Of course they'll say that on their koolaid dispensary/webinar

Norm, you hit the nail on the head in #903, it IS their train set indeed and this time around they will do as they please and nothing will stop them, not AIPA not ScoMo not the tea lady!!

You are assured a job again when placed on the redundancy list if that future job will operate under your current award. Don’t be surprised to see talk of Tino’s new outsourced international operation come again. There will be new contracts offered for the new international ops if and when that starts up again. Take LWOP. That’s a leg in the door in case this scenario plays out which I think it will to some degree.

The latest email from AIPA suggests that if it moves to CR, it’ll be a long drawn out and expensive process.

The interesting part that will cause AIPA to lose its case is it refers to the LHEA for CR. The LHEA does not cover SHEA pilots. So provisions from the LHEA cannot be used to displace SH. Along with the FWA. Qantas would have done their homework and they don’t usually lose these types of disputes.

If it went down that path and AIPA became hell bent on putting a gun to Shorthaul so that longhaul has somewhere to go, there would be a lot of SH pilots looking for alternative representation.

It’s a mess and I don’t think any Qantas pilot has the stomach for it. Well maybe a few in the ’room’ that seem to want to watch it burn.

I was about to ask if any of the panic merchants had read the AIPA email (great email, by the way) - but it appears the usual suspects have just seen what they wanted to see.

There’s nothing we didn’t already know in the email regarding CR. A challenge would of course be expected. As would the loss of SH members.

i thought the info about LWOP and the process involved was well written, and I hope QF take this on board to assist in people’s decision making. It is blatantly obvious that people should know the results of thenVR/ER process before committing to a course of action, best of luck everyone.

Yes. AIPA will challenge CR if the company try's LH CR only (as expected).

The company can bypass people on LWOP for CR (as expected).

Yup. Best to get your ducks all lined up while you still can.

I and many others are looking forward to you being made redundant Normanton. Hopefully then you will leave this forum to pilots.....

Guys back in late March when a significant portion of you were complaining & whining about the Project Sunrise Contract I said this


Guys the high & mighty Project Sunrise was something for pre global pandemic days

Who could forget the epic photos of QF leaders landing in Honolulu with loud shirts after indulging in a beverage or two
, or was this a delivery flight of the "game changer" . What a truly edifying happy snap that one was, how truly iconic it was for a brief moment. All so hard to remember , there was just so much big talk , so much chest beating & the hype (as well the delays in action & decisions) was just endless

Qantas is not going to order any aircraft for years & PS is dead

Stop dream time it won't help you rebuild your careers & for many that will mean finding either (a) a new airline or (b) a new career

Two years from now you will be doing incredibly well if you have two thirds of your international capacity back

You couldn't even see that international flying was gone for a long time & atm I would think getting 50% back within 4 years would be incredible

You need to accept how things are

1. International flying is gone for a long long time
2. AIPA isn't going to save you , they have lost every court challenge they initiated to QF this century (& there have been many)
3. There will be CRs at Qantas
4. It is unlikely SH will be isolated
5. Your more senior colleague urging you to "hang in there" just want a protective layer beneath them for when the inevitable CRs notices land
6. Any one who joined 2016 & doesn't take at least 3 to 5 years of lwop is either crazy or just not fussed so much
7. I think the CR will go back to early 2000s
8 See it as an opportunity to gain additional skills , quals , a long long surfing trip whatever works for you

The guys urging "hang in there" just an action replay of some of the more vocal domestic guys hanging around afap picket lines back in 1989
"hang in there mate" ; "the need us" , "its all a big bluff , they won't really bring in Americans" well the biggest talkers had already signed the new contracts.
It won't be any different here , some of biggest "just say no" guys will already have submitted their own application

^^

Probably one of the smartest posts I’ve seen so far.

Someone needs to give you a cuddle Telfar. I mean seriously. That’s some of the most epic doomsday, empty glass, pessimistic, negative nelly tripe I’ve ever read.
If you’re actually a pilot I reckon you should get onto pan and talk it over before you convince yourself that you’re actually right!
If QF have to CR back to 2000 that’ll be all of the short haul FOS and most of the SOs gone.

All of your SOs are gone , likely many don't know that (unless they take insurance,lwop)

Well it seems I might have been on the money up to this point , but yes my friend I make many many mistakes every day of my life

I would have thought 50% by March 2024 was an optimistic view

Why don't you share then , where will QF international be 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 years post pandemic (March 2020 start date)

Kick off is June 2021 isn't it ? That's when you start at 0%

Ok Telfer, you really need to take a seat and think. Almost all of what you wrote was fear filled speculation without providing an objective assessment of the situation. It’s what we are meant to do as pilots, no?

How long is long, long? Who knows. From what most estimates and company predictions say is that the 787 and 330 will be mostly on the ground until mid 21 and the 380 until mid 23. You have no evidence of any timeframe longer than that.

No one will require any ”saving”. The Fair Work Commission have said however they’ll be doing as much as they can to ensure businesses have flexibility to ensure they survive and remain profitable during this time, meaning any court actions will probably be in the company’s favour.

There are no forecast redundancies beyond the 190 announced, which, with the lack of flying, everyone believes that VR will take care of. Everyone else remains on stand down until a position is available, as management have said about 100 times.

Here’s the funny thing. You say AIPA isn’t going to save you in court and they lose all cases in point 2 but it’s AIPA who have the view that CR applies to everyone. Again no SH surplus for the entirety of the restructuring timeframe, no redundancy. The company will prevail there, especially with a business friendly FWC. Of course with VR taking care of the surplus wilt won’t come to that at all.

Or it’s more likely they have just been assessing the situation rationally and are offering common sense reasoning to their junior colleagues to avoid panic.

They aren’t crazy or not fussed. Everyone will assess the situation, and there are some who will prefer the definite time period off of LWOP to allow them to plan for a few years rather than to be subject to rotating stand downs which will probably be in place as the 787 and 330 come back to the line. Or they may be ok with that therefore avoid LWOP.

No way. Every 330 and 787 SO when those pilots will start to be required in a year, plus payouts to all of them some of whom are starting to accumulate a bit of time in the company.

Probably your only sensible point. I think a lot of people will look back on these 1-3 years depending on fleet and realise they got a chance to experience another chapter to their working life on their one time on this planet, rather than spend 100% of it in Aviation.

The reason this all Bullsh!t?
If they do the VR and still have a genuine surplus then they should be doing another round of VR and if that’s not affordable then start cutting from the bottom up, regardless of LWOP, just as the EA’s + IA intend. That bypass furphy is only there to get people off the books. Gun to the head- if you like. Just look at what American Airlines announced today. Bodies are going to get dropped everywhere.

normanton

Mate AIPA can challenge a possible LH CR all they like. What you don't understand, is that a genuine redundancy as defined by Fair Work is when a persons job doesn't need to be done by ANYONE. So if the redundant jobs are LH jobs then that is where the CR's will be made if at all. AIPA can't force the company to apply CR across the board simply because the company cannot legally do that . All AIPA can do is ask for a RIN and maybe more VR's to be offered across the pilot group and not just LH.

In so far as your anticipated LWOP get out of gaol card is concerned all I can say is best of luck.

It's not about the LHEA not covering the SHEA, it's about the IA tying the awards and therefor the seniority lists together. Please take the time to read the awards and see how they are entwined.
FWA first responsibility is to protect the agreements negotiated between the employer and the employees, Fair works redundancy provisions are the minimum standard, negotiated outcomes are more binding and override those minimum standards.
If QF was to enter into Voluntary receivership then all bets are off in regards to all agreements. But if it gets to that there are bigger problems than just SH v LH and LWOP.

Where have I once said that AIPA would win a case against the company? I actually don't think they will win the case for the exact reasons you have described.

It's also precisely why bypassing junior crew for redundancy wont be able to be challenged either. For one its in the EBA, but let me provide a timeline:

1) Junior crew takes LWOP to avoid CR
2) Company announces CR
3) Company announces CR for pilots above junior crew on LWOP
4) More senior crew are made redundant because the position is a SURPLUS, and isn't needed to be done by anyone
5) Fast forward 12 months down the track, the junior crew return from LWOP
6) Junior crew either return to their original position (which is now available because there is no SURPLUS), they get stood down because there is no useful work, or they get given CR / sent back on LWOP

It's really that simple. I've said it before and I will say it again. Seniority will not save you. Think wisely.

They won’t fill the vacated SH F/O role with ‘someone else’. It’ll be left blank and empty. There will be enough pilots left in SH to cover the planned flying for at least the next 12 months. Perhaps as much as 18 months depending on vaccine production. Certainly long enough to start bringing pilots back on from CR.

No, I don’t. I suspect Qantas will prefer to leave those crew stood down or to heavy crew the A330 (short conversion to the A330 for the 50 or so A380 Captains remaining after the VR). Short conversion back to A380 or the A350 is coming down range at some stage close to your time frame.

Neither of your scenarios should be perceived as protecting a SH pilot from CR.

There are multiple ways this can all go down. Qantas has articulated it’s preferred route of people talking LWOP to avoid CR. That is just the first of a variety of different options that Qantas may pursue.

By taking LWOP you’re hoping that someone senior to you will be CR’d and you’ll beat them back to work. Again, I point out that if enough people take LWOP then NO ONE needs to be made redundant and you’re likely to come back to work in seniority anyway. IE you’ll be out of the company (no accrual of years of service for staff travel, long service leave trips, etc) for the exact length of time you would have been CR’d anyway.

I’m hopeful after some discussions I had today that the time line issue will be better resolved in the next week or so and S/Os will be able to make a more informed decision post the VR EOIs becoming binding.

No. It’s not that simple. If at step 4, the more senior pilot says ‘instead of making me redundant (circa $60-70K) how about giving me LWOP and I’ll come back when you tell me you want me’. Company says ‘yeah, righto’. The end. Company saves it’s cash both ways (saving both CR and paying accrued annual leave) and the junior pilot on LWOP comes back flying the exact same time they would have if they’d taken the CR package.... except they haven’t accrued anything in the interim!

QANTAS RECRUITMENT THREAD.
19th October, 2016, 17:06

I wondered why you had become so outspoken normanton. 47 posts until February this year. 389 since then covering the LH vote and now this. You're not in it for the good of the pilot body, you're in it for yourself.

There will be some very junior people on here (like yourself) who in these horrible times will unfortunately believe what you write, thinking you are something that you're not, and are looking out for them.

Post the all-knowing knowledge that you think you possess about the Award and it's legal aspects on Qrewroom. I note you haven't. So not only are you selfish, you're gutless.

your self assured FUD campaign here is ridiculous.

your point 6 contradicts your whole premise and highlights why its just a fear campaign to cut leave, at this stage. What makes you think they wouldn't offer more LWOP (like in your point 6) prior to CR, once VR is locked and we know where we stand.
if, after lwop and VR, they wish to CR, why not then drop the number required LWOP and let them go for free instead of paying them out. Makes no sense.

hook.line. sinker

Actually normanton on second thoughts you should take LWOP and encourage as many other junior folk to do the same. Like Keg says the more of you that do that then the less number of positions can be made redundant in your absence.
If the company thinks they have to make 300 S/O positions redundant then if there are 400 S/O on LWOP problem solved. How they can make S/O's on SU CR given that they have more S/O's on LWOP than they have surplus is beyond me.

Imagine being on a flight deck with Normanton and Telfer...wowee absolute flogs.

Lets hope there are two CR's made...how these twits get through has me stumped!!

Well said mmmbop. I've received a few texts today with photos of their posts and a few choice words attached. I can't imagine being brand, brand new and posting such arrogant stuff when you've been around for a second. Had a go at me regarding credibility but it's on show in spades here.

I said it a few days ago but here we go again - do whatever you want. But don't do it thinking you're going to jump someone in the next few years and certainly don't do the ring-around trying to convince people (that are supposed to be your mates) of what you've simply made up with zero relevant information and completely against AIPA's stance of just a few hours ago. Again, I'm no fan of (the current) union but considering they've folded on nearly every fight over the last year or so, do you think they've had a change of heart overnight and gone rogue?

The timeline you've made up (or worse, believed TLS) is completely wrong and doesn't exist anywhere. They must reduce any and all CRs by the use of LWOP and other efficiencies like part-time or EBA changes (I'm paraphrasing); but you've jumped straight to concessions and LWOP. It doesn't work that way. If this goes down the path that TLS is advocating (while admitting that they'd never even thought of it until a handful of SOs emailed them offering to go on LWOP so others ahead of them would be made redundant) then we might as well just rip the relevant pages out of the EBA. Redundancies are complex by design - you/we need to keep it that way. If you make it simple then you're not doing yourself a favour - but your manager will be very, very happy.

You boys be careful, LWOP with no end date is just redundancy without a need to pay you.

An EBA is not worth much in these unprecedented times.

You mean like Air NZ just did?

pretty harsh wishing CR on someone, no matter what your disagreements are

Yep, I don’t want any one to receive a CR. What a sh!t feeling that’d be... :(

How the **** is me discussing a recruitment timeline selfish?

Desperate for anything to try and use against me because you can't argue valid points.

Disgraceful.

Or maybe for once in your career someone junior to you has thrown you a hard dose of reality and you can't take it. Seniority seniority seniority. Yet as soon as the company challengers that in compliance with the EBA you **** your pants.

Keg, I disagree because as mentioned many times by Tino, LWOP numbers will have no affect on the VR/CR numbers (190) required.

It’s pretty sad to see how quickly pilots turn on each other.

How about everyone has a cup of tea, takes a bex and has a lie down..

We are talking about a company that is facing a 50% reduction in size in a market that is not expected to be profitable for at least the next two years. Have I got that right and what are we to do with the excess staff.

Why the rush to get LWOP locked away on 07 Aug, before the VR and ER results are known?

Something isn’t right.

absolutely
its a con job
normanton has bought into the amway and selling furiously to not be alone

Does that happen after you've p*ssed yourself out of fear by signing away the next 1/2/3+ years? All decided before the JobKeeper review, before the VR close, before any subsequent CR target, before early retirement, before short-term EBA changes? Read your own contract!

I have no idea what you're trying to say with "...as soon as the company challengers (sic) that in compliance with the EBA...". How do you challenge something that already complies?

The company has said again and again that they don’t to do CR and I actually believe them. Wana know why? Because it’s expensive. Not only do they have to cough up the CR payment, they have to pay out your leave balances and give you the required notice period all of which burns cash which they are doing everything they can to avoid. It’s why they’re pushing the LWOP card so hard, because it costs nothing.

Im in the bottom 200 numbers so I am firmly in the danger zone. If it comes to it, I’ll go on LWOP as well to avoid redundancy but I’ll be damned if I offer it up to them before they release the VR numbers. There are 2 main reasons for this...

Any future job keeper scheme may exclude people on LWOP. I desperately need that money if I can get it. Interestingly, someone on the webinar actually said they have spoken to the ATO twice and they told him that anyone on LWOP should not be currently getting jobkeeper. Even if that’s not the case, the government has consistently said they are planning on tightening the future eligibility of jobkeeper, so watch this space.

Second, at the end of the SO webinar, Doug Alley even conceded that they would probably have to revisit LWOP after the 7th of August deadline in the event that they were forced to run a CR program. And why wouldn’t they? Like I said, CR is expensive LWOP isn’t. If it comes to it, surely they will continue to work their way up the list offering LWOP as required knowing people will likely take it over redundancy, hence saving the company money.

The company are not trying to arbitrarily axe X number of pilots. They are trying to manage a pilot surplus through the CHEAPEST means possible. The company have said it many times that LWOP is the cheapest and most preferred option (VR/early Retirement Packages for older pilots are a different proposition for a variety of reason I won’t bother listing). If you think that taking LWOP now is some cunning move because the company will definitely CR the bloke above you, then you’re not thinking it through. You might return to work a couple of months earlier than me if I go on LWOP in a few months from now but you might miss out on months of jobkeeper and I might never have to go on LWOP at all.

Well said, Overspeed. Prepare for the incoming from the amateurs...

I think I’m going to have to spell this out another time, because I seem to be doing it every couple of posts on this thread:

New Zealand is not Australia
The law in New Zealand is different to Australia, as evidenced by this statement from an IR Law firm below:
Employment Law Issues with Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Staff in Australia can be stood down, whereas staff in NZ can’t.
So whatever is happening in Air New Zealand is irrelevant because it’s a different country with different law.

SH has always been the most flexible fleet. If the 330 is flying less domestically and trans Tasman that may be cause to stand up more 737 crew. As well as return of demand in the domestic market. Don’t forget these forecasts are being done for the next 2-3 years. No one, not even the fortune tellers of PPrune, can predict what will happen over the next 2-3 years. On an earlier post I mentioned a 50% capacity return in Europe just weeks after lockdowns were lifted, 80% capacity return in China a few months after lockdowns and a return to full capacity in Japan expected within a few months. Short haul domestic flying is returning fairly rapidly over northern summer, and I’d expect it to return here as the seasons improve as well. International a different story. I think it’s very plausible (and totally legal) for the company to state no SH crew surplus is forecast at all over the next few years, ie no redundancy.

Can a Jetstar long haul pilot essentially knife someone on a narrow body?

Myself and my colleagues are most certainly expecting our wide body part of our base to get the chop, however all those in the left seat (and some right) on the 787 are all ex Airbus Command anyway and don’t want to move cities. They are all ahead of us on the list. Basically they want my job. Some of those people I was informed this week have already been talking of taking my job which upset me this week. I’ve got both sides of the seat on the big twin gunning for my job. That’s a lot of people.

I am happy to sit out for a year or two. Can’t move the family so need to do what I can to maintain my position and fleet. CR would mean I would walk away from the job which would have a bad effect on my mental state considering this is all I’ve done for the last 25 years. Working at Woolworths now really is an eye opener.

Can the moderator repeat Overspeeds post every second day please?

Anybody with an AFR subscription happy to decode this please?

https://www.afr.com/companies/transp...0200710-p55att