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Bases are history

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Bases are history

Old 30th Mar 2018, 00:53
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,544
Something important to consider: nearly every single person that has left CX has NOT regretted their decision. In fact, they almost to a person comment on how much better their life is. CX is finished as a career airline. Brought down by an incestuous, venal and abjectly foolish and incompetent management. Due to the fatal flaw in the Swire business model (impose rigid minded and out of touch 'oxbridge' graduates who think they know everything but ultimately know nothing) CX is doomed to fail due to the industry and methods changing constantly. With the Swire's running CX, there is no hope of overcoming an industry that has left them behind. Save your career, leave CX.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 04:02
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: here
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Originally Posted by Trafalgar View Post
Save your career, leave CX.
So who are you with again?
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 04:13
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: North America
Posts: 4
I was thinking the same thing.

Many state that CX is done and there are better options out there. Supposedly those who choose to stay are foolish.

But they're still here.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 05:13
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: HK-CRoC
Posts: 607
Industry Leading ?

Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post
In their defense, haven’t heard them claim to be ‘industry leading’, at least not for a very long time. They do, however, claim to be a ‘career airline’ which is absolutely not the case for those joining since the GFC. They are rapidly taking those who joined before the GFC and destroying those ‘careers’ as well.
They are absolutely "Industry Leading" and are dominant in the "losses from Fuel Hedging" category..
No one will ever beat them... They should get a Nobel prize for this.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 22:50
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,544
Hong Kong buyers flock to Lohas Park apartment sale despite 19.9 per cent increase in asking price | South China Morning Post

...I've got a great idea, let's cancel bases and force our pilots to live in a city where prices are rising 19.9% in a WEEK on property for sale! And at the same time, suggest cutting housing allowance (and for pilots since 2010, effectively not even give them ANY real allowance). I can't imagine why that wouldn't be an attractive state of affairs to plan moving half way around the world for, and subject your family to effective poverty (while all the time living like a rat an a small cage), and NEVER being able to afford to purchase a home of your own. Management at their brilliant best
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 15:28
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 306
Presently there are 3258 officers on the Master Seniority List. Of those 2671 are based in Hong Kong. Approx 18% of all officers are based, however this is a shrinking number due to upcoming retirements and resignations. If there ever was a time to close the bases, well ....... I would.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 16:03
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 1998
Posts: 835
Yes, that would be the most effective way to convince anyone still wavering about leaving to pack their bags and go. Knowing our management they will add that to their long list of “own goals”.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 16:20
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: No where
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Interesting numbers. Of the 2671 based in HK, I would safely assume that about 1500 of those are actively pursuing other employment overseas. Of the remaining 1100 or so, most are the senior people who are leaving in the next 24-36 months (very few will go to 65), or very junior SO's who are presently coming to terms with the mess that is CX, and will in short order conclude that they will need to make career plans elsewhere. The airline is collapsing from within, so our competitors really should just sit on their hands and allow the incompetent and blind CX managers do their job for them. Few pilots will allow their careers to go to waste. Staying at CX will almost certainly guarantee that outcome.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 17:34
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 306
Air Profit

I think your numbers are highly inflated. There are 961 Captains based in HKG. Not many of those will leave. 1167 FO’s with various experience levels and nationalities and 543 SO’s. In addition to the retirements I would say we could see maybe 250-400 officers leave in the next 24 months. Which is actually a very high resignation rate compared to other airlines.

Btw your retirement projections are totally wrong. I believe in 2009 a US FO went through the trouble to compile a list of retirements age 65 and posted it on the HKAOA forum. The numbers where actually low per year. I don’t have the list handy but as I recall correctly only 2020 and 2021 were breaking over 100 retirements per year. Of course officers can retire before age 65, but even then the numbers are not even close to yours.

I believe most of those leaving at the moment in Hong Kong are on HKPA. The numbers might change if ARAPA will be cut.

Last edited by GTC58; 31st Mar 2018 at 17:46.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 18:17
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
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Originally Posted by GTC58 View Post
Air Profit

I think your numbers are highly inflated. There are 961 Captains based in HKG. Not many of those will leave. 1167 FO’s with various experience levels and nationalities and 543 SO’s. In addition to the retirements I would say we could see maybe 250-400 officers leave in the next 24 months. Which is actually a very high resignation rate compared to other airlines.

Btw your retirement projections are totally wrong. I believe in 2009 a US FO went through the trouble to compile a list of retirements age 65 and posted it on the HKAOA forum. The numbers where actually low per year. I don’t have the list handy but as I recall correctly only 2020 and 2021 were breaking over 100 retirements per year. Of course officers can retire before age 65, but even then the numbers are not even close to yours.

I believe most of those leaving at the moment in Hong Kong are on HKPA. The numbers might change if ARAPA will be cut.
GTC,

Good analysis, but I believe your numbers exclude those on the bases. They are leaving in higher numbers than those in Hong Kong. The captains are generally staying with the exception of a few retirements and freighter guys leaving, but the based FOs are resigning at very high rates. These FOs are generally more senior and experienced. Many have bypassed command or are soon coming up for command. I don’t think CX truly appreciates how much talent and experience they are losing, but they will once those hired on local terms start their courses. Apples and oranges.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 18:30
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Fragrant Harbour
Posts: 306
Yes, my numbers do not include the bases as I was responding to Air Profit who was posting about the Hong Kong based officers.

As for bases I have an opinion for North America only. Canada will continue to see a trickle of Captains retire. None of the FO's are leaving as job opportunities in Canada pay significantly less then CX. As for the US bases, I do not see many US Captains leave as those are a fairly young demographic. As for FO's I don't think we will see many more leave for various reasons.

- Some do not have the 1000 PIC jet/turbo prop and/or degree requirement
- Some are in their 50's and do not want to start over
- Some of the younger FOs have significant financial liabilities which makes the move to a new employer very difficult
- Some are Canadians
- Some want to come to Hong Kong for their Command
- Some, well you know .........

Having said that we might see maybe 10-15 more leave on the US bases in the coming 24 months.

Everyone thinks there are tons of guys leaving on the US bases. This is not the case, if I recall correctly less then 20 officers left in the last 12 months. Which is still a high resignation rate of over 10% for the US base.

Last edited by GTC58; 31st Mar 2018 at 18:40.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 19:30
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
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GTC, they weren't "my" numbers. Perhaps have a more careful read of the full thread, particularly the posts just prior to mine. Regardless, CX is hemorrhaging pilots, and mainly from the middle, overall experienced ranks. The bases are emptying at a higher rate (Sr FO's who won't come back to HK, and realise they must join a mainline carrier in their home countries to have a fulfilling career). CX has passed the crit-point in my opinion, and with our current management has NO hope of recovery. An airline of "wannabe's". The SCMP front page headline is inevitable.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 20:37
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
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Originally Posted by GTC58 View Post
Yes, my numbers do not include the bases as I was responding to Air Profit who was posting about the Hong Kong based officers.

As for bases I have an opinion for North America only. Canada will continue to see a trickle of Captains retire. None of the FO's are leaving as job opportunities in Canada pay significantly less then CX. As for the US bases, I do not see many US Captains leave as those are a fairly young demographic. As for FO's I don't think we will see many more leave for various reasons.

- Some do not have the 1000 PIC jet/turbo prop and/or degree requirement
- Some are in their 50's and do not want to start over
- Some of the younger FOs have significant financial liabilities which makes the move to a new employer very difficult
- Some are Canadians
- Some want to come to Hong Kong for their Command
- Some, well you know .........

Having said that we might see maybe 10-15 more leave on the US bases in the coming 24 months.

Everyone thinks there are tons of guys leaving on the US bases. This is not the case, if I recall correctly less then 20 officers left in the last 12 months. Which is still a high resignation rate of over 10% for the US base.
I think your posts are accurate. However, you cannot know how many will be leaving in the future. Much will depend on the Company. Fail to open more base slots, that many more leave. Take away ARAP(A), that many more leave. Keep guys locked on fleets out of seniority, that many more leave. Allow the CMP to sodomize pilots, that many more gone. Fail to bring PBS online, still more leave. Keep pilots from being able to commute by taking away Ws and compact rosters, bye bye. Hong Kong is not an option at all for some and not a long term option for most. Make no mistake, the Management team is performing CFIT. We are screaming at them, but they aren’t listening.
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Old 31st Mar 2018, 20:47
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
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They aren't listening, and they won't listen. The reason is that they are blinded by their own arrogance. That will never change, as there is no accountability. This airline is headed only one way, straight down. Anyone who hangs on will squander their career potential. Fact.
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Old 1st Apr 2018, 14:45
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: West side
Posts: 22
Originally Posted by controlledrest View Post
Had my Fleet Forum recently. Austin Powers asked when bases would open. He replied never, basing wont happen.

So if you think the company is waiting for the CMP to tell them how to base, you are dreaming. The company knows that bases save them money, but they loose too much control. They are too immoral to comply with 1st world labour laws.

Talk of bases been reviewed once the CMP is in place is just more BS to keep our hopes up and stem the rush to the exit door.

The CMP is all about the company getting more for less. If you think your rosters are bad, just wait to be optimised. Just ask the 747 crews.

Air NZ has the Jepp package. The crew call the optimiser 'The Sodomiser'.

Austin will be DFO within 3 months. AT to be promoted away from her complete failure.

It's been many moons since I walked out of CX City with my dignity in tact so I'm not up-to-date on the latest cast of characters from the shitshow on the 3rd floor. But would this "Austin Powers" character by any chance be a dude by the name of Chris K-----S? I remember the 2 inch gap between his 2 front teeth was the main focal point whilst speaking to him. I swear I was hypnotised by it.
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 05:18
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: By the sea
Posts: 124
1.2 mil hk later, the teeth are fixed.
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 05:35
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 325
Originally Posted by pill View Post
1.2 mil hk later, the teeth are fixed.
The gap was there to accentuate the words "YESSS BOSS"
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 06:07
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: West side
Posts: 22
Originally Posted by pill View Post
1.2 mil hk later, the teeth are fixed.
Good to know Chris has gone Hollywood...even better to know that Chris knew he was ugly!
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 16:22
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: HK-CRoC
Posts: 607
The Plan

Originally Posted by pill View Post
1.2 mil hk later, the teeth are fixed.
It was all part of his 4 year plan to make it 1 more step up the ladder toward the golden chalice (DFO).

Step 1 - Do nothing
Step 2 - Make NO decisions that could even remotely be controversial
Step 3 - Say yes to every request from DFO & GMF
Step 4 - Fix certain facial features
Step 5 - Purchase completely new spiffy wardrobe

In the end, bingo - got the job.. He had the process down pat.

Same plan in the works for the next step up. He will never take no for an answer.
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Old 2nd Apr 2018, 22:26
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: in denial
Posts: 244
Some say he could eat an orange through a tennis racquet
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