Wow!
Thanks for clearing that up...

I really hope I am proved wrong 34R

I suspect you are right.

There had already been a progressive transfer of risk to the individual eg casualisation of the workforce, more superannuation & less pension ....

COVID will dramatically accelerate this.

The world is going to look very different. It some ways, better maybe. It other ways, I fear worse.

But change is here. Embrace it, or it will embrace you.

Qantas have said over and over again that any RIN will be in accordance with the contract at an appropriate time.

The red herring is how long they can keep crews stood down for. Qantas thinks there is no limit. That is where the debate will be. Not about a CR by fleet.

Crikey, I’ve no objection to people disagreeing with me but ‘elder statesman’? That’s just a low blow, particularly when I’m still south of 50! :eek: :sad: :{:ok:

JQ officially planning on 787 being grounded until mid 2021, I’d imagine QF would be similar.

Like everything else: it depends. If domestic travel ramps up to say 60% of 2019 and Virgin has a lengthy rebirth then you can imagine a scenario involving some 787 and 330s doing some domestic with crews rotating through the available flying.

STOP talking common sense!

That point has been raised multiple times by JQ 787 guys but has been flatly rejected by the company. Unlike QF, JQ don’t have the infrastructure set up for WB domestic operations. The fleet is being put into long term storage and the 787 pilots aren’t being put through the sim to maintain currency, unlike the NB pilots.

I think you’ll find there will be travel bubbles with Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong by the end of the year in addition to NZ and the Pacific Islands if not then very early next year. They’ll be huge pressure from business and tourism to get the things moving. Qf domestic will be busy with Virgin being a substantially smaller operation.

Makes more sense to run an A330 with a denser config than a 787. Unless the 787 is continuing on with range considerations then they’ll stay in bed until required.

Ozbiggles, interest rates are around 0.4% for the government at the moment, do you think taking on debt is bad?

It’s common sense money is free atm and you would be mad not to use it.

The debt has to be repaid at some stage, regardless of the interest rate. Free money? Really...best laugh all day. You are telling me in excess of 100 billion dollars debt is free? I think I will go borrow a free 100 million for me tomorrow.
Debt is Debt.
Why doesn’t Qantas borrow another 6 billon if it’s free?
Why doesn’t VA just borrow 6.2 Billion for free?

The shenanigans the Fed are getting away with are insane and make what we’re doing look a-ok, raising the dole a bit (should’ve been done years ago) and paying some people’s wages for 6 months. Adds to the debt but the alternative is mass homelessness and kids starving.

At least our government isn’t doing anything stupid like buying Virgins debt for face value.

The best advice of this thread. Those who fear change are going to struggle over the next several years.

Several years? All these random time lines. Honestly, no one has a clue when and what post covid will be like.

Or if there will even be a ‘post covid’

Been told 787 wont do domestic flying as the power by the hour deal will cost them a lot of money when its combined with high cycles(short sectors as in domestic flying)
330 much cheaper to operate on domestic sectors.

True. The future is unclear.

But if you don't plan your future, others will plan it for you. Guess what they have planned? Nothing good.

So plan for aviation to be very different for years to come
Short term = next few months = effectively shut down with very limited domestic operations
Medium term = next 6-12 months = reduced operations, with domestic recovering before international
Long term - a progressive and gradual return towards business as before. However there will be some permanent change. This has been too disruptive to our collective psychology and to the economy to expect there won't be a long term consequence. Major events change the world, and there is a "before" and an "after" COVID is such an event.

The medium term is the important thing to focus on right now. I expect
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). This will hit airline revenue. Hard. A minority of seats count for most of the profit.
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y.

Leisure V business:
Leisure will recover faster, but will be to different destinations. People will want to travel, and can't get the holiday experience by Zoom.
Business will be harder hit. Fewer conferences. For business meetings, the bean-counters and CEOs will be saying "Well, zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....." In addition to saving $, businesses will think about their liability and reduced productivity if an employee contracted COVID during work-related travel when there was a safer alternative.

Domestic V International
Domestic will obviously recover faster. But even domestic will be affected long term by reduced business travel - there will be reduced business travel between east coast cities, with less day trips for a 1 hour meeting
International business will also be hit hard.
Leisure is the market which will bounce back faster.
NZ will be an early one to open, and people will travel to NZ if that is where they can go.
South Pacific Islands will likely be early. These countries will miss the cruise ship industry, and will be keen to open their economies to tourists from safe destinations. So New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa.
Hawaii may be another viable destination. This will also be missing the cruise industry. Only 700 cases in total. Non-stop, people will decide they can wear a mask for 8 hours if they are the rules. Will be in high demand by tourists seeking more than just a sandy beach.
Bali and Singapore are possible early recoveries, depending on what unfolds there over the next few months.
Long haul will be slowest to recover. Family budgets have been hard hit, and many people won't have the money and won't be able to afford the time away. There will be some of course, but numbers will be way down. The exception will be families keen to reunite after a year or more of not being able to catch up.

So, that is the future I would plan for. And I expect that is the future the airlines are planning for.