People are talking about the bottom few hundred going on LWOP and most probably they will.
I agree that if the flying pick up they can heavy crew until they come back.
Has anyone thought, I bet QF hasn’t, about the significant loss of senior Captains on the A380?
Chances are about half will go in the next few months. A good deal of the 400 guys and gals as well.
Also a sizeable chunk of A330 and a handful of 787 Captains.
Meanwhile we still have the same number of airframes hibernating. Ok, minus the 400.
But what if the flying really picks up? A vaccine comes along? There are 100-200 in the pipeline.
Talk about being caught with your pants down!
How long to train up a A380 Captain and all the residual slots?
Sound silly? Just as silly as suggesting in January that the whole aviation industry would be shutdown by March?

you reckon the A380 is coming back?

I certainly don't. Otherwise they would be parked in Alice Springs with the Singapore Airlines and Scoot aircraft. They are going to the US, in my opinion because in three years time it will be expensive to find A380 ferry crew and QF will no longer have the capability to ferry them overseas themselves.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a20fc29a20.jpg

Apparently the humidity is much less in Arizona compared to Alice Springs.

Plus A380 engineers are readily available nearby in LA for ongoing maintenance

That is what Qantas said anyway.

They'll be back.

They Should be back. If not they are with all the other QF Jets that never came back

Will they be back? I don’t know.
Back in January I didn’t know that the whole aviation industry would be shut down in a few months either.
Does anyone know what aviation will be like next January?
What I do know is that by then Qantas won’t have enough A380 Captains if they do want to reactivate them.
Infact Qantas won’t have a sizeable chunk of their senior Captains?
And they can’t get them back either!
Silly??

I’d say QF have made the smart play here. They don’t have to move them anywhere if they never come back. In my stupid opinion we won’t see them again. This pandemic has already taken away so much from an industry that we all love dearly.

I reckon Qantas want the A380s back. The longer this goes on the less likely that is though. I suspect Qantas will invest in them for the next couple of years in the hope they’ll be needed and kick the can on making a final decision down the road for a while.

There are about 50 A380 Captains over 60. Half the number of A380 Captains so about 6 aeroplanes worth. They could bring back 6 A380s and still not need additional crew. Probably enough notice to train up other crew if they intend on bringing additional A380s back.

There are 44 A330 Captains over 60. About 18% of the total A330 Captains. Similarly I reckon the ramp up would be slow enough that we’d be able to cover for the additional crew if eventually all the A330s are required.

All good points Keg!
Its all a guess isn’t it?
My point is that once those highly trained, qualified line Captains are gone they’re gone!
Can’t get them back if they wanted to. Take time to train up other crew. Take time to replace the replacements.
Who knows???

When has Qantas ever got their Pilot numbers right?

there was one month back in 2006 that i recall

With 3 years to plan I don’t think time is really a factor.
It’s not as through the 380 crew that may finally get stood up will just shave off their beards and step onto a flightdeck anyway.

Find it cute anyone would use the word "plan" at this stage of happenings.
Hope, anticipate, extrapolate, propose, target, project and a whole bunch of other words maybe - but "plan"?

Parallel universe.

Cheers

I find it comical that anyone really believes the A380 will come back...in your dreams! Gone baby forever and there won’t be a send off because they have been a complete distaster financially for QF since they arrived...

If this is the case, what effect will that have on potential CR’s? Would that surplus of more senior pilots push the bottom guys and girls into CR a couple of years from now? Hope it never happens for everyone’s sake.

Wanna bet?

A quote from AJ;

“The A380 is a crucial part of our long-haul fleet and this upgrade program will see customers enjoy everything the aircraft has to offer for years to come.”

Admittedly before Covid but a big call to write off the fleet with six newly refurbished aircraft done. Effectively a new aircraft with the latest cabin, IFE etc.
The A380 is a unique asset. QF doesn’t have any replacement in terms of capacity or cabin i.e. First Class!
Everyone else is parking their old ones so QF would be wise to keep these spiffy newly refurbed ones available to monopolise routes i.e. USA.
Pity they are just about to send off most of the A380 crew away with a golden hand shake??
Are you going to update your LOP Keg?

Possibly nominating a 3 year period for the A380 is really just another ‘smokescreen’ by the company. A RIN is still required for the B747(but much smaller one due to the offered VR plan). If they were also to add that the A380 would also be retired, the associated RIN or VR/ CR would become very expensive for the company! Post Covid, right aircraft for the right route will become paramount! We really don’t know what aviation will be like in 6 months , so announcing 3 years is very suspect.

I'd love to follow that advice, as I would be keen to take on any trickle of work and don't need the generous certainty that LWOP offers
However, with the sword of Damocles rising higher and higher up the seniority ladder with every other SO that takes LWOP, I feel most of us post 2016 graduates have only one certain choice.