The premise behind the whole 'you're safe if you take LWOP" notion is a disgrace.

If CR's are required why is somebody on LWOP exempt? Why does it have to come down to a gamble? If 100 junior people are in danger of being made redundant, and the company are serious about retaining people with a substantial portion of their career ahead of them, why not give them the option of taking LWOP if it is envisaged that their departure is ACTUALLY required?

I don’t think anyone at the top is particularly comfortable right now.

For those sweating CR, remember the company has repeatedly said that CR will be viewed as a failure on their part. After VR there is still the option to apply “flexibility” to the EA. Whatever that means.

Nope! Not at all.

The company has stated they have a surplus of 190 pilots in mainline. This does not include anyone due to retire by the 1st July 2022. If that is say 58 pilots, the real surplus here is 190 + 58 = 248.

The 190 surplus pilots are being targeted by the VR program. LWOP will not affect this. LWOP is being used to manage the short to medium term pilot surplus (refer Q56 in the FAQ document).

If they do not get 190 pilots by the VR offer, they will start CR's. LWOP will not affect this.

For what its worth, if the most recently hired LH SO's all take LWOP, the company will be going up the list, and the next people in line were hired in Jan 2009.

Because the company is playing an IR game. Get as many people on LWOP ASAP to reduce the cost base of QF international.

I took a divisor cut when Dixon asked the pilots to raise $8m. Other second officers didn’t.

I took LWOP and went to Jetstar for 6 years. These same Second Officers didn’t.

I went to short haul and these guys have stayed on as second officers and we’re recently awarded FO slots in long haul.


Ive done my bit. In 12 years I’ve done my bit,

I want to name names, but I won’t.

Why can’t they all just piss off take LWOP and help out, but, as it’s proven before, they won’t. And they know who they are.

Why not just get CR’d? Money in your pocket and then a guarantee of sorts, when/if things pick up in the next few years you have to be re-employed, before brand newbies?! Just going on LWOP plays into the Co’s Hands!

So if CR is unavoidable, why are they offering LWOP at all? It would be cheaper to CR the most junior.

I don't actually agree.

Making 100 junior pilots CR compared to having A LOT of pilots on LWOP + doing CR eventually is a bigger saving to the company.

Not as cheap as CR for the most junior, and LWOP for the rest.

As you pointed out, this is clearly being driven by IR and the aim appears to scare junior members onto LWOP, and I think it’s to avoid paying CR.

Time will tell I guess, have a good weekend.

I realise that. But until JK or whatever new version Scomo comes up with runs out I won’t be taking LWOP. I’ve taken LWOP twice back post GFC to “save redundancy”......I’m done with it. If it gets to CR for me after 17 years then so be it. Pay me my cash and I’m out of here

Being CR’d means you’re no longer an employee and you’re no longer with the group. The company has no responsibility for you and won’t look after your welfare. Yes, you are first to be hired when it picks up but that means having HR approve more recruitment which may not happen for a while. Any pilot getting made CR would only pick up a few weeks pay anyway.

Better to be on the inside looking out than vice versa. As the most junior are 330 and 787 SOs they’ll be the first back once international flying resumes if the remain within the system, if they’re on the outside looking in it may be a long time.

That was addressed recently. LH and SH are separate. CR would only affect LH pilots as that is where the surplus is.

Wouldn't it be nice if the company provided a little transparency on the numbers interested in the VR EOI. But lets be honest with ourselves..

With the LWOP get out of jail free card needing to commence prior to the binding VR submissions, a calculated decision is a risky move...but lets crunch the numbers and see how we go -


If you were 63 or older as of July 1 - Lets rule out those who would be silly not to take the elusive "Retirement Package" Approx 50 pilots


60 to 61 - 65

61 to 62 - 59

62 to 63 - 50

Gives you approximately - 170 who would be considering the package very closely. Now I don't have the data on LHvSH age split, but for arguments sake lets assume 20% are SH pilots who are ineligible - Left with around 140 give or take.


Then you have the 60-61 year olds who may run the gamble of holding out and getting back into a seat for 12-18 months (Im assuming most would be 380 pilots who may face 2-3 years on the bench and get a call up at 63-64)

- Holding a class 1, passing the line training on a different fleet after 3 years off and getting the boot without a severance would be a hard and sad way to go out.


Then you have the 55+ crew who will be happy with a few hundred thousand to hang up the wings and continue with their side career or those who just want to enjoy retirement fairly comfortably.


In my opinion I believe the 190 figure will be surpassed. Will the company approve more than 190? No.

Will there be a need for CR? No.

Will the company push for EA negotiations to get more crew stood up when the time comes? Yes

Can they put a date on when these "temporary" variations conclude? No, but this will be monitored extremely closely.


The data above represent figures to 2025 regarding retirements turned into VR

Its no secret that natural attrition will come into play excessively in the years that follow.

2026-2030 - 400


By the time to VR and early retirement has played out we would've reduced the pilot body by around 250 pilots.

2000 will remain reduced to 1600 by 2030 (20%) *Recruitment door closed for several years one would assume.


The company has done what they do best...cast doubt in ones mind. Who can forget the threat of a seperate entity to fly Sunrise only a handful of months ago! the same has happened here. Take LWOP and pass up your leave accruals and we will give you a golden ticket just incase we need to run a CR.


Keg - You seem to have your finger on the pulse - Happy to have your thoughts?


Its a horrid time for our industry and this WILL pass - Stay safe and look after eachoth...sorry I've watched too many Town Halls :)



Fuji

Fujiroll76

Are you suggesting that someone over 60, who has time off due to the present downturn, is incapable of passing their medical and getting through a new type course?

Sorry KZ Kiwi, I thought you were in NZ. I suppose you’re from NZ But in AUS.

I think someone asked if JobKeeper would be paid to those who voluntarily take LWOP (as opposed to the current stand down provisions).
There is not a chance in hell the government would allow this. That $1500 a fortnight would instantly vanish the day you commence LWOP (including any further extension in some sort of potential Aviation keeper form)

I'm still confused about what protections you'd have as a junior pilot who takes LWOP now, only to return in 12 months and be CR soon after if the business is still down? Why not say as a group "if CRs are going to commence, then we will enforce LWOP in reverse seniority? Seems much fairer

Unless you are on the bottom of the list

Fuji, not sure I understand your hypothesis.
I agree that all SH pilots are ineligible for VR, but as there are no SH pilots in LH where does the 20% come from?

You sure about that?

https://coronavirus.fairwork.gov.au/...bkeeper-scheme

HR even confirmed that you are entitled to JobKeeper whilst on LWOP. What HR did say is that they are not sure if it would continue with any extension to JobKeeper, or a new wage subsidy that the government brings in.

That may have been TLS’s/managements wish or interpretation, but I’m not sure it’s as cut and dry as ‘you’re in SH, you’re safe’...

See WK’s post on Qrewroom.

this.
sadly.

but it probably depends on your lawyers bill size