Base Training, Command Courses, POS18 and job cuts
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That's not correct. US carriers are following their contracts.
It is true they've avoided layoffs (which will probably happen anyway) through the use of voluntary compensated leave schemes (to include early retirements with significant compensation). But when push comes to shove they will have to follow the contract and layoff by seniority. As will elements of CX stationed in the US. And this IS enforceable.
It is true they've avoided layoffs (which will probably happen anyway) through the use of voluntary compensated leave schemes (to include early retirements with significant compensation). But when push comes to shove they will have to follow the contract and layoff by seniority. As will elements of CX stationed in the US. And this IS enforceable.
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Not if the intent was to evade the contractural terms by so doing (i.e. closing a base to evade furloughing in order of seniority mandated by an existing contract would almost certainly generate a claim and a quagmire--kind of like skipping town to avoid paying a bill). Yes; right of return on an expensive contract.
After they are back in HKG you offer the new and improved COS to everybody and from there you proceed with redundancies.
Getting back to HKG permanently on expat terms sounds exceedingly implausible to me. We will all see in the end, just seems to me this is about to get very ugly and very “unfair”, so to speak.
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Would have to agree this will be the end of B scale for all Sabrina, not just KA.....
OR, ram through the 'new and improved' COS in HKG, THEN close the bases. Given that COS08 would no longer exist, based pilots would have the choice of returning to HKG on the new COS or taking redundancy under their existing COS.
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Too many people projecting wishful thinking and Western legal values that amount to nothing in HK. In addition, I find it laughable that there are somehow assumptions that HK courts still amount to anything, as if the developments in the recent political realm stand completely separate from the economy. They do not. The company viewed the 49ers Incident as a resounding success. The strategic objective was never those unfortunate 49 professionals. The objective was to cow the AOA membership into submission. The company succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. CC could never be effective because too many loose cannons using it for their own ends, undermining the objective. Should have gone for a walkout, it never happened. Ghosts of the 49ers.
There is a template for what comes next. It was deployed during SARS. It is brutally simple. The company will offer voluntary resignation/retirement/redundancy options. These will be the sweetheart deals. The company will consider this its benevolent gesture. After that, they will cut what they need. Since we can already project a dramatic decrease in demand, perhaps somewhere in line with 25-40% immediate reduction in flights at least for the next 12-24 months, that's the number of redundancies they will pursue. The company is well aware of the global picture and understands they can further eviscerate the ranks by rehiring pilots on direct entry options if there is a rebound. The company will focus on cutting from the top. In the accounting department, a pilot's a pilot's a pilot. Your umpteen years experience counts for nothing. Your safety record, your stellar employment history, awards... no one cares.
The company tipped its hand when they announced a recall of several cadet classes in February, and then reversed the decision a few days later. It's crystal clear what is going to happen next. Do yourselves a favor, stop projecting your wishes, apply what you learned along your long and hard-earned career to your own life circumstance and pretend your aircraft has just lost both engines and all power. Act accordingly. Stop wishful thinking. It's weak.
There is a template for what comes next. It was deployed during SARS. It is brutally simple. The company will offer voluntary resignation/retirement/redundancy options. These will be the sweetheart deals. The company will consider this its benevolent gesture. After that, they will cut what they need. Since we can already project a dramatic decrease in demand, perhaps somewhere in line with 25-40% immediate reduction in flights at least for the next 12-24 months, that's the number of redundancies they will pursue. The company is well aware of the global picture and understands they can further eviscerate the ranks by rehiring pilots on direct entry options if there is a rebound. The company will focus on cutting from the top. In the accounting department, a pilot's a pilot's a pilot. Your umpteen years experience counts for nothing. Your safety record, your stellar employment history, awards... no one cares.
The company tipped its hand when they announced a recall of several cadet classes in February, and then reversed the decision a few days later. It's crystal clear what is going to happen next. Do yourselves a favor, stop projecting your wishes, apply what you learned along your long and hard-earned career to your own life circumstance and pretend your aircraft has just lost both engines and all power. Act accordingly. Stop wishful thinking. It's weak.
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Just playing devils advocate here but, why wouldn’t they get them back on an expensive contract if the intent is to make people redundant?
After they are back in HKG you offer the new and improved COS to everybody and from there you proceed with redundancies.
Getting back to HKG permanently on expat terms sounds exceedingly implausible to me. We will all see in the end, just seems to me this is about to get very ugly and very “unfair”, so to speak.
After they are back in HKG you offer the new and improved COS to everybody and from there you proceed with redundancies.
Getting back to HKG permanently on expat terms sounds exceedingly implausible to me. We will all see in the end, just seems to me this is about to get very ugly and very “unfair”, so to speak.
To be candid were I a manager (since they're such a small fraction of the operation) I'd probably avoid the potential quagmires altogether and leave the bases alone until things get shook out in HKG well downline; this would also give me some flexibility depending on how things relit in the airline world. And would give me downline some plausibility to avoid opening up a can of worms in the jurisdictions regarding contracts and motivations for closures. But I'm not and don't pretend to be so's haven't got a clue what'll happen one way or another.
I WOULD have some type of exit strategy or plan for whatever might transpire though.
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Right.
And if nobody signs Pos18 or whatever they throw at us, they're going to crew the flights with the 500 guys who are already on it, 90% of whom are Second Officers.
Get a grip!
When I think that only 3 months ago, you were all complaining about the guys who "accepted ****ty deals" or "eroded the contract" by joining on POS18.
If you guys now accept any ****ty deal thrown at you because you're scared in the short term. THINK about the long term effects. You're going to have a ****ty contract for the remaining 5/10/15/20 years of your career!
And if nobody signs Pos18 or whatever they throw at us, they're going to crew the flights with the 500 guys who are already on it, 90% of whom are Second Officers.
Get a grip!
When I think that only 3 months ago, you were all complaining about the guys who "accepted ****ty deals" or "eroded the contract" by joining on POS18.
If you guys now accept any ****ty deal thrown at you because you're scared in the short term. THINK about the long term effects. You're going to have a ****ty contract for the remaining 5/10/15/20 years of your career!
If they did decide to cut from the bottom, would it be only expats? How would the immigration department view locals being chopped and expats keeping their job? Or does the seniority factor override this?
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Dream On
Come on people..... I thought you are smart individuals!
We all know that they are going to attack the "heavy weights" in this company. Please don't fool yourselves to think that this airline will not be able to function without 500 less Captains. They will have a "trainer's deal" that will keep them training.
We have many many capable senior FO's that will hang around and be upgraded. They have about 6-12 months to get people trained up. Look at what they are doing now, SO/JFO/CAPT courses are on the go...... think people.
ARAPA is a thing of the past! All the cushy contracts in KA are gone! ARAPA will be gone! Bases closed down ( but welcome to HK )! Cos18 or job cuts!
If you don't like it or agree to it then here is 3 months! BYE BYE.
We all know that they are going to attack the "heavy weights" in this company. Please don't fool yourselves to think that this airline will not be able to function without 500 less Captains. They will have a "trainer's deal" that will keep them training.
We have many many capable senior FO's that will hang around and be upgraded. They have about 6-12 months to get people trained up. Look at what they are doing now, SO/JFO/CAPT courses are on the go...... think people.
ARAPA is a thing of the past! All the cushy contracts in KA are gone! ARAPA will be gone! Bases closed down ( but welcome to HK )! Cos18 or job cuts!
If you don't like it or agree to it then here is 3 months! BYE BYE.
I thought you are smart..
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Short Term
Right.
And if nobody signs Pos18 or whatever they throw at us, they're going to crew the flights with the 500 guys who are already on it, 90% of whom are Second Officers.
Get a grip!
When I think that only 3 months ago, you were all complaining about the guys who "accepted ****ty deals" or "eroded the contract" by joining on POS18.
If you guys now accept any ****ty deal thrown at you because you're scared in the short term. THINK about the long term effects. You're going to have a ****ty contract for the remaining 5/10/15/20 years of your career!
And if nobody signs Pos18 or whatever they throw at us, they're going to crew the flights with the 500 guys who are already on it, 90% of whom are Second Officers.
Get a grip!
When I think that only 3 months ago, you were all complaining about the guys who "accepted ****ty deals" or "eroded the contract" by joining on POS18.
If you guys now accept any ****ty deal thrown at you because you're scared in the short term. THINK about the long term effects. You're going to have a ****ty contract for the remaining 5/10/15/20 years of your career!
Short term thinking will inevitably backfire.. You want proof, simply look at how CX is managed, who they choose as managers and the resultant 27 years of chaos.
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Flex. You just stated the main point that everyone tends to forget at their peril. The fact that this has been going on now for 27 years. Anyone who loses sight of that will inevitably make the wrong decisions. Unfortunately, I now fear that circumstances have provided the company with exactly the trigger they've long been hoping for to justify their all out final assault on the conditions and pay at CX.
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A clear indication that redundancies will happen is that CX did not take the HKG government financial aid package which would have required CX to keep everyone employed until October.
And yes, closure of all bases could be a possibility.
Last edited by GTC58; 12th May 2020 at 19:26.
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Costs a lot to make non-POS18 redundant - have to pay out leave and then 6 months pay. In 6 months there will be enough flying to need most (not all) of the current pilots.
POS18 pilots cheap to make redundant with immediate cost savings. Most POS18 aircrew are SOs and JFOs. Not as useable as Relief FOs and Capts. If aircrew are make redundant it will be last on, first off.
CPA, Dragon, CX Express and Air HKG. 4 sets of staff and IT etc to run 4 operators. One set of staff and IT could do it all.
ARAPA would take months to unwind even if by force, so in the long term on the block but no quick cash flow fix. Announce a change of policy. ARAPA cuts in a years time (as per the policy) hoping to trigger resignations from non-POS18 pilots.
Company already paying for SIMs, acft and BTCs, so might as well continue with training as the extra cost is stuff all.
My punt: 20 - 30% pay cut for HKG aircrew for 4 - 5 months. Amalgamation of over lapping back office roles, so more Hello Kitty redundancies. Voluntary redundancy package.
POS18 pilots cheap to make redundant with immediate cost savings. Most POS18 aircrew are SOs and JFOs. Not as useable as Relief FOs and Capts. If aircrew are make redundant it will be last on, first off.
CPA, Dragon, CX Express and Air HKG. 4 sets of staff and IT etc to run 4 operators. One set of staff and IT could do it all.
ARAPA would take months to unwind even if by force, so in the long term on the block but no quick cash flow fix. Announce a change of policy. ARAPA cuts in a years time (as per the policy) hoping to trigger resignations from non-POS18 pilots.
Company already paying for SIMs, acft and BTCs, so might as well continue with training as the extra cost is stuff all.
My punt: 20 - 30% pay cut for HKG aircrew for 4 - 5 months. Amalgamation of over lapping back office roles, so more Hello Kitty redundancies. Voluntary redundancy package.
Last edited by controlledrest; 13th May 2020 at 00:54.
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Expat housing is an enormous cost for the company. There are career FO's accross the airlines who are making more in housing alone per year than captains make in total in other airlines. No doubt management would love to cut it severely, that's the unfortunate reality.
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Funny to see junior pilots who are scared of losing their job transpose their wishful thinking into "facts" or "realities".
The fact is nobody knows what is going to happen.
The fact is the benefits of trimming ARAPA would only bear fruit 12 months later.
The fact is that redundancies would benefit the cash position in the long term, not in the short term.
And who knows how long it will take for the demand to recover. Years? Perhaps. But the capacity could fall faster than the demand if other airlines keep on cutting their routes.
Remember SARS? Nobody predicted such a quick recovery.
The bases took a temporary 20% pay cut. If I had to speculate, I would guess that's what's coming.
I would happily take the hit to save YOUR job.
Keep on pissing us old farts off and maybe LIFO wouldn't look like such a bad idea.
The fact is nobody knows what is going to happen.
The fact is the benefits of trimming ARAPA would only bear fruit 12 months later.
The fact is that redundancies would benefit the cash position in the long term, not in the short term.
And who knows how long it will take for the demand to recover. Years? Perhaps. But the capacity could fall faster than the demand if other airlines keep on cutting their routes.
Remember SARS? Nobody predicted such a quick recovery.
The bases took a temporary 20% pay cut. If I had to speculate, I would guess that's what's coming.
I would happily take the hit to save YOUR job.
Keep on pissing us old farts off and maybe LIFO wouldn't look like such a bad idea.