Koizi
Thats not how it works. Wish you guys took the time to read your awards and the integration award of 1994.
The company can offer VR/ LWOP/ or Early Termination packages as they see fit to whomever they need to with whatever conditions they deem appropriate. They can then do a RIN as needed. The various awards don't have much by way of rules in these circumstances except for the fact that a RIN is quarantined within the applicable award.
ONLY IF AND WHEN they use CR do the rules change. The integration award takes precedence and redundancy starts at the bottom of the Q seniority list.
Your notion that all the affected pilots then have to do is go on LWOP to avoid redundancy is plain WRONG.

I’m wondering if those posting here are actually reading previous posts on the thread.
I’ll spell it out again:

Australia has stand down provisions, many other countries (inc NZ) do not.
The 190 surplus comes primarily from the 747 retirement and is the forecast surplus til mid 2022.
Unless something changes the remaining pilots are forecast to resume flying at some stage.
So they will remain stood down until that point.
It’s expected the 190 surplus will be primarily managed with VR.
No CR is expected from this process (that’s my opinion I should add)
The forecast on numbers was done til mid 2022, SH flying is expected to be back at normal well before then so no SH redundancies.

AJ previous comments few weeks ago regarding SH come back will be thrown out the window now. Domestic travel will be decimated past mid 2021 unless a vaccine is found. We are already seeing QLD rejection of certain NSW residents as the weeks gone NSW will more than double.

Not a chance

European short haul airlines are already back at 50% capacity by the first week of July, 3.5 months after the pandemic first hit in Europe and a few weeks after travel restrictions started being lifted.

Chinese domestic airlines are at about 80% capacity now compared to 6 months ago when the pandemic started and about two months after travel restrictions were lifted.

Japan’s domestic carriers are back at 66% capacity by end of the month, 80% in August and JAL expects to be at 100% in October.

These spikes will delay travel recovery in the domestic market by a matter of weeks not til the end of next year.

Of course that’s short haul only, solely long haul widebody carriers aren’t faring as well, EK is at 17% and SQ 5%

Well that information is incorrect. The company will be using the clause in the EBA that allows them to bypass seniority for CR.

A firm warning for anyone who thinks they are too senior to avoid CR. It will not save you. CR is coming and the vast majority below you will be taking LWOP to avoid it. Plan wisely.

I’m hearing you Dr, I’m not disagreeing but I’m sure you’re intelligent enough to realize that every time there is an outbreak or hotspot there will be lockdowns rumored VIC going to stage 4 tomorrow, states continuing to not allow NSW/VIC and ACT. I will be shocked if QLD don’t close to NSW residents by weeks end I hope I’m wrong.

Europe still do t have it under control however they see the bigger picture Australian Gov do not.

I think you are perpetuating fear amongst junior crew unnecessary.There is a general consensus that the surplus will be taken care of with VR. IF there is a further surplus before 2022, do you really think TLS & Co will still be promoting being passed over? They may not. And those on LWOP will be exposed the same as the rest. It’s at the companies discretion.

You are speculating, yet you tell it like you know. You are influencing people’s lives and livelihoods. Please be careful.

I disagree. If anything I am trying to save the livelihood of many.

The bypass of seniority for CR will be covered for the duration of the LWOP. So if another surplus happens in 2022 as you said, you will again be passed over.

If your stance is not to take LWOP, I would say be careful of the advice you’re providing as it will affect the livelihood of many junior crew.

do people seriously think TLS, DT, DA, AS etc say this stuff about SH being excluded based on something they’ve made up? QF know exactly what they can do. They have done their homework. We all thought they would t get away with a lot of stuff over the years, but they have. If they say they can skip SH, skip LWOP etc etc, then they are saying based on immensely detailed research and legal consultation. It’s not like those blokes sit there (like we do) and read the various documents and then come up with an opinion. They have been fully briefed on what can and will be done. They (especially DT) would know EXACTLY what kind of a response their position would illicit, they know we all think it’s based on a global list etc. If they say it’s not, then until I see something from AIPA or a successful challenge in court, I have to assume they know what they are talking about. Anything else on here, or on QR is simply the best intended but uninformed opinion of someone who has read the award and has instantly become a lawyer who knows exactly what FWA will do. (Add that to financial expert, sexual god, sky god, disease control expert, microbiologist, marriage counsellor, divorce lawyer, real estate agent, property investor, sailing expert, epidemiologist and most importantly, a grammar expert (which I am not))

this is a fight that no one wants to have. Whatever the outcome, it won’t be pretty. Hopefully CR will be completely avoided.

This is because Europe is a lot larger than Australia and the majority of countries have no restriction for inter-European travel.

The majority of Chinese airlines are state controlled and were instructed to ramp up capacity. The reality is their load factors are well below 50% and should we believe in everything that state propaganda publish?

Japan's second wave of covid is nowhere near the same percentage as what Victoria is experiencing. Let's see how August and JALS predictions turn out........

You are giving them way too much credit. They ‘may’ have a legal opinion but Until FWA rule on something like this, that is all that it is- a lawyers opinion. I suggest any worried crew pick up a phone and ask AIPA directly. As you say it’s all uninformed opinion including yours.

Just what are these percentages?

As of yesterday (13 July) Victoria has had a total of 3967 cases with 24 deaths. (population of 6.4 million)
Japan has had 21,868 cases with 982 deaths. (population of 126 million)

So Japan has twenty times the population of Victoria and forty times the deaths, five and a half times the cases.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...d-case-numbers

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/japan/

If the ‘vast majority’ of junior pilots take LWOP to avoid CR then the company’s cash burn goes to virtually $0 and/or those remaining are still able to do the required flying. Hence no more need for CR.

For crying out loud, sit on your freaking hands until the dust from the VR and early retirement settles and let AIPA do their job of negotiating what variations may be considered. We haven’t even finished the G part of the decision making process and you’re jumping to ‘decide’.

Or alternatively, put in for LWOP immediately. Your call!

If junior crew sit on our freaking hands and do nothing Keg, then by the time VR and early retirement results are out it's too late. This was mentioned multiple times today by people calling in.

Keg I always respect your opinion on this forum, but I feel your stance is easy to justify when you have seniority. If you were in your early 20s with 40 years left in your career at Qantas you would be looking at the situation differently.

I haven't submitted my LWOP application yet. As you alluded to I am still in the gather stage.

I don't agree with this. Apart from 330 freight there is no flying, and there won't be for a year. As mentioned in today's webinar the amount of people who take LWOP won't have an effect on CR as the company is seeing it as two separate issues, a long term surplus and a short-medium term surplus. By taking LWOP you avoid the CR chop if the early retirement / VR package doesn't get the numbers.

I’m sure if they send you a CR letter you’ll still have time to ask for LWOP and I’m pretty confident they’d grant it given that your LWOP request is a truck load cheaper than the 26 weeks they’re going to pay you under CR.

If you’re thinking LWOP in the hope that someone senior gets CR’d, and therefore you’ll come back off LWOP to fly before the CR pilot is re-employed, then you need to keep in mind that if enough pilots take LWOP then no one gets CR’d. Then as a LWOP pilot you’ll come back when they need you- which will effectively be the same time as they would have re-recruited you if you were CR’d anyway. Except now you didn’t get 6 months CR payout.

Anyone want to hazard a guess why LWOP applications to be ‘spared’ CR are REQUIRED before the VR and Early retirement program results are known? As Keg says above they want QF pilots to get to D before you consider the other letters. How do you that? Tell them it’s an incontrollable Fire 🔥

normanton
First and foremost I acknowledge and respect your right to interpret the situation as you see it. Its just a little difficult to rationalise the concept of LWOP then no CR.
If the company makes LWOP available only to a select few then I dare say more senior pilots who have not been given that option would have something to say about it.
Tell me how that makes sense or how it would pass any test of reasonableness. The clause you refer to seems to give the company the OPTION to pass by a pilot. It is not mandated. No doubt you will get the proper advice from people in the know, as you should. All the best.

And there is no guarantee they will accept that. Again, if they go to CR it's because they didn't get enough volunteers for the package. If they are offering to blow 12 months cash on a senior crew member, 26 weeks is nothing for a junior one. The EBA is clear in that it says you must take LWOP before the CR notices are issued.

You will come back when your LWOP finishes (or earlier by mutual agreement). If there is still no flying, they will just stand you down again. You stay connected to the company and you don't have to put up with the HR pre-employment bull**** all over again.

6 moths CR payout gamble is nothing when we are talking about a 40 year career.

But Tino said he wants everyone to take it?

Normanton, you’re not thinking this all the way through. If they send out a CR notice and you say to them ‘hang on a sec, instead of paying me 6 months pay, how about paying me nothing and I’ll just go LWOP until you tell me you need me’ which option do you reckon they’ll take? Mig3 is spot on here.

They have a bucket of money labelled ‘redundancy’. They’re happy to spend it for certain people- particularly those towards the end of their careers. They’d likely prefer to avoid spending it on someone they’re virtually guaranteed to bring back into the fold in just a couple of years time.

Of course Tino wants everyone to take LWOP so that his costs to $0. However If he expects me to be prepared to ‘jump now’ when he needs me then he needs to understand that he has to pay a ‘retainer’ for that privilege.

Keg, that’s not exactly what Mig3 said. They suggested the company may choose to offer more LWOP rather than issue CR.

But I don’t think you have another option once issued with CR.

How does AIPA have this information?

You are linking to the humidity in Los Angeles. You need to read the fine print.

Well the company is doing a good job scaring the wits out of everyone? Especially the junior ones.
Look at the posts here?
In the current climate it’s inexcusable!
Re Mig3’s post for the most factual information for those junior!
Focus on the light at the end of the tunnel. Everyday is one step closer.

The company will push SLWOP/LWOP before they move to CR......it makes economic sense.....saves spending their cash reserves. So the juniors should not be panicking at all. Remember on this forum there is a lot of “self-interest” postings...it’s actually quite easy to work out who they are, based on what and how often they post! AIPA is still working for the benefit of all pilots regardless of seniority or what LH/SH they are in. No time to panic!!!

I would also argue the ones advocating to sit on their hands are probably at risk without the buffer below if it got down to it.

The reality is, there won’t be international flying for quite some time. LWOP will give some certainty and allow you to gain other employment while awaiting the return to flying. It’s also extendable. So if things are looking bad approaching your return date, you simply extend it.

A recent Deloitte report suggests domestic travel volumes will not return to 2019 levels until 2023. Thats domestic. International is worse.
Available here
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...ry-until-2023/

Some very negative consumer sentiment graphs, with the last data point being 27 June. At that date, 20% of population surveyed felt safe flying. Nothing good has happened since 27 June.

Airline management will be closely looking at this (and similar) reports.

Blueskymine, you know ‘sit on your hands’ doesn’t mean forever? It just means that no one needs to jump immediately to LWOP until we have more information about how effective VR has been. By all means consider it as a possibility down the track but for the moment? Until the results of VR are known? There’s no decision yet to be made so don’t make it!

For goodness sake the lords of pprune and the seniority lists urging people to "hang in there" , easy to do when your position is highly likely safe
or putting forward the view "it's all a big bluff" or "call AIPA - they have all wisdom & knowledge"

The deadline for LWOP is less than 4 weeks away so you won't get to do an analysis of VR before making a decision

Assume this LWOP window is the only one you will get

Or "hang in there" continue to accrue your ever so precious entitlements (its all about the entitlements !) then get a larger payout when CR does fall on
your low seniority number. So you walk out the door with more annual leave dollars , more long service leave dollars and the 3 months CR payout dollars , and the
3 or 4 weeks for each year of service & be proud that you didn't give an inch of your "entitlements". But also understand that you will only be re-employed when QF
opens employment and that will likely be ten years away

I wonder if Deloittes showed those graphics to the bidders for VA.

Keg, as a few people have suggested, can you actually read the email, look at the applicable dates and tell us how people have time to sit on their hands to see how VR will play out before applying for LWOP.

It’s a big gamble. Don’t take LWOP and have the risk of being made CR, as TLS has said there’s currently a 1500 pilot surplus in international. Although re employment will be done in seniority order, you will lose any seniority accrued and placed on the bottom of the list, behind those who did take LWOP.

JobKeeper review announcement is one week away, next Thursday 23rd. Instead of trying to instil fear on here and in all your little whatsapp group(-think) messages, why don't you go and get a job at Dan Murphy's - then you can apply for (S)LWOP fat, dumb and happy (when that time comes) because you actually have a job to go to. I vehemently disagreed with Keg when it came to our recent EBA but couldn't agree more with what he's saying here. Please just see that people are dumbfounded as to why you'd jump at LWOP immediately. I mean, go for it, or don't - we're just sitting here scratching our heads as to why you'd leap in to a defined LWOP period without knowing anywhere near all the information.

There's a reason the CR provisions are so cumbersome. I've been very critical of AIPA on here but they're saying/doing/supporting all the right things (at the moment) that will help everyone, as long as people don't fly off the rails in the mean time. So sit on your hands!

Also, normanton, the more he/she/they post, the more they give away that they don't actually work for QF: there aren't any QF pilots in their "early twenties".

Also, normanton, the more he/she/they post, the more they give away that they don't actually work for QF: there aren't any QF pilots in their "early twenties".[/QUOTE]


Actually, there’s a fair few. Difficult to tell some apart from the kids who board in their Joey Club costumes.

Obviously everyone’s financial circumstances and leave balances are different, but taking LWOP and simply relying on an extension to Jobkeeper, plus a bit of casual work (which is getting increasingly hard to find), would be barely enough to keep my young family’s head above water in the long term. By remaining stood down and on the books, at least I can access something as little as 1/4 paid leave which would make a huge difference.

Go out and have a look at the job market for an unskilled Pilot, it’s nasty and competitive, especially when people think you’re just going to leave as soon as QF come calling. Obviously we don’t know when that time will be but jumping straight into LWOP looks like the riskier option if you ask me.

You just lost all credibility.

Actually, there’s a fair few. Difficult to tell some apart from the kids who board in their Joey Club costumes.[/QUOTE]
:rolleyes:
really? Whilst folks consider how bad their career is going/CR you go down this path? Sad and pathetic

Sorry normo, but QF accidentally put up a seniority list yesterday with everyone's birthdays on it - There's no one under 25. Were you just scaremongering again?

I expect the management and Boards of most airlines will have commissioned their own research. Moving planes to the desert and long term restructuring of the workforce are significant undertakings. If they get these calls wrong, they can always say "We acted on the best possible independent research...."
Same for any prospective purchasers of airlines.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....417373ab90.png

Honest Q: the thread title is QF group, is the list "put up accidentally" for Qantas or the Qantas Group?

Just find it difficult to believe there'd no-one under 25 within the QF group, even QF Mainline (or whatever it's called these days) would have expected a few young'uns to slip through.

Cheers