Originally Posted by
GTC58
Yes, my numbers do not include the bases as I was responding to Air Profit who was posting about the Hong Kong based officers.
As for bases I have an opinion for North America only. Canada will continue to see a trickle of Captains retire. None of the FO's are leaving as job opportunities in Canada pay significantly less then CX. As for the US bases, I do not see many US Captains leave as those are a fairly young demographic. As for FO's I don't think we will see many more leave for various reasons.
- Some do not have the 1000 PIC jet/turbo prop and/or degree requirement
- Some are in their 50's and do not want to start over
- Some of the younger FOs have significant financial liabilities which makes the move to a new employer very difficult
- Some are Canadians
- Some want to come to Hong Kong for their Command
- Some, well you know .........
Having said that we might see maybe 10-15 more leave on the US bases in the coming 24 months.
Everyone thinks there are tons of guys leaving on the US bases. This is not the case, if I recall correctly less then 20 officers left in the last 12 months. Which is still a high resignation rate of over 10% for the US base.
I think your posts are accurate. However, you cannot know how many will be leaving in the future. Much will depend on the Company. Fail to open more base slots, that many more leave. Take away ARAP(A), that many more leave. Keep guys locked on fleets out of seniority, that many more leave. Allow the CMP to sodomize pilots, that many more gone. Fail to bring PBS online, still more leave. Keep pilots from being able to commute by taking away Ws and compact rosters, bye bye. Hong Kong is not an option at all for some and not a long term option for most. Make no mistake, the Management team is performing CFIT. We are screaming at them, but they aren’t listening.