Originally Posted by
GTC58
Air Profit
I think your numbers are highly inflated. There are 961 Captains based in HKG. Not many of those will leave. 1167 FO’s with various experience levels and nationalities and 543 SO’s. In addition to the retirements I would say we could see maybe 250-400 officers leave in the next 24 months. Which is actually a very high resignation rate compared to other airlines.
Btw your retirement projections are totally wrong. I believe in 2009 a US FO went through the trouble to compile a list of retirements age 65 and posted it on the HKAOA forum. The numbers where actually low per year. I don’t have the list handy but as I recall correctly only 2020 and 2021 were breaking over 100 retirements per year. Of course officers can retire before age 65, but even then the numbers are not even close to yours.
I believe most of those leaving at the moment in Hong Kong are on HKPA. The numbers might change if ARAPA will be cut.
GTC,
Good analysis, but I believe your numbers exclude those on the bases. They are leaving in higher numbers than those in Hong Kong. The captains are generally staying with the exception of a few retirements and freighter guys leaving, but the based FOs are resigning at very high rates. These FOs are generally more senior and experienced. Many have bypassed command or are soon coming up for command. I don’t think CX truly appreciates how much talent and experience they are losing, but they will once those hired on local terms start their courses. Apples and oranges.