I agree, the loss of jobs occurring is very stressful and I have several friends in dire circumstances. There is nothing funny at all about job loss and I didn't mean to imply anything to the contrary.

What is amusing and the subject of my previous post is that even in these desperate times, men are still conspiracy theorizing about mythical quotas that could see women move beyond the pathetic 5% of the cockpit seats they presently occupy.

Hence my comment about exclusivity.

It's something our friend from NZ in later comments clearly does not understand.

Isn't a pilot a pilot a pilot? Or at least I thought that was the case.

The point was, even if it’s only 5%, if a group of them are made redundant, there will no doubt be a push by HR to re-employ at a different, more “equal” ratio down the track..

Back in February on another thread, I was warning this was going to be huge. I was repeatedly told "this virus has nothing to do with aviation so take your opinions elsewhere", as well as receiving the benefit of several lessons in high school math regarding exponential growth curves and log functions.

Anyway, that was a few months ago. I think the latest data suggests fairly strongly that we are further through this than we think, and that society overall will recover a bit faster than many think. Look at the ASX and NYSE.

I don't think there will be a devastating 2nd wave. Yes cases will increase as measures are relaxed. However there is very little chance we will need to lockdown again.

Sure, cases are increasing in parts of the USA. Behind the headline total numbers however, the % hospitalised and the % who die are falling significantly. The explanation is that with increased testing capacity, they are finding more of the milder cases that were always there but not diagnosed initially. It now appears clear the mortality rate is way under 1% (and closer to 0.1% for those under 60).

However, it will be a very different world for aviation for years to come
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). Businesses will be saying "Zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....."
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y

So aviation will recover sooner than we think. But it will be a different world. Airlines and their workforce will need to plan accordingly.

Embrace change, or else it will embrace you.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...hcOp82UzxwEQpM

Qantas looks to mothball it’s flagship Airbus A380s

TT , QF can employ 100% diversity if or when they chose if they employ externals

Compulsory redundancies are re-employed in seniority order

So why does diversity employment atm even rate a mention

Mainline didn't employ externals for 8 years post GFC , so long time to employ any externals now

Just take the very generous & prescriptive CR dollars and put the guaranteed re-employment slip in your back pocket

Your leader will probably be sipping pink daiquiris at a luxurious penthouse on South Beach or yodeling from atop a luxurious villa in the Swiss Alps by that time
but you can't change that

the A380 fleet will only ever return to maximum of six. That confirms it. The aircraft the haven’t been redone are finished.

I have heard that Jetstar is planning on the 787 being grounded for another 9 months, so no realistic plans for international travel until March/April 2021.

Not really realistic given that there is a small amount of international travel even now. This will lift faster and harder than the media are portraying. Their focus now is second wave fear.

Even when the borders do open up I can’t see the demand coming back for another 12+ months beyond that for 500 seats a day between SYD/ MEL and LAX, or SYD/MEL- LHR.

I can see demand coming back that would require smaller aeroplanes to fly that schedule though. Aeroplanes that Qantas currently doesn’t have enough of!

If QF took JQs 11 787s that would be 22 787s and 28 A330s. Would that be enough to cover QFs international network post COVID?

Really?
Qantas and Air NZ parking up their international fleets in deserts fills you full of confidence?
2nd waves breaking out in the States fills you full of confidence?
The majority of cases in NZ and Aus are being bought in from overseas fills you full of confidence?
The tourism minister today saying he doesn’t know when it is going to happen and saying the tourism industry is going to be hit the longest fills you with confidence?
You are not seeing travel at the moment, you are seeing citizens returning home for a 14 day stay in a hotel.
I mean I’d love to have a leprechaun to find me a pot of gold but I think I will tune into reality first.

Yes but I’ve been told previously the JQ 787s are ‘unsuitable’ to be converted to mainline configuration (crew rest the biggest issue but not the only one) and QF would be better off just sourcing new airframes and trying to sell the JQ airframes. That said, they’ve already put out an EOI for at least some of those airframes and I’m not sure they have received or will receive much interest in them.

Of course if a vaccine is discovered before the end of the year then it’s going to be a V and I can see demand for the A380s coming back pretty quickly. Without that vaccine though.....

You guys need to get a grasp of reality

The Chief Medical Officers say vaccine 12 to 18 months "best case" ; 18 months is a "best case" , that is September 2021

A vaccine to this point has never been successfully developed for any Coronavirus

Our state borders remain closed

If you are back to 50% of international two years post pandemic - well that would be incredible

Let’s face some reality if I may. There has never been a successful corona vaccine. The 6 380s go next month as I posted days ago, the 747s are finished, the Jetstar 787s can be used on some Qantas routes as they are ie Bali, New Zealand and domestic. The number of infections are surging in Mexico, South America, India, Pakistan and The Middle East. The death rate has dropped however BUT Florida as an example is reporting a mutation that makes it easier to spread. As the minister has said no international travel from Australia till 2021 and he didn’t say when in 2021. Qantas has to many long haul pilots and that’s a fact also I think it’s fair to say they don’t want to keep paying 51 days leave per year to pilots stood down. I think it’s fair to see there will be a VR. If that doesn’t get the numbers where they want them then they will look at other options. This doesn’t only apply tp pilots but CC , engineers, etc. Good luck to everyone and keep well.

Let’s not forget that the ASX/DJI hit their all time highs in mid-late Feb AFTER the initial travel bans had been enacted and more importantly after many experts in the field had warned of the severe impact.

The stock market isn’t the worst indicator of where things are going but it’s far from the best.

Yes. Previous CV vaccine research ran into problems. Far from being protective, vaccinated animals did worse when subsequently exposed to the virus. In the end, SARS disappeared and CV vaccine research was shelved with some warnings for future potential researchers.

A vaccine is possible. Sure. A lot of $ are being thrown at this. But it remains highly speculative. As do any plans dependent on a vaccine.

Assume no vaccine - it hasn't been done before

If people were to hazard a guess what do you think the numbers let go around the group would be ? or %

Will it be similar to NZ mainline around 30 % , they let go 380 then 100 more ? Qlink ? , Jetstar ?

If those who have to leave can be re-employed with other QF group airlines , well that is way better than nothing

TAB etc do a better job of picking winners (sports or elections) than do professional pollsters. Partly because people place their $ on what they honestly believe the outcome will be - not on the outcome they hope for. Partly because of the large numbers of people involved in the markets tend to cancel out bias (scorpion submarine).

I have seen a number of financial analyses peering into the COVID crystal ball. They have been better than the medical analyses. I suspect this is because the financial guys just look at the data and try to see a pattern, rather than trying to get the data it to fit a preconceived model. Perhaps also the financial guys are better funded / resourced.

Sure the markets were slow to price in the bad news. So was just about everyone. But my guess is the pros did ok. It’s unusually the mugs who pile in at the end of a Ponzi scheme who do their dough.

In a week or so we will have a better idea.....however it has been said by TLS, ‘we (Qantas) have to plan for the worst’.

Even if a vaccine was proved late this year, there is the issue of global distribution. Vaccine passport anyone? The likelihood of Qantas PLANNING for any long haul schedule in FY21 is slim. This is backed up by Jefferies’ analysis. Of course, they want the flexibility to ramp up though.

They will transfer as much ‘risk’ to employees as possible whilst reducing their own cash burn. This means any non essential RIN will be delayed. 747 RIN will happen. Redundancies will be minimised as they are expensive compared to existing stand down provisions but some will be offered. Some may be forced. Consequently, the majority should expect to be stood down for another year. Qantas’ prerogative is to minimise costs. In the pilot division that doesn’t necessarily mean a massive headcount reduction. It’s not that we’re ‘family’, it’s because it COSTS LESS.

The company and the association have said no decisions have been made. It is absolute rubbish. The management of those decisions are being explored but they have a strategy and just need the board to sign off on it. Making certain your own personal circumstances would be sound advice. Don’t be the one left staring at the headlights.

Unlike the sharemarkets, aviation profit and the success of their workers is not based on sentiment.