has swept over and created a low level isothermal inversion WWW.

It's never to late for the glass to be half full, instead of half empty! :E

Is it best to pay all the training up front or pay in tiny increments?

Pay up front of course.. get a loan secured on your house, the wife and kiddies will love it when you get snapped up by BA on 150k per annum without even dipping your toes in a hold pool.*





*Note: this is of course sarcasm.